LR3_1 Capture-recapture method and log-linear models to estimate register undercoverage

Document date: 
Tuesday, 29 August, 2017

Papers reviewed:

S. Gerritse, P.G.M. van der Heijden, B.F.M. Bakker. Sensitivity of Population Size Estimation for Violating Parameter Assumptions in Log - linear Models. Journal of Official Statistics , Vol. 31, No 3, 2015, pp . 357 - 379, http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/JOS-2015-0022.

Heijden, P.G.M. van der, Whittaker, J., Cruyff, M.J.L.F., Bakker, B.F.M., and Van der Vliet, H.N. (2012). People born in the Middle East but residing in the Netherlands: Invariant population size estimates and the role of active and passive covari ates. The Annals of Applied Statistics 6, 831 – 852.

The beginning of using capture-recapture method for population size estimation is found in the nature sciences to estimate, for example, the number of fish in a lake. Some amount of fish is caught, counted, marked and released back to the lake. It is captured. The fish is being caught repeatedly, counted and the proportion of the recaptured marked fish is used to estimate the number of fish in the lake. For estimation of a human population size two lists of the same population are used instead of capture and recapture. One of the first applications of the method to the human population size estimation is found in India in 1947, in the paper by Sekar and Deming (1949). Nowadays the method is used often to estimate census undercount and its importance is especially increasing for register based censuses and register based statistics in general.

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