First published on
17 October 2017
Discussion Paper 070

Evaluating Medium Term Forecasting Methods and their Implications for EU Output Gap Calculations


This paper discusses the accuracy and merits of the EU's common methodology for calculating output gaps.


Kieran Mc Morrow, Werner Roege and Valerie Vandermeulen

Information and identifiers

Discussion Paper 070. October 2017. Brussels. PDF. 52pp. Tab. Graph. Bibliogr. Free.

KC-BD-17-070-EN-N (online)
ISBN 978-92-79-64931-8 (online)
ISSN 2443-8022 (online)
doi:10.2765/952494 (online)

JEL classification: E320, E270


European Economy Discussion Papers are written by the staff of the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, or by experts working in association with them, to inform discussion on economic policy and to stimulate debate.

The views expressed in this document are solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the official views of the European Commission.


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