Boosted by the end of sugar quotas in 2017, EU sugar production is estimated to grow significantly for 2017/18. This is just one of the findings of the latest short-term outlook report (2.4 MB - PDF) from the European Commission published on 5 April 2018.
The report highlights the recovery of EU cereal production, increasing from 297mt in 2016 to 307mt in 2017. Additionally global and EU prices are consolidating with a continuous increase of demand for feed and industrial uses. The cold winter did not significantly damage crops and so far, despite a slight decline in area, a stable harvest is expected for 2018/19.
EU oilseed volumes are expected to increase to 35mt in 2017/18 (up 11% above the five-year average), led by rapeseed production which reached 21.8mt in 2017/18 (a 9% increase compared to 2016/17).
For its first year without quotas, EU sugar production is estimated at 21mt for 2017/18, 23% above the average of previous years. EU production is expected to stabilise for 2018/19 despite falling sugar prices. Additional production is mainly going towards exports, leading to the emergence of new destinations.
For the dairy sector, a growth in milk production is expected, increasing from 165.4mt in 2017 to 167.4mt in 2018. Weather conditions might affect strongly production development though. Sustained demand for dairy products is expected, but it might not be enough to keep market balance.
As far as the meat sector is concerned, EU beef production is expected to decrease from 8.11mt in 2017 to 8.05mt in 2018. Exports, after a sustained increase in the last few years, may stabilise at record high level. Sheep meat production and exports are also expected to stabilise in 2018. An increasing breeding herd should drive up pigmeat production. In 2018, the poultry sector is expected to recover from the bird flu which affected both production and trade in 2017.
The full report, with in-depth analysis by market, is available here.
5 April 2018