We are doing science for policy
The Joint Research Centre (JRC) is the European Commission's science and knowledge service which employs scientists to carry out research in order to provide independent scientific advice and support to EU policy.
The objective of the JRC PESETA II project (Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in Sectors of the European Union based on bottom-up Analysis) is to make a consistent multi-sectoral assessment of the impacts of climate change in Europe for the 2071-2100 time horizon. The project methodology has two distinctive features. Firstly, it is based on bottom-up biophysical impact models results. Bottom-up models take into account the relationship between climate change and biophysical impacts in a structural way, modelling all the relevant interactions and mechanisms. Secondly, the assessment is made in a consistent way, where all biophysical impact models use the same climate data, and take into account other horizontal issues. Most of the modelling work of PESETA II has been made within the Joint Research Center (JRC) of the European Commission.
The project is largely based on the knowledge and experience derived from the previous PESETA project, concluded in 2009.
JRC PESETA II project goes beyond PESETA as it considers more impact categories and more climate runs. PESETA considered the impacts in five areas: agriculture, coastal systems, river floods, tourism and human health. PESETA II extends the coverage to nine areas, adding energy, transport infrastructure, forest fires, and habitat suitability. Furthermore, while PESETA looks at four climate runs, in PESETA II up to 15 climate runs have been modelled by some of the sectoral teams.
Both PESETA and PESETA II projects have largely benefited from past DG Research projects that have developed impact modelling capabilities (e.g. the FP7 ClimateCost project) and high-resolution climate scenarios for Europe (the FP6 ENSEMBLES project). In particular, the economic assessment of PESETA II uses impact evidence on coastal impacts and agriculture in the 2080s from the FP7 ClimateCost project, which is greatly acknowledged.
The main motivation of launching the series of climate impact assessments has been to better understand how climate change can affect Europe, in order to derive useful insights for climate adaptation. That requires high resolution climate impact assessment. Therefore, for sectors where data is available, the PESETA methodology has employed high time-space resolution climate data, feeding highly detailed sector-specific impact models to estimate the biophysical impacts.
Such a structural approach, as opposed to the reduced form formulation, aims to integrate knowledge on climate impacts from the various natural science disciplines into the economic analysis in a consistent manner. In this way, the approach benefits from the many rich recent developments in modelling biophysical climate impacts and modelling regional climate change.
Results of the PESETA II project are presented briefly on the pages of this website, and in full in the PESETA II final report. These replace the preliminary results which were published in the Impact Assessment accompanying the EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change, 16 April 2013.
The project uses climate data from the FP6 ENSEMBLES project, and impact estimates for agriculture and sea level rise from the FP7 ClimateCost project. The authors wish to thank Daniela Jacob for providing the E1 climate data, and the members of the PESETA II project Advisory Board and JRC colleagues for their very useful comments and feedbacks.
The new JRC PESETA III project (starting in January 2016) aims to support the implementation of Action 4 of the EU Adaptation Strategy by deepening and further refining existing JRC bottom-up analyses of climate change impacts. It will moreover contribute to report on the Strategy's implementation that the Commission will have to present to the European Council and Parliament in 2017.
The JRC PESETA III project, compared to JRC PESETA II, will develop projections for a shorter time horizon (2030-2040) – in addition to the end of the century analysis –, use the new family of climate futures (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs, and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs), and have an explicit focus on assessing impacts of extreme events and their costs. JRC PESETA III will moreover try to define more in detail the cost of inaction and possible adaptation options, including their effectiveness.
A common set of five climate scenarios (from WCRP EURO-CORDEX, RCP 8.5) will be run by all biophysical impact models with a strategic focus on the biophysical dimension of impacts, the 2030s time horizon, extreme events and the exploration of various adaptation options.
The JRC PESETA III project will implement a three-stage approach similar to that of the JRC PESETA II project. In the first step, the climate simulations are selected, which are indeed the primary climate data for all biophysical models. In the second step, the biophysical impact models are run to compute the biophysical impacts generated by each specific climate change simulation. In the third step, the biophysical and direct impacts are consistently valued in macro-economic terms through a multi-sector computable general equilibrium model.
The project will consider impacts on agriculture, energy, transport, river floods, coasts, droughts, habitat loss, forest fires, water, and human health.