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Hierarchical species distribution models in support of vegetation conservation at the landscape scale

Abstract: 
Questions: Species distribution models (SDMs) based on habitat suitability and niche quantification are powerful tools in vegetation science. Recent findings suggest that they could be applied at the landscape scale as vegetation conservation tools, but that some environmental dimensions (e.g., climate) need to be considered at larger scales. What is the importance of applying hierarchical SDMs combining information from different scales to ensure consistent local vegetation management decisions? Study Site: Mainland Spain and Biosphere Reserve of Sierra del Rincón (central Spain). Methods: We generated SDMs for five tree species at the regional scale (mainland Spain) using climatic variables plus presence/absence data from the Spanish National Forest Inventory; and at the landscape scale (Sierra del Rincón Biosphere Reserve) using local environmental variables plus locally gathered vegetation presence/absence data. Predictions of both regional and landscape models were combined at the landscape scale following two different hierarchical approaches. The four resulting predictions were compared with correlation coefficients and independently evaluated with the AUC statistic and data collected in the study area. Results: The regional SDMs depict suitable climatic conditions for the tree species, while the landscape SDMs capture important local ecological drivers that influence habitat suitability at finer scales. Expectedly, the regional SDMs predict larger suitable areas than the landscape SDMs. The redictions from the hierarchical approaches are reliable and provide on average better results than non-hierarchical ones. Conclusions: SDMs can be valuable tools for local plant conservation programs. We present examples of the applicability of a hierarchical modeling approach and conceptual and methodological solutions related to the use of these tools in local vegetation conservation programs. For example, we show that landscape SDMs could be used to determine the current distribution of endangered plant species, while a hierarchical approach would be better suited to define areas to re-vegetate within a local restoration program.