National Statistical Institute

Short-term Business Statistics and Transport Statistics - Department

2, P. Volov Str.; 1038 Sofia, Bulgaria

The source for the compilation of the short-term indicators Net turnover index and Volume of sales is a monthly mandatory statistical survey "Sales in industry, construction, trade and services”. Data is collected on the indicators “net sales” on the basis of which short-term variable “turnover” is compiled.

The indices are calculated by fixed base (2015=100). This information is suitable for tracing the current economic development and short-term forecasts.

The index data are presented in the following forms:

• Unadjusted;
• Working-day adjusted;
• Seasonally-adjusted.

Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community(NACE Rev.2)

Activities covered: Section G of NACE Rev. 2

Since 2020, the turnover and volume of sales indexes for G45 and G46 are calculated at 3-th digit level of NACE Rev.2.

Trade turnover is defined in COUNCIL REGULATION (EC) 1503/2006 concerning short-term statistics as regards definitions of variables, list of variables and frequency of data compilation. The turnover includes all revenues from enterprises sales, which are invoiced during the reference period (incl. revenues from sale of row materials and materials, without VAT). Turnover also includes all other charges (transport, packaging, etc.) passed on to the customer, even if these charges are listed separately in the invoice.

The turnover index measures the change in the revenues from enterprises sales in current prices. The volume of sales is compiled from the deflated value of turnover. The deflators used are Consumer price indices, Producer price indices in industry and Producer prices in agriculture with a fixed base - 2015average annual prices.

The reference period covered is the calendar month.

Reporting unit - Enterprise.

Observation unit(s) – Enterprisе (Legal unit considered as enterprise)

The total population includes about 111 000 trade enterprises. The sampling population includes about 33 000 enterprises,of  which sample of approximately 5 000 units are surveyed each month. The small enterprises are axcluded from the monthly survey, the size of not surveyed small companies depends on the business concentration in each strata. The surveyed enterprises have more than 74.0% share in the total trade turnover.

All regions of Bulgaria are covered.

The indices are available as time series from January 2000 (G47) and January 2015 (G45, G46) to the last month of the current reporting year.

The base year is 2015

Indexes (%).

Month

National Legal basis: National Law on Statistics (Article 20) states that all persons that manage or represent legal persons, are obliged to provide the National Statistical Institute and the Bodies of Statistics with reliable data when filling-in forms and questionnaires on surveys included in the National Statistical Programme, for which mandatory participation is provided.

EU Legislation: Forthcoming new requirements for STS arising from Framework regulation integrating business statistics (FRIBS).

Obligation on units to provide data: The survey is included into the National Statistical Programme – it is compulsory.
The Law of statistics includes provisions relating to fines, which can be imposed for refusal, non-response and delay. They are laid down in specific Chapter 9 “Administrative and liability provisions” in article 52.

The indicator is transmitted monthly to the Eurostat.

REGULATION (EC) № 223/2009 on European statistics (recital 24 and Article 20(4)) of 11 March 2009, stipulates the need to establish common principles and guidelines ensuring the confidentiality of data used for the production of European statistics and the access to those confidential data with due account for technical developments and the requirements of users in democratic society.

The National Law on Statistics includes provisions relating to data confidentiality and protection of secrecy, which are in compliance with the EU legislation and standard European practice. In the Law is stated that individual data received and collected at the time of statistical surveys shall be statistical confidentiality and shall be used only for statistical purposes. Individual data, obtained for the purposes of the statistical surveys, shall not be used as evidence to the bodies of the executive powers and the judicial authorities. Requirements, obligations and measures for data protection, as well as fines that can be imposed, are treated in separate chapters, namely Chapter 6 on "Protection of secrecy” and Chapter 9 on "Administrative penal provisions”.

Article 25 of the Law on Statistics specifies the criteria, according to which certain data cannot be made public or released – individual data, data which could be indirectly identified, as well as aggregations of less than three statistical units and/or when the relative share of one parameter is more than 85% of the total volume of this parameter for all population units.

Data, which according to the Law on statistics are confidential, are not published.

Trede turnover and volume of sales indices for G are available 37 - 40 days after the end of the month

Release calendar : http://www.nsi.bg/en/content/480/basic-page/release-calendar-dates

Net turnover and Volume of sales indexes are published on the NSI website:

https://www.nsi.bg/en/content/6852/turnover-indices-section-g-wholesale-and-retail-trade-repair-motor-vehicles-and

No data produced and disseminated by the National Statistical Institute are provided to goverment officials outside of the NSI before being disseminated to the public.

The NSI transmits data to Eurostat 30 days (G47) and 60 days (G, G45, G46) after the end of the reference month with the required level of detail. Indexes are also transmitted to various institutes and ministries.

Monthly.

NSI publishesregular monthly press release Volume of sales indices (G47) 37 - 40 days after the end of the month.

None

Turnover and Volume of sales indices as a time series for section G of NACE Rev.2. are avaibable on the website of NSI - in the on-line database INFOSTAT.

Micro data are neither distributed nor provided to the users.

The indicators are transmitted to Eurostat on time,according to the requirements of STS Regulations. Special tables may be obtained from „Relation with users and e-services” department of NSI.

The methodology for the compilation of Turnover indexes is available on the NSI website:

 http://www.nsi.bg/sites/default/files/files/metadata/dTrade_Method_1_en.pdf

REGULATION (EC) № 1165/98 and amendment REGULATION (EC) № 1158/2005 on Short-term statistics required by the European Commission (Eurostat) regularly (every three years) to report to the European Parliament on the applicability of short-term data, their quality and revisions of the data. Every year Member States should present to Eurostat detailed information about the quality of a particular short-term indicator, which is part of the Principal European Economic Indicators (PEEIs). Latest Report on the quality of Retail trade turnover and Volume of sales indexes was prepared and submitted to Eurostat in 2006.

The legal framework which regulates the production of data from Short-term business statistics states that statistical data compiled within the EU system must be of satisfactory quality and produced data are comparable between Member States. Verification of data is done through the process of conducting a statistical survey - from respondents, from experts in the regional statistical offices and from national experts in NSI. Identified inaccuracies and errors are removed timely and >comparable data of good quality are provided.

The quality of statistical information and its production process is ensured by the provisions of the European Statistics Code of Practice. The documentation on quality management is available on the Internet: http://www.nsi.bg/en/content/475/basic-page/quality.

The quality assessment is based on quality requirements of the ESS (relevance, accuracy, timelines and punctuality, accessibility and clarity, coherence and comparability). The monitoring of the quality of the indicator, updating survey methodology, self-assessment of survey manager is carried out.

Main users of the information are:

•  Institutions at EU level – Eurostat, ECB;
•  Internal users: Directorate „Macroeconomic statistics“;
•  Presidency, National Assembly, Ministies, National Bank and other representatives of central and local  government;
•  Research institutes, universities;
•  Media, professional organizations, business.

Monthly turnover indexes measure changes in turnover between two different periods of time. This information is suitable for monitoring of current economic developments and short-term forecasts.

Not measured.

Indices are calculated at all levels of detail that are required by the Regulations concerning STS.

Sampling: The total population includes about 111 000 enterprises. The sampling population includes about 33 000 enterprises, of  which sample of approximately 5000 units are surveyed each month. The small enterprises are excluded from the monthly survey, the size of not surveyed small companies depends on the business concentration in each strata. The surveyed enterprises have more than 74% share in the total turnover.

Measurement errors: The common errors are measurement errors where the respondent misunderstands what information is required or incomplete performance. Most of measurement errors are detected and corrected through the logical and arithmetical controls of the Information system “Short-term statistics” (Online Information system for data collection, editing and processing of the STS information). The system carries out the statutory and warning controls and in a case there are errors, it displays a warning dialog error in the report. The system does not allow completion of the report until they have corrected these errors by statutory controls.

Revisions: Every month data is revised so data changes after the first release (data for the current month are published as preliminary and data for the previous month as final).

The specific sampling method is Stratified random sample in which first enterprises stratify by groups and then in each group by turnover. The stratums are: 1- exhaustive, 2 and 3 – sampling.

Coefficient of variation is used as an indicator on precision, computed as a percentage.

Errors made in the processing of the data are detected and removed by set arithmetic and logical controls of IS STS.

Non-response: The overall average response rate is around 95% in terms of the number of enterprises the weighted unit response rate for September 2019 id 98%. It varies significantly, depending on the principle activity and size of the enterprises.

Actions to reduce the non-response include:

• Sending the informative reminder letters to the respondents;
• Depending on the relative importance of non-respondents in terms of their size or representativeness in the activity, the postal survey is supplemented by telephone calls and/or direct contact and collection of data for enterprises.

Imputation: The data for non-responding units are imputed. The imputation is done only in case where there is information that the non-respondent units are active. Non-respondent enterprises are imputed depending on the activity and stratum.

Technical errors: are often recognized with automated checks during the data editing process. Many checks are carried out automatically, but under of human interaction. Original data from enterprises for a first time are checking from experts in RSOs. Final checks of data from respondents and the aggregated data analysis are done by responsible experts in Central office.

Coverage errors: The Register of statistical units (RSU) is the source of the sampling frame. RSU has direct online connection with the Trade Registry so the main characteristics of surveyed units are on-line updated. During the year the ceased enterprises are removed from the sample and new born enterprises from the exhaustive strata are included in the sample.

Multiple listing:  All statistical units in the RSU have unique identification number, so the multiple listing cannot occur.

Data are transmitted to Eurostat 30 days after the end of the reference month for G47 and 60 days after the end of the reference month for G45 and G46.

All deadlines are respected. There are no time lags between the actual delivery of the data to Eurostat and the target date when it should have been delivered.

Net turnover indices and Volume of sales are representative for the whole country, they are not representative for the regions of the country.

The methodology applied for calculation of the indices is in line with international standards, that provides good comparability of the indicators across the countries.

The monthly indices are presented as time series from the first month of 2000 (G47) and 2015 (G, G45, G46) according to NACE Rev.2., at base year 2015. Indexes are fully comparable over time.

The indices are compared with the indices calculated based on data from the annual Structural Business Statistics survey. The differences are due to different coverage. SBS survey is conducted exhaustively and all enterprises are legally obliged to submit their Annual Reports to the National Statistical Institute. The STS surveys are sampling surveys. Sampling population includes companies with a turnover of over 10 thousand BGN. The SBS turnover is a base for annual reconciliation of the STS indicators (Net turnover indices and Volume of sales).

Turnover data is cross-checks with annual SBS turnover; Monthly net turnover/volume of sales 

sub-indexes are coherent with the totals.

Information system “Short-term statistics” (IS STS) is the online system for data collection, data editing and data processing of STS information. IS STS provides more efficient way of collecting data from enterprises. This new system save recourses, reduce the burden of the reporting units and the quality of short term indicators is improved.

The Net turnover/Volume of sales indices usually are revised two times. Each month data for the current month are published as preliminary and for the previous month as final. At the beginning of each year the indexes for the previous year are reconciled on the basis of the comprehensive annual data from SBS.

Revision policy / practice in case of turnover indices in trade:

Major revisions are made when there is change of classification, methodology or base year. Users are informed about these changes in advance.

The same revision policy is applied to data released nationally as well as to the data transmitted to Eurostat.

The MR and MAR are calculated from the year-on-year growth rates  for calendar adjusted data of 2018, 2019 and 2020 year(G47 - deflated turnover).The base year is 2015 MR=0,83 and  MAR=1,91.

The growth rates for G45 and G46 are published at first time during February 2021 and QPI for these sections aren't calculated.

The indexes are based on monthly statistical survey ’Sales in industry, construction, trade and services’. Turnover includes all revenues from sales of products, goods and services (including revenues from sale of raw materials and materials).

The frame on which the source is based is Register of statistical units.

For indices estimation is conducted a sampling survey (the turnover is stratification variable). The stratification is made using two criteria 1) activity, defined in STS Regulation; 2) the amount of the turnover, grouped in a determined number of strata.  Each combination between these two criteria determines a cell. The boundaries of each stratum depend on the concentration of the companies in each activity group. The big trade companies are included in the sample exhaustively. The small enterprises are excluded from the monthly survey, the size of not surveyed small companies depends on the business concentration in each strata.   

The sample is updated every year. If during the year some significant enterprises undergo demographic changes (enter the industrial sector, merge, split-off, leave the industrial sector) they are taken into account.

Monthly.

One questionnaire is used - “Main short-term indicators”.

The information collected with that questionnaire regards:

• Receipts from sales (turnover);
• Value of sold materials and raw materials;

Data collection media:

• Online through Information system “Short-term business statistics” (IS STS);

• Paper questionnaire. The questionnaires are sent out to the respondents and collected by regional statistical offices, where the information is entered into IS STS.

To reduce non-response IS STS has functionality to send an electronic letters informing respondents about the upcoming observations, in which they are included. To enable them to attach and reporting forms in PDF format and official letters.

Validation of data in the report:

When recording the data, the Information system STS carries out obligatory and recommended controls according to set with validation rules. In the case there are errors, it displays a warning dialog error in the report. The system does not allow completion of the report until they have corrected these errors by statutory controls.

Validation of the output data:

Turnover data is verified at group level with regard to the previous month, the same month of the previous year and also with regard to extreme values, if necessary data is validated at the level of statistical units.

Estimates for non-response: Non-responses are treated using imputation techniques, depending on their stratum. In the case of non-responding enterprises from exhaustive strata imputation is made for each non-respondent enterprise separately using different techniques (estimates based on responses from the same enterprise in previous months, estimates based on responses from similar units from the same strata).Non-responses in sampling strata are estimated by adjusting the extrapolation coefficients to take account of response rates.

Since 2020, the turnover and volume of sales indexes for G45 and G46 are compiled at 3-th digit level of NACE Rev.2. Turnover and volume of sales indices at higher levels of aggregation (Division, Section G) are calculated as base weighted (Laspeyres) indices, in other words they are weighted according to the turnover in the base year. turnover from the structural business statistics survey for the base year is used as weights. The source for activity weights is the mandatory Annual Structural Business Statistics survey, which is conducted in accordance with the requirements of EU Regulations on SBS.

 For calculation of the volume of sales, the turnover is deflated with appropriate deflators based on information available from Consumer prices, Producer prices in industry and Producer prices in agriculture.

Estimates for grossing-up to population levels: For each cell from the sampling strata two coefficients are calculated. The first one is the ratio of the number of the units in the population for a given cell and the number of the units in the sample for the same cell. The secomd one is the ratio of the sum of the receipts for all units from the population for a given cell and the sum of the recepts of the units from the sample for the same cell. Within each cell the data of the units from the sampling strata are multiplied by the calculated coefficients for the respective cell. Then the values from the exhaustive strata are added to the extrapolated values. The grossed up results are used only to compile indexes, they are not disseminated with their own right.

In accordance with Regulations concerning STS, Net Turnover and Volume of Sales Indexes are to be seasonally and working day adjusted. The software used for seasonally and working day adjustment is JDemetra +. The method used is TRAMO-SEATS.

Direct seasonal adjustment is performed. All time series, including aggregates, are seasonally adjusted on an individual basis.

Revisions of seasonally and working day adjusted data:

• model updated once a year including revision of historical data,
• montly observations presented with revision 1 month backwards.

Not available.