EU Science Hub

Sea level rise

Sea level rise impacts can include land loss due to erosion and flooding due to storm surges and the backwater effect on rivers.

Methodology

Coastal impacts are in general derived from the DIVA (Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment) model, as simulated in the ClimateCost project (Brown et al. 2011). DIVA is an integrated model of coastal systems that assesses the biophysical and socioeconomic impacts of sea level rise and socio-economic development.

Main results and findings

In the Reference run, estimated damages due to sea floods are estimated at €17 billion, compared to €5 billion in the control period, and €14 billion in the 2°C run. Around half of control period damages occur in the Central Europe North region (which includes the Netherlands), and this is estimated to continue with Reference run impacts in this region increasing from around €2.5 billion to €9.5 billion. Furthermore, under the Reference run UK & Ireland and Central Europe South are estimated to incur damage costs as great as those experienced in Central Europe North today. Southern Europe is estimated to experience the greatest increase in damages in relative terms, increasing from around €160 million in the control period to over €900 billion in both the Reference and 2°C runs.

References

Brown S, Nicholls RJ, Vafeidis A, Hinkel J, and Watkiss P (2011).
The Impacts and Economic Costs of Sea-Level Rise in Europe and the Costs and Benefits of Adaptation. Summary of Results from the EC RTD ClimateCost Project. In Watkiss, P (Editor), 2011. The ClimateCost Project. Final Report. Volume 1: Europe. Published by the Stockholm Environment Institute, Sweden, 2011. ISBN 978-91-86125-35-6.
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