Overview

The EU agricultural outlook, published once a year, presents the outlook for major EU agricultural markets and for agricultural income until 2030. It is based on a set of assumptions regarding macroeconomic conditions, the agricultural and trade policy environment, weather conditions and international market developments.

These assumptions imply relatively smooth market developments while in reality markets tend to be much more volatile. Therefore, the outlook is not a forecast. More precisely, the projections correspond to the average trend agricultural markets are expected to follow in a given macroeconomic environment were policies to remain unchanged.

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About the report

This report provides a medium-term outlook for major EU agricultural markets and agricultural income to 2030. It is based on a set of coherent macroeconomic assumptions deemed most plausible at the time of the analysis, including the continuation of current agricultural and trade policies. The analysis relies on information available at the end of September 2019 for agricultural production and on an agro-economic model used by the European Commission.

The analysis of a selected set of market uncertainties accompanies this report in order to quantify the potential for variation in the results. Possible variations stem in particular from fluctuations in the macroeconomic environment and in yields of the main crops and milk. Specific scenarios are also presented for plant-based protein intake, GM-free dairy farming, and the African swine fever outbreak in China.

As part of the preparatory process, an external review of the baseline and the scenarios around market uncertainties were conducted at an outlook workshop organised in Brussels on 23-24 October 2019. Valuable input was collected from high-level policy makers, European and international modelling and market experts, private companies and other stakeholders, and from international organisations such as the OECD and the FAO.

This European Commission publication is a joint effort between the Department for Agriculture and Rural Development and the Joint Research Centre. Responsibility for the content rests with the Department for Agriculture and Rural Development. While every effort is made to provide a robust agricultural market and income outlook, strong uncertainties remain — hence the importance given to analysing them.

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