The project stems from the need to provide timelier data on income, poverty, and social exclusion in order to feed the discussions in the context of the European Semester (including the early alert mechanism and the MIP).
Timeliness of survey data on income and inequality can be improved, but for maintaining an appropriate level of quality, these improvements have limits; in the best case scenario, SILC data on income year N-1 could be available early year N+1.
Therefore, for providing earlier information an approach based on modelling (nowcasting) is necessary.
The plan is to have flash estimates for indicators concerning the evolution of income distribution year N-1 released in the beginning of the Semester (autumn year N). During the Semester, when preparing country specific reports, real (SILC) data on income N-1 would become available.
The current work is focused on three methodological streams:
1) Evolution of income components (microsimulation)
2) Parametric, Quantile-based model using Macro covariates (PQM)
3) Current income