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Cumulative economic impact of trade agreements on EU agriculture

Abstract: 

This report investigates the potential effects of 12 free trade agreements (FTAs) under the current EU trade agenda. For this, it quantifies the cumulated sectoral impacts in terms of bilateral trade, production, demand, and price developments. Moreover, it provides insights on the evolution of supply, demand, and farm-gate prices for the most relevant EU agricultural commodity markets. In contrast to a forecast exercise, this analysis compares two variants of a trade liberalisation scenario (conservative and ambitious) to a businessas-usual (baseline) situation in 2030. The study confirms that the analysed free trade agreements have the potential to benefit the EU agri-food sector when considered simultaneously. It also highlights the vulnerability of the beef, sheep meat, poultry, sugar, and rice sectors.