Statistics Explained

European Neighbourhood Policy - South - population statistics


Data extracted in March 2023.

Planned article update: April 2024.

Highlights

Among European Neighbourhood Policy-South countries, (latest available data) the share of people aged 65 years and older within the total population ranged from 2.7 % in Libya (2020 data) to 12.1 % in Israel (2021 data), compared with 21.1 % in the EU (2021 provisional estimate).

In 2021, Tunisia had the lowest crude birth rate among the European Neighbourhood Policy-South countries, at 13.6 % live births per 1 000 inhabitants, which was still above the EU rate of 9.1 (provisional estimate).

Among European Neighbourhood Policy-South countries in 2021, only Israel recorded higher life expectancy for both men and women than in the EU. Lowest life expectancy at birth was recorded for men in Tunisia, 70.8 years; and for women in Egypt (2019 data) and Jordan, 5.1 years.

[[File:ENPS23_Infant mortality rate 2011 and 2021.xlsx]]

Infant mortality rate, 2011 and 2021

This article is part of an online publication and presents information relating to a range of demographic statistics for 9 of the 10 countries that form the European Neighbourhood Policy-South (ENP-South) region — Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestine [1] and Tunisia; no recent data are available for Syria. Aside from basic data on population levels, the article also provides information for these countries and the European Union (EU) on the crude birth rate, crude death rate, fertility rate, infant mortality rate and life expectancy.

Full article

Population and age structure

The recommended definition of total population is the “usual resident population”, which represents the number of inhabitants of a given area. Eurostat uses the reference date of 1 January of the year in question. In some cases, the 31 December of the previous year is used.

The total population of the nine ENP-South countries for which recent data are available was estimated to be 231.9 million inhabitants in 2022 (or the latest year for which data is available), which was equivalent to 51.9 % of the total population of the EU (see Figure 1). Egypt was by far the most populous of the ENP-South countries with 101.5 million inhabitants in 2021 (latest available data). The population in Egypt was more than twice the number in any of the other ENP-South countries, with the next highest levels recorded in 2022 in Algeria, at 44.6 million inhabitants, and in Morocco, 36.7 million inhabitants. In Tunisia, the population was 11.8 million (2022 data) and Jordan 11.1 million (2021 data). The other ENP-South countries registered less than 10 million inhabitants: Israel had 9.3 million in 2021; Libya had 6.9 million in 2020; Palestine had 5.3 million in 2022; and Lebanon had an estimated 4.8 million in 2018. As at 1 January 2022, there were 446.7 million residents in the EU (provisional estimate).

a horizontal bar chart showing the population as of 1st January in 2022. In the EU and the ENP-South region countries, Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestine and Tunisia. The bars show the population per millions of inhabitants for each of the countries and the EU.
Figure 1: Population as of 1st January, 2022
(million inhabitants)
Source: Eurostat (demo_pjan) and (enps_demo_pjangr)

All ENP-South countries for which recent data are available have a relatively young population structure, as illustrated in Figure 2. In 2022, Palestine had the highest share of young population, with 37.8 % of the total population under 15 years of age. The second highest country was Jordan with 34.3 %, followed by Egypt with 34.2 % (2021 data). Libya’s young people made up 31.1 % of its population in 2020 (more recent data not available). Algeria had 30.6 % (2021 data) of its total population under the age of 15. Israel had 28.0 % (2021 data), Morocco, 25.3 % and Tunisia 25.0 %. Lebanon’s estimates for 2018 (more recent data not available) showed that the share of its total population under 15 years old was 24.1 %. This data excludes Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon. The share of the young population in the EU was significantly lower than in any of the ENP-South countries, at 15.0 % in 2022 (provisional estimate).

The share of the working age population, defined as people aged 15-64 years, ranged in 2022 between 58.9 % in Palestine and 69.4 % in Tunisia. Israel, with 59.8 % (2021 data) of its total population in the working age population, had the second lowest rate of the ENP-South countries. The working age population made up 61.9 % (2021 data) of the total population in Egypt and 62.0 % in Jordan. In Algeria, the 15-64 year old population accounted for 62.5 % (2021 data) of its total population. Lebanon’s data for 2018 (more recent data not available) show that 65.0 % of the population was between 15 and 64 years old. This data excludes Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon. In Libya, the share in 2020 (more recent data not available) was 65.5 %. In the EU, working age people accounted for 63.9 % of the total population in 2022 (provisional estimate).

In the ENP-South countries in 2022 (or latest available data), people 65 years and over accounted for shares of the total population of between 12.1 % in Israel (2021 data) and 2.7 % in Libya (2020 data). Lebanon had the next highest share of older population, with 11.0 % (2018 data). Morocco’s older population accounted for 7.9 % (2022 data) of its total population. Algeria's population 65 years and older accounted for a 6.9 % share (2021 data), while in Tunisia, people 65 years and older made up 5.7 % of its total population in 2022. People aged 65 years old and over in Egypt in 2021 represented 3.9 % of its total population. In Jordan, the share was 3.7 %; and in Palestine, 3.4 % in 2022. The EU’s population was significantly older than those of the ENP-South countries, with 18.0 % in 2012 and 21.1 % in 2022 of its population being 65 years old or older (provisional estimates).

a vertical stacked bar chart showing population by age class for the years 2012 and 2022 as a percentage of total population. In the EU and the ENP-South region countries, Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestine and Tunisia. The bars show ages less than 15 years, 15 to 64 years and 65 years and over.
Figure 2: Population by age class, 2012 and 2022
(% of total population)
Source: Eurostat (demo_pjangroup) and (enps_demo_pjangr)

The highest growth between 2012 and 2022 (or latest available data) of the shares of people under 15 years old in the total population occurred in Egypt (data 2012 - 2021), with an increase of 3.1 percentage points (pp), while the largest decline was found in Palestine, of -3.1 pp. The second largest increase occurred in Algeria (2012 - 2021), at 2.9 pp. Lebanon’s share of the young population increased by 2.6 pp between 2012 and 2018, while Tunisia’s share increased by 1.5 pp from 2012 to 2022. Israel’s under 15 year old population share slightly declined between 2012 and 2021 by -0.1 pp, while Morocco’s young population share decreased by -1.7 pp over 2012-2022. For Jordan and Libya, there were no change in the population shares. The EU’s share of under 15 year olds in the population decreased between 2012 and 2022 (provisional estimate), by -0.4 pp.

Among the ENP-South countries, only Palestine increased its working age population share over 2012-2022, by 2.9 pp. For Jordan and Libya, there were no change in the population shares. All the other ENP-South countries experienced a decline of their working age population share between 2012 and 2022 (or year of latest available data), with Algeria reporting the largest decline, by -4.3 pp between 2012 and 2021 (provisional). Egypt had a decline of -2.6 pp between 2012 and 2021. Lebanon showed a decline of -2.4 pp between 2012 and 2018, while the working age share in Israel declined by -1.9 pp between 2012 and 2021. The working age share decline was marginal in Morocco at -0.2 pp and in Tunisia at -0.1 pp over 2012-2022. In the EU there was a decline of the working age population share between 2012 and 2022 (provisional estimate) of -2.7 pp.

Between 2012 and 2022, the share of the older population increased the most in Israel, by 2.0 pp. Morocco reported an increase of 1.9 pp, while Algeria’s older population share increased by 1.4 pp (2012-2021). From 2012 to 2022, Palestine’s share of the population aged 65 years and older increased marginally by 0.2 pp. Declines in the older population shares were experienced in Lebanon, by -0.2 pp between 2012 and 2018, in Egypt, by -0.5 pp between 2012 and 2021 and in Tunisia, by -1.4 pp from 2012 to 2022. For Jordan and Libya, there were no change in the population shares. Finally, the EU showed an increase of the proportion of its older population by 3.1 pp between 2012 and 2022 (provisional estimates).

Birth and death rates

The crude rate of natural increase is calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate. A positive result implies that the natural rate of population change is positive and so the population increases, excluding the effect of migrant flows. The data are illustrated in Figure 3.

a vertical double bar chart showing crude birth and death rates in 2012 and 2022 per thousand inhabitants. In the EU and the ENP-South region countries, Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestine and Tunisia. The bars show crude birth rate and crude death rate.
Figure 3: Crude birth and death rates, 2012 and 2022
(per thousand inhabitants)
Source: Eurostat (demo_gind) and (enps_demo_gind)

All the ENP-South countries for which data is available reported crude birth rates that substantially exceeded crude death rates. In Palestine, natural population growth was 25.5 per thousand inhabitants in 2022. A decade earlier, it was 28.8 per thousand inhabitants. This made Palestine the ENP-South member with the highest natural population growth rate. Algeria saw a natural population growth of 19.3 per thousand inhabitants in 2019 (more recent data not available). In 2012, the corresponding figure was 21.6. In Libya, natural population growth was 16.1 per thousand inhabitants in 2019 (more recent data not available) and 15.7 in 2012. Israel had a natural population growth of 14.3 per thousand inhabitants in 2021 (no 2022 data available) and 16.3 per thousand in 2012. In Egypt, natural population growth was 14.1 per thousand inhabitants in 2021 (no 2022 data available) and 25.5 in 2012. In Jordan, natural population growth was at 12.1 per thousand inhabitants in 2022 and 21.9 in 2012. Natural population growth in Morocco was at 10.9 per thousand inhabitants in 2022 and an estimated 13.2 per thousand inhabitants a decade earlier. Finally, the lowest natural population growth of the ENP-South countries was found in Tunisia, where natural population growth was 4.5 per thousand inhabitants in 2021 (no 2022 data available) and 14.3 per thousand inhabitants in 2012. There is no data available for Lebanon.

In contrast, the EU reported crude death rates that were higher than crude birth rates in 2021. This resulted therefore in a natural population decrease of -2.8 per thousand inhabitants in 2021, while in 2012 the natural rate of population change had been slightly negative, at -0.1 per thousand inhabitants.

The natural rate of population growth has slowed in all ENP-South countries in the period to 2021, or the most recent year for which data is available. The greatest differences over the period 2012-2022 occurred in Egypt, where the recorded slowdown in the rate of natural population growth was 11.4 per thousand inhabitants; in Jordan and Tunisia, where the difference was 9.8 per thousand inhabitants.

Fertility rate

The total fertility rate is defined as the mean number of children who would be born to a woman during her lifetime, if she were to spend her childbearing years conforming to the age-specific fertility rates that have been measured in a given year. An average of around 2.1 children per woman is thought to be required to maintain a constant population level, excluding any consideration of migration. The data are illustrated by Figure 4.

a line chart with nine lines showing the fertility rate for 2012 to 2022 shown as the average number of children per woman. The lines show the EU and the countries in the ENP-South region, Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestine and Tunisia.
Figure 4: Fertility rate, 2012-2022
(average number of children per woman)
Source: Eurostat (demo_gind)

Among the ENP-South countries for which data is available, Tunisia’s fertility rate was the lowest at 1.8 children per woman in 2021 (no 2022 data available), having been 2.4 in 2012. Morocco’s fertility rate was 2.1 in 2022; in 2012, it was similar at 2.2. In Libya, the fertility rate was 2.3 children per woman in 2019 (more recent data not available), having been 2.5 in 2012. The fertility rate of women in Jordan declined to 2.7 in 2020-2022 from 3.8 children per woman in 2012. Fertility in Israel was almost constant, being 2.9 in 2020 (more recent data not available) and 3.0 in 2012. Similarly in Algeria, the rate was 3.0 children per woman in 2021 (no 2022 data available) and 3.1 in 2012. Egypt’s most recent data showed a fertility rate of 3.5 children per woman in 2014. Palestine’s available data showed a fertility rate of 3.8 children per woman in 2020 (more recent data not available) and one of 4.1 in 2014 (no 2012 data available). There is no data available for Lebanon.

While the fertility rate levels in the ENP-South countries, except Tunisia in 2021, were at or above the replacement level, the EU’s rate was both below it and lower than the ENP-South countries. In both 2012 and 2021 (no 2022 data available), the fertility rate in the EU was 1.5 children per woman.

Life expectancy

Life expectancy at a certain age is the mean additional number of years that a person of that age can expect to live, if subjected throughout the rest of his or her life to the current mortality conditions. Life expectancy at birth rose rapidly during the last century due to a number of factors, including reductions in infant mortality, rising living standards, improved lifestyles and better education, as well as advances in healthcare and medicine. Data for 2011 and 2021, or the most recent year for which data are available, are illustrated in Figure 5 for men and for women in all the ENP-South countries for which data are available,

There was an increase in life expectancy for women and men in most but not all ENP-South countries over the period. The increase was particularly marked in Egypt: male life expectancy increased from 68.6 years in 2011 to 72.7 years in 2019 (more recent data not available) and female from 71.4 to 75.1 years over the same period. In Morocco, male life expectation increased from 74.0 in 2011 to 75.1 years in 2021 and female from 75.8 to 78.5 years. In Palestine, men had life expectancy of 71.0 in 2011 (estimated) and 73.0 in 2021; the corresponding figures for women were 73.9 and 75.3 years. In Israel, male life expectancy increased from an already high 79.9 years to 80.5 years between 2011 and 2021; female life expectancy rose from 83.5 to 84.6 years. These figures are higher than the EU. In Jordan, male life expectancy increased from 71.6 in 2011 to 72.3 years in 2021, while female life expectancy rose from 74.4 to 75.1. In Algeria, male life expectancy declined from 75.6 years in 2011 to 74.5 in 2020 (no 2021 data available), while female life expectancy increased from 77.4 to 78.1 years. Tunisia’s data show declines for both men and women from 2011 to 2021: male life expectancy in 2011 was 72.5 years and in 2021, 70.8 years; female life expectancy was 76.8 years in 2011 and 75.2 years in 2021.

For comparison, in the EU, male life expectancy was 77.0 years in 2011 and an estimated 77.2 years in 2021. Female life expectancy was 83.1 years in 2011 and 82.9 years in 2021. It should be noted that there is a break in series for the EU.

a double vertical bar chart showing life expectancy at birth in 2011 and 2021 In the EU and the countries in the ENP-South region, Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Morocco, Palestine and Tunisia. The bars show the years 2011 and 2021.
Figure 5: Life expectancy at birth, 2011 and 2021
(years)
Source: Eurostat (demo_mlexpec) and (enps_demo_mlexpec)

Life expectancy at birth for women is higher than for men both in all the ENP-South countries for which data are available and the EU. The gender gap was 4.3 years in 2021 in Tunisia; it was the same in 2011. This was the biggest gender gap change recorded among the ENP-South countries. In Israel, there was a 4.1 years gender gap in 2021, up from 3.6 years in 2011. Algeria and Morocco had similar gender gaps, at 3.6 years (2021 data) and 3.4 years (2020 data), respectively; they increased by 1.8 and 1.6 years, respectively, compared to 2011. In Jordan, the gender gap was 2.8 in 2021, as it was in 2011. Egypt and Palestine had similar rates with a gender gap of 2.8 and 2.9 years in 2011, respectively; they decreased in 2021 to 2.4 and 2.3 years, respectively. In comparison, the EU reported a higher gender gap than any of the ENP-South countries, with 6.1 years in 2011 and 5.7 years in 2021. It has to be noted that there is a break in series for the EU.

Infant mortality rates

The infant mortality rates presented in Figure 6 are defined as the number of deaths of children under one year of age per thousand live births.

Infant mortality rates fell in all the ENP-South countries over the period 2011-2021 for which data is available, except in Egypt. In some countries the decline was rapid. In Morocco, data is only available for 2011, when the infant mortality rate was 28.8 per thousand; it was the highest rate amongst the ENP-South countries in 2011. The infant mortality rate in Algeria declined from 23.1 per thousand live births in 2011 to 18.9 in 2020 (no 2021 data available). Jordan’s infant mortality rate declined from 19.0 per thousand live births in 2009 (no 2011 data available) to 17.0 in 2021. Egypt’s infant mortality rate rose from 14.7 per thousand in 2011 to 15.7 per thousand in 2020 (no 2021 data available). In Tunisia, the decline was from 16.4 in 2011 to 13.3 per thousand live births in 2021. In Palestine, infant mortality fell from 18.9 per thousand live births in 2009 (no 2011 data available) to 12.1 in 2020 (no 2021 data available). This was the largest decline among the ENP-South countries. Libya’s infant mortality declined from 10.0 per thousand in 2012 (no 2011 data available) to 8.4 in 2020 (no 2021 data available). In Lebanon, no data is available for 2021 but the infant mortality rate in 2009 (more recent data not available) was 9.0 per thousand live births. A decline in infant mortality rate from already low rates was recorded in Israel, from 3.5 in 2011 to 2.7 per thousand live births in 2021.

The rates for the EU were significantly lower than in most ENP-South countries, with the exception of Israel. EU’s infant mortality rate decreased from 3.8 per thousand live births in 2011 to 3.2 per thousand live births in 2021.

a horizontal bar chart with two bars showing infant mortality rate in 2011 and 2021 per thousand live births. In the EU and the ENP-South region countries, Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestine and Tunisia.
Figure 6: Infant mortality rate, 2011 and 2021
(per thousand live births)
Source: Eurostat (demo_minfind) and (enps_demo_infant)

Data sources

The data for ENP-South countries are supplied by and under the responsibility of the national statistical authorities of each country on a voluntary basis. The data that are presented in this article result from an annual data collection cycle that has been established by Eurostat. No recent data are available from Syria. These statistics are available free-of-charge on Eurostat’s website, together with a range of different indicators covering most socio-economic areas.

Eurostat provides a wide range of demographic data, including statistics on populations at national and regional level, as well as for various demographic events influencing the size, the structure and the specific characteristics of these populations. Eurostat collects data from EU Member States and other countries participating in its demography data collection exercise (including the ENP-South countries) concerning the population as of 1 January each year.

Context

Statistics on population change and its structure are increasingly used to support policymaking and provide an opportunity to monitor demographic behaviour within an economic, social and cultural context.

The EU’s population is ageing as consistently low birth rates and higher life expectancy transform the shape of its age pyramid. As a result, the proportion of people of working age in the EU is shrinking while the relative number of those retired is expanding. This will, in turn, lead to an increased burden on those of working age to provide for the social expenditure required by the ageing population for a range of services.

The European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP), launched in 2003 and developed throughout 2004, supports and fosters stability, security and prosperity in the EU’s neighbourhood. The ENP was revised in 2015. The main principles of the revised policy are a tailored approach to partner countries; flexibility; joint ownership; greater involvement of EU member states and shared responsibility. The ENP aims to deepen engagement with civil society and social partners. It offers partner countries greater access to the EU's market and regulatory framework, standards and internal agencies and programmes.

The Joint Communication on Renewed Partnership with the Southern Neighbourhood – A new Agenda for the Mediterranean, accompanied by an Economic and Investment Plan for the Southern neighbours, of 9 February 2021 further guides cooperation with the ENP-South countries.

The main objective of Euro-Mediterranean cooperation in statistics is to enable the production and dissemination of reliable and comparable data, in line with European and international norms and standards.

Reliable and comparable data are essential for evidence-based decision-making. They are needed to monitor the implementation of the agreements between the EU and the ENP-South countries, the impact of policy interventions and the reaching of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

The EU has been supporting statistical capacity building in the region for a number of years through bilateral and regional capacity-building activities. This takes the form of technical assistance to partner countries’ national statistical authorities through targeted assistance programmes, such as the MEDSTAT programme and activities such as training courses, working groups and workshops, exchange of best practice and the transfer of statistical know-how. Additional information on the policy context of the ENP is provided here.

Notes

  1. This designation shall not be construed as recognition of a State of Palestine and is without prejudice to the individual positions of the Member States on this issue.

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