EU Science Hub

MARS Bulletin Vol.19 No.14 - Crop Yield Forecast

Abstract: 
HIGHLIGHT Total wheat production is revised down since last MARS Bulletin (26th July) by -0.4 % and is forecast at 136,47 Mt which is lower than last year production (-2.1%) but still higher than the last five years’ production (+1.3 %). The production of soft wheat is forecast at 128,48 Mt at EU27 level which is -1.5 % lower than the production in 2010 (-1.5%) but +2.1 % if it is compared to 5 years average. The decrease of production in comparison to last year reflects mainly the decrease of the acreage (-1.5 % vs 2010). Similar trend for durum wheat: the production is forecast at 7,99 Mt - much lower than the production in 2010 (-9.9 %) and 5 years’ average (-11.2%) due to a decrease of the acreage (-10.5% at EU27 level vs 2010). Total barley production (53,73 Mt) is also lower than our previous forecast (-0.8%) as a consequence of the decrease of both acreage and yield forecast. Barley production is –8.5 % lower than last five years’ average. The production of winter barley (24.73 Mt) is -8.4 % lower the production in 2010, which is the result of both the decrease of the acreage (-6.5 % vs 2010) and the yield forecast (-2.1 % vs 2010). On the contrary, spring barley production (28,99 Mt) is forecast +9.8% higher than last year due to an increase of both the yield and the acreage ( +4.2 % and +5.4 % respectively – vs 2010). The production for grain maize (61,51 Mt) was revised up since our last forecast (+0.5 %). In comparison to 2010, grain maize production is +5.9 % higher. Rapeseed production is also slightly revised down (-0.1 %) and is forecast at 19,11 Mt. This is in line with last five years’ average (+0.8 %) but much lower than the production in 2010 (-6.3 %). At EU27 level, the yield forecast and the acreage are lower than those in 2010 ( -2.4 % and -4.0 % respectively).