6/2003 - 10 January 2003

First demographic estimates

74.5 million in the Acceding countries

According to the first demographic estimates for 2002, published¹ today by Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities in Luxembourg, the EU had a population of 378.5 million on 1 January 2003². The population of the euro zone³ is estimated at 305.1 million, and that of the 10 Acceding Countries⁴ at 74.5 million.

While the population increased by 3.6‰ in the EU in 2002, it decreased by 1.8‰ in the Acceding Countries. This difference is due to divergences in both natural growth (EU: +0.8‰, AC10: -1.1‰) and net migration (EU: +2.7‰, AC10: -0.7‰).

The natural increase in the population of the EU (live births minus deaths) is expected to be +310 000 in 2002, down on the 2001 figure (+370 000), and net migration is likely to be slightly down, from +1 150 000 in 2001 to +1 030 000 in 2002. In total, the EU population is estimated to have increased by 1 340 000 in 2002. This is in line with the past few years, but still modest compared with growth in the 1950s and 1960s.

There were fewer births but more deaths in the EU in 2002. Live births in the EU are expected to reach a post-war low of 3.99 million in 2002, about 0.3% fewer than in 2001. The highest birth rates were in Ireland (14.8 live births per 1000 inhabitants), France (12.9‰) and the Netherlands (12.5‰). Germany (8.8‰), Greece (9.0‰), Italy and Austria (both 9.6‰) recorded the lowest rates. In the Acceding Countries, the highest birth rate was found in Cyprus (10.8‰, the only rate above the EU average), and the lowest in Latvia (8.5‰).

There are likely to have been 3.68 million deaths in the EU in 2002, about 60 000 more than in 2001, as the effect of growing numbers of elderly people started to outweigh the fall in death rates. The highest rates in 2002 were in Denmark (10.9 deaths per 1000 inhabitants) and Sweden (10.6‰), and the lowest in Ireland (7.7‰) and Luxembourg (8.3‰). In the Acceding Countries, the highest death rate was found in Latvia (13.8‰), and the lowest in Cyprus (6.4‰).

The natural growth of the population is expected to be highest in Ireland (7.1 per 1000 inhabitants), France (4.0‰) and the Netherlands (3.8‰). Three Member States recorded a decrease: Germany (-1.4‰), Greece (-0.4‰) and Italy (-0.3‰). In the Acceding Countries, there was a natural increase only in Cyprus (4.4‰) and Malta (1.9‰). The largest decrease was found in Latvia (-5.3‰).

In 2002, more than three quarters of the increase in the EU's population came from cross-border migration. Germany and Spain accounted for 22% each of all the net migration within the EU, Italy 15% and the United Kingdom 10%.

In relative terms, the largest net migratory flows were to Luxembourg and Portugal (both +6.7 per 1000 inhabitants), Spain (+5.6‰) and Ireland (+5.1‰), whilst France (+1.0‰), Finland (+1.1‰), the Netherlands and the United Kingdom (both +1.8‰) had the lowest migration rates. Without net inward migration, Germany, Greece and Italy would have seen a decline in their populations.

In 2002, five Acceding Countries recorded more emigration than immigration, in particular the Czech Republic (-4.7‰) and Latvia (-2.0‰). Migration flows had little impact in Slovakia, while the highest net migration rates were observed in Cyprus (+4.9‰) and Malta (+2.3‰).

In short, whereas the populations of all the EU Member States increased in 2002, the changes were notably different. The largest increases were in Ireland (+12.2‰) and Luxembourg (+10.3‰) and the smallest in Germany (+1.4‰) and Italy (+2.3‰).

Seven out of the 10 Acceding Countries, in particular Latvia (-7.3‰) and the Czech Republic (-6.1‰), had declining populations in 2002, whilst the only rises were in Cyprus (+9.3‰), Malta (+4.2‰) and Slovenia (+1.1‰).

1. Eurostat, Statistics in focus, Population and social conditions, n° 25/2002, "First demographic estimates for 2002".

Eurostat will also publish this month: "European social statistics - Demography - 2002 edition", 170 pages, ISBN 92-894-4324-3, EUR 50 (excluding VAT). This detailed publication (which includes a CD-ROM) has population breakdowns by sex and age group, statistics on births, deaths, migration, marriages, divorces, fertility, life expectancy and population projections. It also includes many post-1960 time series.

2. Population censuses were held in 2000 and 2001 in most EU countries. This has led to lower than expected population counts on 1 January 2001 and 2002, notably for Italy and the UK.
3. Euro zone: Belgium, Germany, Greece, Spain, France, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland.
4. Acceding countries: Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia.

Issued by:

Eurostat publications on the Internet:

Eurostat Data Shop Network

* Government controlled area

** Including corrections due to population censuses, register counts, etc, which cannot be classified as births, deaths or migrations.