Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT)

Short Term Statistics Department/ Turnover and Volume Indicators Group

Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) Devlet Mah.Necatibey Cad. No:114 06420 Çankaya/ANKARA

Retail Sales Indices: Retail Sales Indices measures sales of retail trade enterprises of different types and sizes on a monthly basis. In addition to measuring the development of retail trade sector the index is also considered as an indicator of consumer confidence and household demand. For this reason, it is accepted as one of the most important indicators to monitor the economic condition. Indices are produced as both value (current prices) and volume (constant prices) terms.

The Retail Sales Index is a volume index. The index measures the output change of the “Section 47-Retail Trade (excluding Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles)” sector according to the NACE Rev.2 activity classification.

Trade Turnover Index: The trade turnover index aims to show the development of turnover in trade sector which includes 45, 46 and 47 sectors.

All the enterprises which give VAT and SCT declarations to the Revenue Administration are included in the index calculation.

NACE Rev. 2.

The retail sales indices cover the “Division 47 - Retail Trade (Except Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles)” of NACE Rev.2 activity classification.

G- Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles

Retail Trade Turnover:  Turnover comprises the total value of goods and services invoiced by enterprise in reference month and this corresponds to market sales of goods and services supplied to third parties. Turnover includes invoiced by unit vis-a-vis its customer other all taxes and duties. Turnover also includes all other charges (transport, packaging, etc.) passed on to the customer, even if these charges are listed separately in the invoice.

Turnover does not include price decline, discount and allowance, recycling package. The income which is classified in the company’s account as other business income, financial income and extraordinary income are excluded in turnover. Business subventions obtained from the government are also excluded.

Calculation of volume index: Indices measuring retail sales are produced as both value (current prices) and volume (constant prices) terms. As volume measurement is adjusted from price effects, evaluated as Retail Sales Volume Index.

In calculation of Retail Sales Indices at current prices are deflated by price relatives. CPI indices and average price data are used for this deflation process. For this purpose, CPI results produced at "Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose (COICOP)" level are calculated according to NACE Rev.2 level. The COICOP NACE transformation is achieved by using the results of the "Annual Turnover Survey By Products”.

As a result of deflating current price Turnover Index by price relatives at appropriate levels, Retail Sales Volume Index with constant prices is reached. 

The variables used to calculate Turnover index:

Turnover comprises the total value of goods and services invoiced by enterprise in reference month and this corresponds to market sales of goods and services supplied to third parties. Turnover includes invoiced by unit vis-a-vis its customer other all taxes and duties. Turnover also includes all other charges (transport, packaging, etc.) passed on to the customer, even if these charges are listed separately in the invoice.

Turnover does not include price decline, discount and allowance, recycling package. The income which is classified in the company’s account as other business income, financial income and extraordinary income are excluded in turnover. Business subventions obtained from the government are also excluded.

TOVV for sector G has not been published yet.

Enterprise

Enterprises which issue VAT and SCT declerations.

Türkiye

Series of retail sales indices start from January 2010.

Series of trade turnover index start from 2009.

2015=100

Indices and percentage changes.

Monthly.

Legal basis: Statistical Law of TURKSTAT no. 5429, of 10th November 2005 is the legal basis of all statistics.

- REGULATION (EU) 2019/2152 OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL of 27 November 2019 on European business statistics, repealing 10 legal acts in the field of business statistics.

- COMMISSION IMPLEMENTING REGULATION (EU) 2020/1197 of 30 July 2020 laying down technical specifications and arrangements pursuant to Regulation (EU) 2019/2152 of the European Parliament and of the Council on European business statistics repealing 10 legal acts in the field of business statistics.

Unadjusted, calendar adjusted and seasonal and calendar adjusted indices are transmitted to Eurostat. If requested, indices are shared with all international and national instutions and researchers under data confidentiality rules.

All statistics collected and published by TURKSTAT are governed by the Turkish Statistical Law no. 5429, of 10 November 2005.

If the number of statistical units in any cell of the data table formed by aggregating the individual data is less than three, or if one or two of the statistical units are dominant even if the number of units is three or more, the data in the concerned cell is considered confidential. Confidential data can be published only when combined with other data so as not to allow any direct or indirect identification. All measures to prevent any illicit access, use or revelation of the confidential data shall be taken by the institutions and organisations producing official statistics.
The confidential data compiled, processed and preserved for the production of official statistics cannot be delivered to any administrative, judiciary or military authority or person, can not be used for purposes other than statistics or as an instrument of proof. Confidential data can be accessed only by persons involved in the production of official statistics, to the extent that they are needed for performing their duties properly.

The data release calendar  for statistical outputs is prepared on an annual basis and it is publicly announced on the National Data Release Calendar section of the website.

Publication dates and times of the press releases published by the Turkish Statistical Institute are available at https://www.tuik.gov.tr/Kurumsal/Veri_Takvimi

The data are released to all interested parties simultaneously when the news releases are disseminated on the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) website http://www.turkstat.gov.tr.

There is no internal governmental access to data before their release to the public.

Series are transmitted to Eurostat at the same day with the press release. Data is transmitted to Eurostat via Edamis4 by using SDMX-RI tools.

Monthly.

Under the Statistical Law, any data product prepared under that law must be identified. Technical commentaries prepared by TURKSTAT accompany the news release.

 Retail Sales Indices and Trade Turnover Index news releases can be accessed from the link below.

https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Kategori/GetKategori?p=ticaret-ve-hizmet-115&dil=1

The results of the indices are published in the news release “Retail Sales Indices”.

Retail Sales Indices and Turnover Indices are published monthly in a news release via the internet and a database is available.

The results of the sector G is published and disseminated in the publication "Turnover Indices" in English and Turkish.

Online database is available (unadjusted, calendar adjusted, seasonally adjusted indices):

https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/medas/?kn=70&locale=en

Micro-data access is not available to the public or private users.

Unadjusted, calendar adjusted and seasonal and calendar adjusted series are transmitted to Eurostat at the same day with the press release. The transmission is done via EDAMIS4.

Dissemination of documentation on methodology and sources used in preparing statistics: Dissemination of documentation on methodology and sources used in preparing statistics: Methodology and sources used in statistical compilation are disseminated on the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) website (http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1098).

The tables published with the retail sales indices press release are as follows:

1) Retail sales volume index and percentage changes (2015=100)

2) Retail turnover index and percentage change (2015=100)

Description of standard tables produced: Data for sector G is given as indices at the 2-digit NACE Rev. 2 level in the press release. Trade Turnover Index (2015=100) is published under "Turnover Indices Press Release".

Not available.

Not announced to public or not published but some quality checks are made for accuracy and quality assesment of indices. These are;

1- Micro data and indices are examined by the group stuff by using sql codes in TOAD. 

2- Very high changes in companies' turnover data are analyzed.

3- Impact and contribution analysis are done on enterprise basis by sectors.

Retail Sales Indices are detected for below criterias;

- Relevance; Getting opinions from users (public or private) about calculating indices and olso take technical support/advice from Eurostat stuff.

- Accuracy and reliability; Data source and results are regularly assessed and validated. Revisions to develop statistical process is analyzed regularly.

- Timeliness and punctuality; Dissemination of press release and indices date and time are announced to public at the beginning of the year. Can be accessed here. http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/ingtakvim/tkvim.zul#tb1 Possible deviations from the publishing calendar, and a new date is notified to the public.

- Comparability; All turnover indices are comparable with EU and other countries. Methodological studies are done with close cooperation between Eurostat.

- Coherence; Eurostat and other international disclosure standards are covered.

The main users of statistical information are Eurostat, State institutions and agencies, international organisations, the media, research and business communities, students. The users' needs are satisfied without a breach of the confidentiality principle.

Opinions from users (public or private) about calculating indices and technical support/advice from Eurostat staff always taken into consideration. But there is no survey which evaluates users satisfaction.

Data are compliant with EU Regulations and national laws.

Errors may be encountered due to incorrect coding of the activity at the source. Activity checks are made and enterprises that are found to have different activities from the activity specified in  the source data are identified.

At the same time, enterprises whose turnover is incompatible with the series are questioned and their reasons are tried to be determined.

As all the enterprises that submit VAT declarations to the Revenue Administration are included in the index calculation, there is no sampling error.

Not available because of the usage of administrative sources.

42 days. Results are published in an average of 42 days from the reference month.

Timetable of data collection: VAT  and SCT declarations are compiled monthly from the Revenue Administration on the 1-5th day of the month.

The news releases are published according to the announced release calendar.

Retail Sales Indices are comparable with EU and other countries. Methodological studies are done with close cooperation between Eurostat.

The same statistical definitions are applied in the entire Turkish national territory.

It is produced and disseminated at average t+42 days. Retail Sales Indices are available from 2010, trade turnover index is available from 2009. There are no breaks in the series.

Comparisons are made with relevant other declerations and made with previous STS-values (previous month and year).

There is internal consistency.

Cost and burden is not available because of administrative data usage.

In the series which are not seasonal and calendar adjusted;

            1. Index values are revised for previous two months with the release of current month,

            2. Index values are revised for last two years at the end of the reference period.

In the series which are seasonal and calendar adjusted;

            1. Index values are revised each month for last three years,

            2. According to system and methodology, if there is a change; the model structure, parameters and outlier structure are modified in the end of each year. Therefore series are revised.

  Same revsion policy is applied nationally and in transmissions to Eurostat.

Provision of information about revision and advance notice of major changes in methodology: The press releases indicates that the data are preliminary and are subject to revision. The preliminary results are final at the end of two years. Any major changes in methodology are announced at the time of the change and the data compiled using the revised methodology is released.

Benchmarking: Not available

Indicators shown below; average size of revisions, where revision is defined as the difference between final and preliminary estimators, is used for data revision practice. MR and MAR values were obtained with the information of its last 36 final months being December 2021 the last one.

For Retail Trade Sales Indices;

Turnover index

MR: -0,05

MAR: 0,02

Volume of sales index

MR: 0,31

MAR: 0,01

Data source is administrative records.

VAT declarations received monthly from the Revenue Administration are used.

Data is taken from the revenue administration via File Transfer Protocol (FTP). Afterwards, validations  are done and the data is transferred to the database by the relevant IT unit . 

Data are collected monthly.

Data sources:

VAT and SCT declarations are compiled monthly from Revenue Administration.

Method of weighting:

Not available

Sampling and full enumeration:

Full enumeration

Aggregation:

Retail Sales Indices are aggregated for food, drinks and tobacco; non-food (except automotive fuel); automotive fuel activities of NACE Rev.2 classification and for Retail Trade in general.

Micro data and indices are examined by using sql codes in TOAD. 

Index type: A simple index is used which is calculated by dividing the relevant levels by the base year averages.

Calculation of retail volume index: Indices measuring retail sales are produced with constant prices. Volume measurement is obtained by adjusting turnover data from price effects.

In calculation of Retail Sales Indices at current prices are deflated by price relatives. CPI indices and average price data are used for this deflation process. For this purpose, CPI results produced at "Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose (COICOP)" level are calculated according to NACE Rev.2 level. The COICOP NACE transformation is achieved by using the results of the "Annual Turnover Survey By Products”.

As a result of deflating current price Turnover Index by price relatives at appropriate levels, Retail Sales Volume Index with constant prices is reached. Since the price indices used are compiled as VAT included, the Turnover Indices are also calculated in VAT included form before deflation process. Thus, the possible changes in the VAT rates do not affect the volume measure.

Seasonal and calendar related effects prevent observing the general tendency of data because of their temporary characteristics. Therefore, identification of seasonal patterns of short term indicators plays crucial role in order to make reliable comparisons between consecutive periods 

Method Used

The seasonal adjustment of Retail Sales Indices is carried out using TRAMO-SEATS methodology. The software that is used for the application of this method is JDemetra+2.2.2 developed by the National Bank of Belgium (NBB) in cooperation with the Deutsche Bundesbank and Eurostat in accordance with the Guidelines of the European Statistical System.

Seasonal Adjustment Process

Seasonal and calendar adjustment process of Retail Sales Indices begins at the end of each year with the identification of the models of next year.  This specified model structure is kept fixed throughout the year to adjust seasonally and/or calendar effects. At the end of the year, just like the previous year, specification of econometric estimation models for the following year is done. The identified process repeats itself in a cyclical manner each year.

The indices are seasonally and calendar adjusted at retail trade in general, food, drinks and tobacco, non-food (except automotive fuel), computers, peripheral units and software, books, telecommunications equipment, etc., audio and video equipment, hardware, paints and glass, electrical household appliances, furniture, etc, non-food, retail trade (except automotive fuel), non-specialised shops and automotive fuel activities. A substantial number of the subtitles of Retail Sales Indices contain seasonal and calendar effects. 

Direct or Indirect Approach

The approach in seasonal and calendar adjustment for Retail Sales Indices is indirect. Namely, the individual subtitles of retail trade series are seasonally adjusted and then aggregated to derive seasonally and calendar adjusted totals. The advantages of the indirect approach are easy calculation of contributions to growth from components of main aggregates and retaining additivity.

Revision Policy

Seasonal adjustment procedure is subject to revisions over time because of the re-estimation of seasonal component as new observations are added. These revisions are implemented on the data of the last three years excluding the current year.

Publication

Adjusted data has been published in 3 different ways.

- “Calendar adjusted” data is derived from unadjusted data by removing calendar and holiday originated effects. Calendar adjusted data should be used in comparisons regarding the same month/period of the previous year.

- “Seasonally adjusted” data is derived from unadjusted data by removing effects originating from seasonal effects. Seasonally adjusted data should be used in comparisons regarding the previous month/period.

- If unadjusted data contains both calendar and holiday, and seasonal effects, “seasonally and calendar adjusted” data is derived by removing these effects. Seasonally and calendar adjusted data should be used in comparisons regarding the previous month/period

• Residual seasonality is checked for 4-3-2 digit, section level and for each series
• Consistency are done amongst the different levels of breakdown

Additional information about seasonal adjustment can be found at the annexes part.

None.