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Global macroeconomic balances for mid-century climate analyses

Abstract: 
In this document the economic balances for the Baseline scenario used in the Global Energy and Climate Outlook (GECO) 2018 are presented. The Baseline scenario represents a projection of the world economy with corresponding energy demand and GHGs emissions under the assumption of current climate and energy policies and also realization of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) in line with Paris agreement. As this scenario still does not allow avoiding catastrophic climate change in the future, it is used as a reference to compare alternative scenarios with more stringent policy measures. Economic balances are supplemented by energy balances, where the latter are coming from energy models, but are consistent with economic data. Finally we show GHGs evolution over time that comes from economic activity presented in the Baseline. The procedure that was used to generate Baseline scenario is called PIRAMID which stands for: Platform to Integrate, Reconcile and Align Model-based Input-output Data. PIRAMID is a new methodology to project Multi-Regional Input-Output tables over time. This approach allows for integrating data from external models and databases. The result is a series of consistent and transparent IO tables.