EU Science Hub

The Future of Migration in the European Union: Future scenarios and tools to stimulate forward-looking discussions

Abstract: 
This report presents trends that are likely to impact the future of migration in the European Union and delineates four possible future migration scenarios towards 2030. These narrative scenarios are then applied into a set of interactive tools that stimulate forward-looking and strategic discussions about migration and integration. The tools can be used to involve various actors that shape migration policymaking and research in constructive and non-divisive debates about these otherwise highly politicised matters. Whereas the 2030 migration scenarios are fairly general, the report offers examples of how they can be used to zoom-in on specific thematic areas such as foreign and security policy, labour market policies and integration policies and how to explore future implications of different migration developments on these policy areas. A group of invited experts contributed to the report with their take on how the four scenarios could play out in different parts of the world including the European Union, its neighbourhood, sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. The tools are included in the Migration discussion toolkit that constitutes the second part of this report. They are presented in a practical recipe-style format and are accompanied by templates and other visual aids that help facilitate discussions and harvest their outcomes.