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Options to improve food security in North Africa: CGE modelling of deeper trade and investment integration with the European Union

This paper presents some macro and food security impacts of deeper economic integration between the European Union and three North African countries, namely Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia. It conducts a quantitative impact assessment of increase in trade and investment flows using the Modular Applied General Equilibrium Tool (MAGNET). Trade liberalization enhances food security by counteracting the rise in food prices, fostered by growing demand for agricultural products in North Africa. Investments either on the whole economy or targeted to cutting down losses (waste) in food production are modelled. Results suggest that economic growth is stimulated mostly by widespread productivity gains (not restricted to agri-food sector) and boosted by trade integration through removal of non-tariff measures.