ESTAT-2000-00790-00-00-EN-TRA-00 (FR)

Compared to the same month one year ago the volume of retail trade¹ in January 2000rose by 2.3% in the euro-zone² and by 3.0% in the EU15, Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities in Luxembourg – estimates today. Compared to December 1999, sales³ rose by 0.3% in the euro-zone and in the EU15.

In order to better satisfy information needs on current consumption trends within the euro-zone and the EU15, Eurostat will publish this new euro-indicator every month. A description of its methodology is attached.

Compared to December 1999, January sales in the food sector increased by 0.3% in the euro-zone and remained unchanged in the EU15. Sales in the "textiles, clothing and footwear" sector fell by 0.8% in the euro-zone and by 0.3% in the EU15. Sales in the "household goods" sector rose by 0.6% in the euro-zone and by 1.3% in the EU15.

Among the different Member States for which data are available for January, sales increased quite significantly in Spain (3.0%). Finland and the United Kingdom also registered significant increases of 1.8% and 1.6% respectively. However, in Germany (-1.9%) sales fell for the third consecutive month.

In January 2000 the year-on-year increase in the volume of retail trade was similar to that of December 1999 both in the euro-zone and in the EU15.

Sales in the "textiles, clothing and footwear" sector fell by 1.7% in the euro-zone and rose slightly in the EU15 (+0.3%). The household goods sector maintained a steady growth rate, although it was less marked in the euro-zone (+2.2%) than in the EU15 (+4.7%).

Apart from Germany, where sales fell by 3.2% compared to January 1999, all other countries for which data are available registered more or less significant increases. Performance was strong in Spain (+8.6%), Sweden (+7.5%), Finland (+7.4%) and the United Kingdom (+6.3%). The growth rate was more moderate in the Netherlands (+3.9%) and relatively low in Italy (+1.1%).

the EU15 and the Member States
% change compared with the same month of the previous year¹

²Euro-zone: Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal and Spain.

Methodology of Retail Sales Index

The Retail Sales Index is a business cycle indicator which shows the monthly activity of the retail sector in volume. It is a short-term indicator for final domestic demand and it accounts for 40% of total private consumption. This index is often interpreted as a consumer confidence indicator.

The retail sector covers retail trade, repair of personal and household goods, and various aggregations thereof, but excludes the sale and repair of motor vehicles (Division 52 of NACE rev.1)[1].

The legal basis for the deflated retail sales index is the Council Regulation No 1165/98 of 19^th of May 1998 concerning short-term statistics[2], which is currently in the process of implementation[3].

Definition and coverage

The Retail Sales index is one of the turnover indices required by the Short-term Statistics (STS) Regulation. It is deflated in order to eliminate the impact of inflation and shows the evolution of the turnover at constant 1995 prices.

Turnover[4] comprises the total of goods and services invoiced to third parties by the observation unit during a reference period. In detail, the components of turnover are:

· sales of manufactured products,

· invoiced services provided,

· sales of by-products,

· invoiced charges for packaging and transport,

· invoiced mounting, installations and repairs,

· invoiced instalments (stage payments)

· commissions.

The following components are excluded:

· leases and rentals,

· leases for own production units and machines if used by third parties,

· leases of company-owned dwellings,

· receipts for license-fees,

· receipts from staff facilities (for example, from a factory canteen),

· the supply of products and services within the observation unit,

· sales of own land and fixed assets,

· sales of leases for own properties,

· sales of shares and interests,

· interest receipts and dividends,

· other extraordinary income.

Turnover in retail trade includes value added tax (VAT). It also includes all other charges, for example, expenses to transport and packaging, passed on to the customer, even if they are charged separately on the invoice.

Price reductions, rebates and discounts and allowances for returned goods or packaging are deducted, but not cash discounts. Price reductions, rebates and bonuses conceded later to clients, for example at the end of the year, are not taken into account.

Volume of sales and deflator

Member States deflate the retail sales turnover index according to an appropriate price index.

The prices used to calculate the deflator for a sector are calculated as a weighted average of the relevant goods price indices for that sector. It is essential that all price-determining characteristics of the products are taken into account for example: quantity of units sold, transport provided, rebates, guarantee conditions, destination. The specification must be such that in subsequent reference periods the observation unit is able to uniquely identify the good and to provide the appropriate price per unit.

The following rules apply for the definition of prices:

· Prices include VAT. If transport costs are included, this should be part of the product specification.

· In order to show the true evolution of price movements, it should be an actual transaction price, and not a list price.

Data transmission, seasonal adjustment and calculation method

Non deflated and deflated series of retail sales index are transmitted to Eurostat for the Division 52 of NACE rev.1 (Retail trade, excluding motor vehicles and motorcycles; repair of personal and household goods) and various aggregations thereof. The data are used to produce aggregate indicators for the European Union as a whole, and for the group of Member States participating in the euro-zone. The main aggregate published by Eurostat excludes repairs.

The reference period for the deflated index of retail sales is a calendar month. Aggregate data should be transmitted to Eurostat no later than two months after the end of the reference period. More detailed data have to be transmitted within three months. This deadline may, however, be extended by up to one month for those Member States whose value added in Division 52 of NACE Rev.1 for a given base year represents less than 3% of the European Union total.

The weight used for the volume index of retail sales is derived from annual structural data, other sales statistics or from information coming directly from the Member States. The weighting system is based on (domestic) turnover. Weights and base year are revised every five years. The currently used weights and base year are from the year 1995.

The volume index of retail sales is compared with the result of the annual structural inquiry and other statistics in order to check for inconsistencies.

The STS-Regulation requires Member States to transmit working days adjusted indices which are based on national methods. They may also transmit seasonally adjusted and trend-cycle indices, based on national seasonal adjustment methods, which may differ between Member States. If data are not transmitted in these forms, Eurostat may produce seasonally adjusted and trend cycle series for these variables. For the figures by Member States, Eurostat publishes nationally adjusted data if available, otherwise it makes the adjustment itself.

For the calculation of the euro-zone and the EU15 seasonally adjusted (and trend-cycle) aggregates[5] Eurostat uses the so-called direct method. It means that in a first step, the working day adjusted data of Member States are aggregated by Eurostat to give working day adjusted euro-zone and EU15 series. In a second step, Eurostat proceeds to the seasonally adjustment using the TRAMO & SEATS method. Missing country data for the euro-zone and EU15 aggregates are estimated using an ARIMA method. For this reason the euro-zone and EU-15 seasonally adjusted (trend-cycle) growth rates might differ from the weighted mean of the growth rates of the individual Member States. As this so-called direct method is not only used for the total, but also for its components (food, clothing, equipment), the growth rates for the aggregates (euro-zone and EU-15) might also differ from the weighted average of their components. In addition, it should be noted that the total of the 3 components represents a little less than 70% of the aggregates.

Dissemination

Since the reference month “January 2000” Eurostat publishes two rates in its monthly news release:

· month on month seasonally adjusted,

· year on year working day adjusted.

Eurostat publishes the following aggregates both for EU15 and for the euro-zone:

· Total volume index of retail sales (deflated sales)[6], NACE 52 except 52.7,

· Food, beverages and tobacco, NACE 52.2+52.11,

· Textiles, clothing and footwear, NACE 52.41-52.43,

· Household equipment, NACE 52.44-52.46.

More series are available on request.

Information about the main volume indices of retail sales are available free of charge on Eurostat’s Internet site:

http://europa.eu.int/comm/eurostat/

More detailed data and series are available in the "Monthly Panorama of European Business", and from the "ebt" domain in the reference database "New Cronos".

Contacts

For more information, please contact the Short-term Statistics Section, Unit D3, Eurostat:

Ø Ourania Govotsou (Tel: +352-4301-32877, Fax +352-4301-34359, ourania.govotsou@cec.eu.int)

Ø Gunter Schäfer (Tel: +352-4301-33566, Fax +352-4301-34359, gunter.schaefer@cec.eu.int)

or see our Internet site for business statistics methodology "Business Methods" at:

http://forum.europa.eu.int/Public/irc/dsis/bmethods/home

[1] NACE 52 includes resale (sale without transformation) of new and used goods to the general public for personal or household consumption or utilization, by shops, department stores, stalls, mail-order houses, hawkers and peddlers, consumer cooperatives, etc. It includes also repair and installation of personal or household goods whether or not done in combination with retail sale and retail sale by commission agents. It excludes sale of motor vehicles, motorcycles and their parts and of fuel for these articles, trade in cereals, grains, ores, crude petroleum, industrial chemicals, iron and steel and industrial machinery and equipment, sale of food and drinks for consumption on the premises and sale of take-away food.

[2] Official Journal No L 162, of 5^th June 1998. Also available via the "Business Methods" Internet site:
http://forum.europa.eu.int/Public/irc/dsis/bmethods/home

[3] According to the STS-Regulation, the final deadline for the full implementation of this index is mid-2003.

[4] The expressions “turnover”, “sales”, “deliveries” and “shipments” are often used as synonyms in the context of short term statistics.

[5] Excluding repairs. Member State weights in the total index in EU15 (and in euro-zone):
Belgium 3.0% (3.8%), Denmark 1.8% (-), Germany 22.9% (28.7%), Greece 1.4% (-), Spain 8.1% (10.2%), France 16.5% (20.6%), Ireland 0.6% (0.8%), Italy 18.8% (23.5%), Luxembourg 0.2% (0.2%), Netherlands 4.8% (6.0%), Austria 2.3% (2.8%), Portugal 1.4% (1.8%), Finland 1.3% (1.6%), Sweden 2.0% (-), UK 14.7% (-)

[6] The groupings published in the retail sales index have the following weight in EU15 (and in euro-zone): food, beverages and tobacco 40.9% (40.1%), textiles, clothing and footwear 13.0% (12.6%), household equipment 14.8% (15.5%). Other sectors of the retail sales index include pharmaceutical, medical, cosmetic and toiletries, books & newspapers, second-hand goods, retail sales via mail, and non-store markets.

		Aug-99	Sep-99	Oct-99	Nov-99	Dec-99	Jan-00
Euro-zone	Total retail trade	0.3	-0.2	1.1	0.0	0.0	0.3
	Food, drinks, tobacco	0.2	0.3	0.8	-0.1	-0.1	0.3
	Textiles, clothing, footwear	0.5	-3.1	4.2	-0.3	-0.7	-0.8
	Household goods	1.1	-1.4	0.9	0.4	-1.1	0.6

EU15	Total retail trade	0.4	-0.1	0.9	0.1	0.2	0.3
	Food, drinks, tobacco	0.2	0.3	0.9	-0.1	0.0	0.0
	Textiles, clothing, footwear	0.8	-2.6	3.4	-0.1	-0.2	-0.3
	Household goods	1.2	-0.9	0.7	0.6	-0.3	1.3

	Aug-99	Sep-99	Oct-99	Nov-99	Dec-99	Jan-00
Euro-zone	0.3	-0.2	1.1	0.0	0.0	0.3
EU15	0.4	-0.1	0.9	0.1	0.2	0.3
Belgium	-0.7	-2.4	2.8	2.4	0.8	:
Denmark	0.6	-1.4	2.1	0.2	1.3	:
Germany	0.9	-2.8	2.8	-1.2	-0.1	-1.9
Spain	-0.4	-1.0	1.3	1.2	-0.3	3.0
France	-0.5	-0.9	6.0	1.7	-6.6	:
Greece	-0.3	-0.6	0.4	0.6	0.3	:
Ireland	-1.9	:	:	:	:	:
Italy	0.1	0.3	0.4	-0.1	-0.1	0.1
Luxembourg	-2.3	0.2	-0.2	0.8	:	:
Netherlands	0.5	-0.4	1.0	0.3	0.8	-0.3
Austria	1.8	-2.8	0.3	0.4	-1.7	1.3
Finland	0.2	-0.2	0.2	-1.8	2.6	1.8
Sweden	2.7	-2.7	1.2	1.8	0.9	0.5
United Kingdom	0.6	0.0	0.8	0.3	0.6	1.6

		Aug-99	Sep-99	Oct-99	Nov-99	Dec-99	Jan-00
Euro-zone	Total retail trade	2.5	1.1	4.5	2.7	2.3	2.3
	Food, drinks, tobacco	2.8	3.2	5.8	3.4	2.1	2.3
	Textiles, clothing, footwear	0.9	-6.7	4.8	2.4	1.8	-1.7
	Household goods	4.5	3.1	3.3	3.2	3.1	2.2

EU15	Total retail trade	2.9	1.5	4.5	3.1	3.0	3.0
	Food, drinks, tobacco	2.7	3.0	5.0	3.2	3.0	2.5
	Textiles, clothing, footwear	2.0	-4.7	5.0	2.8	3.2	0.3
	Household goods	5.7	3.8	4.5	4.6	4.0	4.7

	Aug-99	Sep-99	Oct-99	Nov-99	Dec-99	Jan-00
Euro-zone	2.5	1.1	4.5	2.7	2.3	2.3
EU15	2.9	1.5	4.4	3.1	3.0	3.0
Belgium	1.1	-0.2	3.1	7.1	7.2	:
Denmark	-0.5	-0.8	1.0	1.4	2.0	:
Germany	2.4	-2.8	2.5	-0.4	-0.1	-3.2
Spain	4.1	3.0	2.7	4.1	4.4	8.6
France	3.7	3.9	9.1	5.0	4.0	:
Greece	4.3	1.1	3.8	2.1	2.1	:
Ireland	8.9	:	:	:	:	:
Italy	-0.7	1.0	3.4	2.7	0.9	1.1
Luxembourg	-4.2	0.8	2.2	-0.1	:	:
Netherlands	4.1	2.5	4.3	3.8	5.3	3.9
Austria	8.5	4.1	6.0	4.1	3.7	5.6
Finland	3.9	3.9	4.5	-0.4	3.0	7.4
Sweden	7.4	3.8	4.8	7.3	9.1	7.5
United Kingdom	4.6	3.5	4.4	4.6	5.8	6.3

No 47/2000

Volume of retail trade up by 2.3% in the euro-zone

Oct-99

Eurostat Press Office

L-2920 LUXEMBOURG

Tel: +352-4301 33 444

Fax: +352-4301 35 349

Fax: +352-4301 34 359

Gunter SCHÄFER

Volume of sales and deflator