EU Science Hub

Improved yield outlook in southern Europe, expectations reduced in northern regions

The yield outlook for winter cereals in the EU has slightly improved, thanks to favourable weather conditions in southern regions.
May 20 2019

The May issue of the JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe - was published today, alongside the Turkey edition of the JRC MARS Bulletin global outlook series.

According to the crop monitoring Bulletin for Europe, above-average rainfall in Italy, south-eastern Europe and south-eastern parts of the Iberian Peninsula instigated the replenishment of soil moisture reserves, which in several regions had been critically low, with substantial benefits for winter crops and the early development of spring- and summer crops.

Large parts of northern-central Europe experienced a marked rainfall deficit since mid-March. April was particularly dry in these regions. Winter crops are negatively affected in northern Poland, eastern and north-eastern Germany and north-western Czechia, especially those on light sandy soils. Emerging spring and summer crops were also impacted.

On balance, the improvements to the yield outlook for winter cereals in southern Europe were largely offset by reduced yield forecasts in northern regions, resulting in a slight upward revision at the EU level.

The distinctly colder-than-usual conditions that occurred in large parts of Europe in early May slowed down winter crop development, but frost damage to annual crops (such as flowering rapeseed stands) was limited to local occurrences.

According to the MARS Bulletin global outlook – Turkey, winter cereals are progressing well, and above-average yields are forecast. For summer crops, which experienced a positive start to the season, the forecasts are still based on historical trends.

Crops are faring well in western and central Anatolian regions, which had an overall good start to the season and no wintering problems. In south-eastern regions, which had a mediocre start to the season followed by abundant precipitation and mixed crop conditions, crop yield expectations are generally favourable.

Further information