The tourism model estimates changes in tourism revenues according to an econometric analysis of the relationship between regional tourism demand (bednights at NUTS2 level) and regional climate conditions.
The methodology for the tourism analysis involves deriving a hedonic price index of tourism services, which gives an estimate of tourists' marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) for climate-related amenities (temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed) in EU regions. A series of regional demand equations is estimated relating demand (total monthly bednights) to climatic conditions and other control variables. This is then converted into estimates of changes in tourism expenditure due to climate change.
Main results and findings
In both the Reference and 2°C runs, the effect of climate change on tourism expenditure is negligible (-5%) at overall EU level. However, Southern Europe is expected to be more adversely affected, with a decrease in expenditure of 11% in both cases.
Barrios S, Ibañez JN (2013).
Tourism demand, climatic conditions and transport costs: an integrated analysis for EU regions. Report for the PESETA II study on the impact of climate change in Europe.
JRC Scientific and Policy Reports 25937 EN.