Under the baseline scenario of the latest population projections issued by Eurostat, the European Union’s population will decrease by almost 4%, or 20 million people, between 1 January 2018 and 1 January 2100.
Following years of steady increase, the EU’s population is projected to peak at 525 million persons in 2044, and then to progressively fall.
An ageing society
Under this baseline scenario, the EU’s population will continue to grow older generally. The proportion of children is projected to decrease slightly from a share of 16% at the beginning of 2018 to 14% by 2100. Similarly, the share of working-age people in the EU’s total population is projected to decrease from 65% in 2018 to 55% in 2100.
In contrast, the share of those aged 65 years or above in EU’s total population is projected to increase by 11 percentage points, from 20% at the start of 2018 to 31% by 2100. In the same period, the share of those aged 80 years or above is calculated to almost triple, from 6% to 15%.
As a result, the median age is projected to increase from the current 43.1 years to 48.7 in 2100.
The source dataset is accessible here.
By 2100, fewer than two working-age people for each person aged 65+ in all EU Member States
As a result of these population changes, the EU’s old-age dependency ratio is projected to almost double from 31% in 2018 to 57% in 2100. This corresponds to fewer than two people of working-age for each elderly person aged 65 or over by 2100.
By 2100, the old-age dependency ratio is projected to range from 53% in Belgium, Luxembourg and Sweden up to 70% in Portugal and 72% in Croatia.
The source dataset is accessible here.
Methodological note: Eurostat’s population projections result from a set of assumptions on future developments for fertility, mortality and net migration. In other words, population projections are ‘what-if’ scenarios that track population developments under a set of assumptions. For this reason, population projections should not be considered as forecasts.
Given the intrinsic uncertainty of future population dynamics, such results should be interpreted as only one of a range of possible demographic developments.
This article presents a concise summary of the results from the ‘baseline scenario’, calculated on the basis of assumptions for fertility, mortality and migration. Underlying assumptions are presented as yearly time series from 2018 to 2100.
For further information:
Eurostat news release on the EU population
Eurostat database of population projections
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