Real GDP growth rose again in 2017, driven by a boom in private consumption boosted by expansionary fiscal policy. Growth is forecast to decelerate in 2018 but will remain robust. The labour market is expected to remain tight over the forecast horizon. Inflation picked up in late 2017 and is set to rise further in 2018 before tempering somewhat in 2019. The budget deficit is projected to increase significantly, mostly due to public sector wage increases.

Indicators 2016 2017 2018 2019
GDP growth (%, yoy) 4,8 6,9 4,5 3,9
Inflation (%, yoy) -1,1 1,1 4,2 3,4
Unemployment (%) 5,9 4,9 4,5 4,4
Public budget balance (% of GDP) -3,0 -2,9 -3,4 -3,8
Gross public debt (% of GDP) 37,4 35,0 35,3 36,4
Current account balance (% of GDP) -2,1 -3,5 -3,6 -3,9

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