Archive:Employed people and job starters by economic activity and occupation
Data extracted in January 2021
Planned article update: April 2021
Highlights
Recent job starters and recent job leavers, EU-27, Q1 2008 - Q3 2020 (in million persons, age group 20-64, seasonally adjusted data)
Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 in Europe, many companies have been struggling with balancing the need to protect their clients and employees from infection and to find a way to continue to produce goods and provide services to preserve their existence. Many were not able to maintain the same levels of production as before the COVID crisis. To mitigate the social impact of the pandemic, the European Union (EU) and national governments introduced a variety of measures, including fiscal support or loans, to protect people from job loss in the situation of a less productive economy. Although protective measures to preserve the level of employment have been taken, a more cautious policy of enterprises in regards to hiring new employees could be expected. Also, there may be more reluctance to start new businesses, which could have also led to more employed people.
The aim of this article is to shed light on this topic and to report about developments for recent job starters. Information on recent job leavers is also presented to complement the picture of the labour market dynamics. The two groups are defined in the following way:
- Recent job leavers are people who reported that they left their job in the last 3 months before the interview;
- Recent job starters are people who reported that they started their employment in the last 3 months before the interview.
This article is based on quarterly results from the European Union Labour Force Survey (EU-LFS). Both the European and country approaches are presented in this article, which show the effect of the COVID-19 crisis at the global EU level and at the national level in the individual Member States, as well as in three EFTA countries (Iceland, Norway and Switzerland), the United Kingdom and four candidate countries (Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Turkey).
This article is part of the online publication Labour market in the light of the COVID 19 pandemic - quarterly statistics along with the articles Employment, Absences from work and Hours of work.
Full article
Recent job starters outnumbered again recent job leavers in the third quarter of 2020
Figure 1 presents the development in the number of recent job starters and recent job leavers over the period 2006-2020 in the EU. The levels of the two groups got closer together and moved further apart from each other over time. For example, in the first quarter of 2009, a period that is associated with the financial recession from the late 2000s, the numbers of recent starters and leavers were very close to each other. In this quarter, 6.8 million people were newly employed, whereas 5.2 million had recently left their jobs.
However, despite the proximity of these two groups over the years, the number of recent job leavers has never exceeded the number of recent job starters, at least up to the second quarter of 2020 (Q2 2020). During this quarter, recent job leavers outnumbered recent job starters by 1.4 million, reaching a record high for the whole time series of 6.3 million. In contrast, the number of recent job starters in the same quarter reached a historical low of 4.8 million.
The situation during the third quarter of 2020 (Q3 2020) changed, the number of recent job starters was again above that of recent job leavers. In detail, during this quarter there were 6.6 million recent job starters against 3.9 million recent job leavers.
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Source: Eurostat (lfsi_sta_q), (lfsi_lea_q)
When comparing the results for Q3 2020 with the long-term trend, it can be noticed that the number of recent job leavers in Q3 2020 reached an all-time low level since the start of the time series (i.e. since the first quarter of 2006). However, the number of recent job starters in Q3 2020, although substantially higher than in Q2 2020, was still below its values recorded between Q4 2013 and Q1 2020; it was very similar to the number recorded during the financial recession from the late 2000s.
Focus on recent job starters
At EU level, between the first quarter of 2019 (Q1 2019) and the first quarter of 2020 (Q1 2020), the number of recent job starters decreased by -3.4 %. The situation among the EU Member States was highly diverse (see Figure 2). However, the majority of them (19 out of 26 with available data) also experienced a decrease in the number of newly employed between Q1 2019 and Q1 2020. The decrease was most notable in Croatia (-30.9 %), Bulgaria (-32.4 %) and Greece (-36.5 %). In contrast, the number of recent job starters increased between Q1 2019 and Q1 2020 in the other seven EU countries, with an increase ranging from +1.8 % in Lithuania to +42.5 % in Slovenia.
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Source: Eurostat (lfsi_sta_q)
The decrease in the number of recent job starters between the second quarter of 2019 (Q2 2019) and the second quarter of 2020 (Q2 2020) was ten times larger than the decrease between Q1 2019 and Q1 2020 in the EU-27. The number of people who had started a job recently at EU level in Q2 2020 was one third less (-34.6 %) than in Q2 2019. Moreover, all Member States in Q2 2020 recorded a decline in the number of recent job starters in comparison with Q2 2019. The drop between Q2 2019 and Q2 2020 even exceeded -50 % in Cyprus (-53.1 %), Latvia (-54.5 %), Croatia (-60.2 %, low reliability), Malta (-61.6 %, low reliability) and Greece (-61.8 %). In contrast, Denmark (-7.6 %), Luxembourg (-3.6 %) and Hungary (-0.8 %) corresponded to a decrease less than -10 %.
Looking at EU level, the change in the number of newly employed people between the third quarter 2019 (Q3 2019) and the third quarter of 2020 (Q3 2020) was smaller than the change between the second quarters of 2019 and 2020. However, the change was still negative and equal to -11.0 %. Focusing on the national level, between Q3 2019 and Q3 2020, 20 Member States (out of 26 with available data) also registered a fall in the number of newly employed people, with the most pronounced drops in Slovenia (-22.4 %), Ireland (-23.1 %), Portugal (-32.3 %) and Slovakia (-33.8 %). In contrast, the number of recent job starters increased between Q3 2019 and Q3 2020 in the remaining six EU countries, where the highest growths were found in Hungary (+26.1 %), Bulgaria (+27.5 %) and Greece (+73.3 %). Note that Greece, which showed the largest decrease in the number of recent job starters from Q1 2019 to Q1 2020 and from Q2 2019 to Q2 2020, experienced the largest increase from Q3 2019 to Q3 2020.
The development between Q3 2019 and Q3 2020 for men and women among the population of recent job starters is presented in Figure 3. At EU level, both genders experienced a decrease in terms of percentage change between those two quarters. However, the decrease for men was more pronounced than the decrease for women: -12.8 % for men compared with -9.1 % for women.
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Source: Eurostat (lfsi_sta_q)
Only seven EU countries (out of 26 with available data) saw their number of male recent job starters increasing between Q3 2019 and Q3 2020. The increases ranged from +58.4 % in Greece to +1.0 % in Austria. In the remaining 19 EU countries, the number of men who had started a job recently before the interview decreased when comparing Q3 2020 with Q3 2019. The slowest declines were reported by Czechia (-0.2 %), Cyprus (-1.1 %) and Denmark (-1.9 %), whereas the sharpest ones by Portugal (-38.1 %), Slovakia (-31.2 %), Ireland (-22.7 %) and Slovenia (-22.3 %).
The number of women who were recent job starters increased between Q3 2019 and Q3 2020 in only five Member States. The increase was the most significant in Greece (+90.6 %), where there were almost twice as many women who had started a job recently in Q3 2020 than in Q3 2019. In contrast, the number of newly employed women in Poland increased the least, with +3.7 %. Note that in Greece the increase for female recent job starters was more substantial than for the male ones. This was also the case in Bulgaria. It is also worth noting that those two countries recorded the largest increases in the total number of newly employed people between Q3 2019 and Q3 2020. However, in the vast majority of EU countries (the remaining 21 countries), the number of newly employed women decreased between Q3 2019 and Q3 2020. The sharpest drops were recorded in Slovakia (-36.0 %), Croatia (-30.2 %, low reliability), Portugal (-26.5 %) and Luxembourg (-25.9 %), and the slowest in Austria (-0.1 %), Lithuania (-3.3 %) and Cyprus (-4.1 %).
Focus on recent job leavers
Between Q1 2019 and Q1 2020, the number of recent job leavers increased by +15.0 % at EU level. The majority of Member States (18 out of 25 with available data) also experienced an increase in the population of recent ex-workers. This increase was most significant in Slovenia and Romania, where the number of people who had left their jobs recently in Q1 2020 almost doubled and tripled respectively the corresponding number in Q1 2019. By contrast, increases of less than 10 %, were reported by Czechia (+8.7 %), Denmark (+4.1 %) and Finland (+1.6 %). In the remaining seven EU countries, the number of recent job leavers decreased between Q1 2019 and Q1 2020, with the slowest drop in Sweden (-0.1 %), and the sharpest one in the Netherlands (-10.8 %).
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Source: Eurostat (lfsi_sta_q)
When Q2 2020 is compared with Q2 2019, the quarterly change takes much more significant dimensions than if Q1 2020 and Q1 2019 are set side by side. This is observed at EU level, where the number of recent job leavers in Q2 2020 was 71.9 % higher than in Q2 2019. Only one Member State experienced a drop, namely Croatia (-1.2 %, low reliability). Also, only Cyprus (+5.6 %) had an increase in the number of recent job leavers of less than +20 %. In contrast, people who had left their jobs recently tripled between Q2 2019 and Q2 2020 in Hungary and Slovakia, and quadrupled in Romania and Ireland. However, the largest increase could be found in Bulgaria, with six times more recent job leavers in Q2 2020 than in Q2 2019.
The quarterly change in the number of recent job leavers between Q3 2019 and Q3 2020 at EU level (-15.0 %) was the same size as the quarterly change between Q1 2019 and Q1 2020 (+15.0 %), but nevertheless in a different direction. The majority of Member States (18 EU countries) had a reduction in the population of new ex-workers in Q3 2020 compared with Q3 2019. The decrease was the most notable in Ireland (-34.2 %), followed by Estonia (-31.3 %) and Bulgaria (-25.8 %). Please note that Ireland and Bulgaria both had a very large percentage increase in recent job leavers between Q2 2019 and Q2 2020. Lithuania (-1.2 %) had the smallest decrease in the population of recent job leavers between Q3 2019 and Q3 2020, followed by Croatia (-5.6 %) and Cyprus (-5.7 %). On the contrary, the number of recent job leavers rose in the remaining seven EU countries, with increases ranging from +9.9 % in Denmark to +136.5 % in Slovakia. This makes Slovakia the Member State with the largest increase in the number of recent job leavers, and also with the largest decrease in the number of recent job starters (as seen in the previous section), between Q3 2019 and Q3 2020.
The last figure of this article displays the change between Q3 2019 and Q3 2020 in the number of men and women who had left their job recently (see Figure 5). At EU level, the development by gender showed similarities between the sexes: the number of male recent job leavers decreased by -14.7 %, whereas the number of female recent job leavers decreased by -15.2 %.
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Source: Eurostat (lfsi_sta_q)
Behind this global evolution at EU level, large variations exist among Member States. The development between Q3 2019 and Q3 2020 differs the most by gender in Slovakia, which also recorded the highest increase in the number of men and women who had left their job recently. In this country, men who had left their job recently in Q3 2020 were three times more than in Q3 2019, while women were two times more (95 percentage points difference between the evolution of men and women). Following Slovakia, Latvia and Cyprus stood as the EU countries with the next widest gaps between genders. The evolution in the latter two countries had a different direction for women than for men. In Latvia, the number of male recent job leavers increased by +35.8 %, while the number of female recent job leavers decreased by -44.1 %. In Cyprus, the number of men increased by +44.0 %, and the number of women decreased by -21.3 %.
Finally, the number of men among recent job leavers decreased in 12 EU countries (out of 24 with available data), while the corresponding number of women decreased in 17 EU countries. The decrease for men ranged from -36.6 % in Ireland to -6.3 % in Sweden, whereas the decrease for women ranged from -44.1 % in Latvia to -0.8 % in Finland.
Source data for tables and graphs
Data sources
All figures in this article are based on quarterly results from the European Union Labour Force Survey (EU-LFS).
Source: The European Union Labour Force Survey (EU-LFS) is the largest European household sample survey providing mostly quarterly and annual results on labour participation of people aged 15 and over as well as on persons outside the labour force. It covers residents in private households. Conscripts in military or community service are not included in the results. The EU-LFS is based on the same target populations and uses the same definitions in all countries, which means that the results are comparable between countries.
European aggregates: EU refers to the sum of the EU-27 Member States. If data is unavailable for a country, the calculation of the corresponding aggregates is computed with estimates. Such cases are indicated.
Country note: In Germany, from the first quarter of 2020 onwards, the Labour Force Survey (LFS) is part of a new system of integrated household surveys. Unfortunately, technical issues and the COVID-19 crisis has had a large impact on data collection processes, resulting in low response rates and a biased sample. For this reason, additional data from other integrated household surveys has been used in addition to the LFS subsample, to estimate a restricted set of indicators for the first three quarters of 2020, for the production of LFS Main Indicators. These estimates have been used for the publication of German results, but also in the calculation of EU and EA aggregates. By contrast, EU and EA aggregates published in the Detailed quarterly results (showing more and different breakdowns than the LFS Main Indicators) have been computed using only available data from the LFS subsample. As a consequence, small differences in the EU and EA aggregates in tables from both collections may be observed. For more information, see here.
For more information on recent job starters and leavers, please consult pages 22, 41-43 and 80-82 from EU Labour Force Survey Explanatory Notes
Also, five different articles on detailed technical and methodological information are available from the overview page of the online publication EU Labour Force Survey.
Context
The COVID-19 health crisis hit Europe in January and February 2020, with the first cases confirmed in Spain, France and Italy. COVID-19 infections have now been diagnosed in all European Union Member States. To fight the pandemic, EU Member States have taken a wide variety of measures. From the second week of March, most countries closed retail shops apart from supermarkets, pharmacies and banks. Bars, restaurants and hotels have also been closed. In Italy and Spain, non-essential production was stopped and several countries imposed regional or even national lock-down measures which further stifled the economic activities in many areas. In addition, schools were closed, public events were cancelled and private gatherings (with numbers of persons varying from 2 to 50) were banned in most Member States.
The large majority of the prevention measures were taken during mid-March 2020 and most of the measures and restrictions were kept for the whole period of April and May 2020. The first quarter of 2020 is consequently the first quarter in which the labour market across the EU has been affected by COVID-19 measures taken by the Member States.
Employment and unemployment as defined by the ILO concept are, in this particular situation, not sufficient to describe the developments taking place in the labour market. In this first phase of the crisis, active measures to contain employment losses led to absences from work rather than dismissals, and individuals could not search for work or were not available due to the containment measures, thus not counting as unemployed.
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