EU Science Hub

MARS Bulletin - Vol.19 No.11 - Agrometeorological analysis, remote sensing and yield forecast

A rather wet period for most of Europe with high total rainfall in Poland, Ukraine, Romania, Czech Republic, Slovakia, southern Germany and eastern France. Temperature accumulation was average for most of Europe but higher for southern Spain, Italy and Greece. There were persistent high temperatures around the Black Sea towards the end of July. Total wheat production for the EU27 is forecasted at 137.03Mt, which is 1.6 % less than the production in 2010, and is due to a reduction of both soft (-1.3 %) and durum wheat (-7.3 %). The acreage for both cereals is lower than last year, -2.1 % and -8.6 % respectively. Compared to our last bulletin, soft wheat forecast is revised upwards (from 5.5 t/ha to 5.6 t/ha at EU27 level) due to the beneficial grain filling phase in Germany, France and the United Kingdom and higher yield forecasts for Romania and Poland just like in the past. The production forecast for barley (54.15 Mt) is comparable to 2010. Winter barley yields and areas are below 2010 figures but spring barley is clearly above, mainly because of excellent yields in Spain. Seasonal production of grain maize is currently forecasted at 61.21 Mt, and as such, is above the 5-year average, but some recent hot spells have given rise to concerns for Hungary and Romania. Rapeseed yields in the EU 27 are less than those from last year and below the 5-year average due to adverse weather conditions in the main producing countries throughout the season.