Overview - Conference-on-Seasonality-2006


Conference on Seasonality, Seasonal Adjustment and Their Implications for Short-Term Analysis and Forecasting: Information

Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities, organises a ‘‘Conference on Seasonality, Seasonal Adjustment and Their Implications for Short-Term Analysis and Forecasting''. The Conference will be held in Luxembourg, 10-12 May 2006.

Infra-annual macro-economic statistics are a key tool for economic policy-making, business cycle analysis and modelling, and forecasting. However, short-term statistics are often characterised by seasonal fluctuations which can mask relevant short and long-term movements, and with it a clear understanding of economic phenomena. Consequently, many statistics are subject to seasonal adjustment, namely removal of the seasonal component, in order to obtain a better knowledge of cyclical fluctuations and long-term trends.

Statistical agencies around the globe are regularly engaged in seasonal adjustment and large amounts of resources are dedicated to filtering raw data. Indeed, seasonal adjustment is a subject of perpetual debate in many respects, with many seasonal adjustment methods and tools still being developed. The debate is continuously evolving, with new directions and areas of frontier work that are still under study.
We hope the Conference will provide a forum for the presentation and exchange of theoretical results and practical applications on seasonality, seasonal adjustment, and their links with business cycle analyses and forecasting. Furthermore, we hope it will give an opportunity to create an integrated view in the area, promoting exchanges amongst researchers and official statisticians working at the frontier of several different aspects of these important disciplines.

The principle objectives of the Conference will be to:

  • discuss the most recent developments in theoretical and applied seasonal adjustment;
  • analyse the interactions between seasonal fluctuations and other key components of short-term statistics, in particular business cycle fluctuations, in order to isolate the effects that seasonal adjustment has on these links and on key features of the unfiltered series;
  • encourage analyses on the effects seasonal fluctuations and seasonal adjustment might have in forecasting short-term dynamics, and in general how seasonal adjustment and forecasting interact with each other;
  • identify possible applications of sophisticated tools by private and public institutions involved in seasonal adjustment, seasonal modelling and forecasting;
  • bring together statisticians, econometricians and economists in view of exploiting synergies to improve the understanding of seasonal adjustment and its applications in official statistics;
  • •promote the interaction between academics, researchers and official institutions in the area of seasonal adjustment, short-term analysis, modelling and forecasting.