Climate impact of transportation A model comparison

Abstract: 

Transportation contributes to a significant and rising share of global energy use and GHG emissions. Therefore modeling future travel demand, its fuel use, and resulting CO2 emission is highly relevant for climate change mitigation. In this study we compare the baseline projections for global service demand (passenger-kilometers, ton-kilometers), fuel use, and CO2 emissions of five different global transportmodels using harmonized input assumptions on income and population. For fourmodels we also evaluate the impact of a carbon tax.All models project a steep increase in service demand over the century. Technology change is important for limiting energy consumption and CO2 emissions, the study also shows that in order to stabilise or even decrease emissions radical changes would be required.While all models project liquid fossil fuels dominating up to 2050, they differ regarding the use of alternative fuels (natural gas, hydrogen, biofuels, and electricity), because of different fuel price projections. The carbon tax of 200 USD/tCO2 in 2050 stabilizes or reverses global emission growth in all models. Besides common findings many differences in the model assumptions and projections indicate roomfor further understanding long-term trends and uncertainty in future transport systems.

Authors
Authors: 
GRAHN Maria, KYLE Page, KIM Son H, GIROD Bastien, VAN VUUREN Detlef, KITOUS Alban Gabriel
Publication Year
Publication Year: 
2013
Type

Type:

Appears in Collections
Appears in Collections: 
Institute for Prospective Technological Studies
Science Areas
JRC Institutes
Publisher
Publisher: 
SPRINGER
ISSN
ISSN: 
0165-0009
URI
URI : 
Citation
Citation: 
CLIMATIC CHANGE p. 595-608 no. 3-4 vol. 118