EU wine production should stabilise over 2018-2030, while exports should continue growing, mainly due to sparkling wines and geographical indications. This among the projections from the European Union agricultural outlook for 2018-2030 report (9.1 MB - PDF) published on 6 December 2018 by the European Commission.
The EU olive oil sector is expected to grow over the outlook period. Dominated by four main producing countries: Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece, EU olive oil production currently represents two thirds of world production. In 2018/19, it is expected to reach 2.3 million t and will increase by 1.3% per year over the outlook period. Global demand for EU olive oil will also be growing, especially in Asian markets. In parallel, the processing capacity will grow, leading to a further expansion of EU exports, up 3.3% per year during 2018 – 2030.
EU consumption and net export development (1,000 t)
Source: European Commission
As for the wine sector, total EU production and European use are expected to stabilise. Over the outlook period, some slight reduction in human consumption is anticipated from 26 litres per capita on average in 2018/2019 to 25.3 litres in 2030. Production should reach 168 million hl in 2018 and should stabilise at 165 million hl in 2030. As exports, the EU should maintain steady export growth, driven mainly by geographical indications and sparkling wines.
For the fruit and vegetables sector, only selected products are covered by the report: apples, peaches and nectarines, and tomatoes.
EU apple production, from 12.7 million t in 2018/2019 to 12.4 million t in 2030, should stabilise over the outlook period due to a reduction in production area combined with increasing yields in the EU. EU consumption of fresh apples should also be rather stable throughout, while processed ones should decline slightly.
EU trade of fresh and processed apples (million t)
Source: European Commission
Peaches and nectarines will also face a reduction in production area in the EU, leading to a slight decline in production (from 4.1 million t in 2018 to 4 million t in 2030). Consumption will also decrease mainly due to competition from other summer fruits.
Finally, fresh tomato production is expected to remain relatively stable, decreasing by 0.3% per year from now until 2030, despite increasing yields driven by longer seasons. Thanks to greater product segmentation, the value of production should increase throughout the outlook period. EU consumption should decline for fresh tomatoes, as processed ones will grow marginally. This will be mainly driven by higher demand for products that evoke a Mediterranean diet.
Further information and data can be found in the EU agricultural report for 2018-30, as well as predictions for other EU agricultural markets such as meat and dairy or cereals. The prospect for this and other markets to 2030 is also discussed during the EU agricultural outlook conference in Brussels on 7 December 2018.
7 December 2018