Following the acceleration in output growth in 2017, the Italian economy is expected to continue to grow at the same pace of 1.5% this year, largely supported by domestic demand. As support from tailwinds is expected to wane and the output gap closes, GDP growth is set to moderate to 1.2% in 2019. The general government deficit is projected to decrease in 2018 to 1.7% of GDP assuming no further policy changes, while the debt-to-GDP ratio is set to slightly decline below 130% by 2019 on the back of stronger nominal GDP growth.

Indicators 2016 2017 2018 2019
GDP growth (%, yoy) 0,9 1,5 1,5 1,2
Inflation (%, yoy) -0,1 1,3 1,2 1,4
Unemployment (%) 11,7 11,2 10,8 10,6
Public budget balance (% of GDP) -2,5 -2,3 -1,7 -1,7
Gross public debt (% of GDP) 132,0 131,8 130,7 129,7
Current account balance (% of GDP) 2,5 2,8 2,6 2,6

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