Due to dry conditions in late spring in various regions across Europe, EU cereal production is estimated below average in 2018/2019. This is just one of the findings of the latest short-term outlook report (1.7 MB - PDF) which covers for the first time the tomato and peach and nectarine sectors, from the European Commission published on 5 July 2018.
The report highlights that EU total cereal production for 2018/2019 is expected to be at 299.3 mt, a decrease of 2.5% in comparison with 2017/2018. More specifically, soft and durum wheat productions are forecasted to decline by respectively 3% and 5% compared to last year. As for maize, it is still early to predict its harvest as crops develop later in the summer but the increase in area suggests that 2018/2019 harvest could be close to 64 mt for the third consecutive year.
Nonetheless, EU and global cereal stocks are ample and despite strong global demand, it is premature to anticipate any significant rise of world prices.
EU oilseed production should decrease by 4.6% compared to last year’s record harvest, forecasted at 33.3 mt in 2018.
As for the olive oil sector, weather conditions have been so far favourable. Production is therefore expected to rise from 1.7 mt in 2016/2017 to 2.2 mt in 2017/2018,
Covered for the first time by this report, EU tomato production is expected to decline from 18.5 mt in 2017 to 17.1 mt in 2018. Similarly, EU peach and nectarine production should decrease compared to 2017’s record harvest, down to 3.8 mt in 2018 compared to 4.3 mt in 2017.
In continuity with last year and the end of the sugar quotas, EU sugar production continues to increase expected to reach 2.6 mt in 2018/2019, from 2.2 mt in 2017/2018.
For the dairy sector, due to unfavourable weather conditions the increase of EU milk production was tempered. It is expected to rise from 165.6 mt in 2017 and 167.2 mt in 2018.
In general, the EU meat sector will face higher availability with production expected to rise from 47.1 mt in 2017 to 47.7 mt in 2018, leading to a small rise in consumption. Beef production sustains a small increase. As for pigmeat, supply is growing while exports struggle to follow, resulting in keeping prices down. For poultry, imports are down as Brazilian supply falls, sustaining rising prices as EU production increases.
The full report, with in-depth analysis by market, is available here.
5 July 2018