When all models are wrong: More stringent quality criteria are needed for models used at the science-policy interface
Abstract: In order to ensure quality in the treatment of uncertainty of science for policy more rigorous appraisal methods are needed to substantiate the inference offered via mathematical modelling. Seven rules are suggested to extend the use of classic sensitivity analysis to sensitivity auditing of models used in a policy context. Examples illustrates the various rules. The present articles draws on a more technical paper published on Foresight and Innovation Policy, Special Issue on Plausibility.
As the Commission's in-house science service, the Joint Research Centre's mission is to provide EU policies with independent, evidence-based scientific and technical support throughout the whole policy cycle. Working in close cooperation with policy Directorates-General, the JRC addresses key societal challenges while stimulating innovation through developing new methods, tools and standards, and sharing its know-how with the Member States, the scientific community and international partners.