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Comparing post-crisis dynamics across Euro Area countries with the Global Multi-country model

Abstract: 

Following the global financial crisis, the Euro Area (EA) has experienced a persistent slump and notable tradebalance adjustments, but with pronounced differences across EA Member States. We estimate a multi-countrystructural macroeconomic model to assess and compare the main drivers of GDP growth and trade balanceadjustment across Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. We find that the pronounced post-crisis slump in Italyand Spain was mainly driven by positive saving shocks (‘deleveraging’) and by an increase in investment andintra-euro risk premia. Fiscal austerity in Spain and the productivity slowdown in Italy have been additionalsizable contributors to the economic downturn. The results further suggest that euro depreciation, heightenedintra-euro risk premia and subdued investment had a sizable impact on the trade balance reversals in Italy andSpain, which has been offset in France by a strong increase in imports and lower exports.