Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia (CSB).

Business Statistical Department, Industrial and Construction Statistics section.

Lāčplēša Street 1, Riga, LV-1301

Industrial production output (110).
The purpose of the survey provision of data for the calculation of STS indicators and for the National Accounts to calculate GDP. The industrial production output are published as an index. The index data presented in the following forms:

• Unadjusted;
• Calendar adjusted;
• Seasonally adjusted.

NACE Rev. 2.

The survey covers sections B, C, D (Groups 35.1 and 35.2) of NACE Rev. 2.

During the reference year the survey covers enterprises where 20 or more persons are employed in industrial production or employing fewer than 20 people, to ensure that the data compiled on Divisions of NACE Rev. 2 (data at 2-digit level) cover at least 80 % of business structural statistics turnover in 2021.

Volume indices of industrial production characterize changes in the volume of industrial production during the reference period in comparison with the base period. Data refer to the production during the calendar month. Industrial production output includes value of shipments, receipts from industrial work performed, changes in stocks of finished products and work in progress during the reference month and value of fixed assets produced on own account.
Production index is based on the deflated production value. 

Observation unit - Kind of activity unit (KAU).

Reporting unit - Enterprise.

In 2023, number of enterprises surveyed monthly – 1521, the share of enterprises in the volume of industrial production exceeded 80%.

Data are collected from economically active enterprises if their main or secondary activity in compliance with Statistical Classification of Economic Activities (NACE Rev.2) is Mining and quarrying (Section B), Manufacturing (Section C), Electricity, gas, stream and air conditioning (Section D) excluding group 35.3 - "Steam and air conditioning supply" and if 20 and more persons are employed in industrial production or employing fewer than 20 people, to ensore that the data copiled on Divisions of NACE Rev.2 (data at 2-digit level) cover at least 80% of business structural statistics turnover in 2021. The population of enterprises surveyed during the reference year may be revised by supplementing it with new economically active enterprises (in line with the mentioned criteria), specifying economic activities of the enterprises, upon receipt of revised information from respondents, as well as when the latest data are received from administrative sources.

Latvia.

Time series for this indicator according to NACE Rev. 2 is available starting from 2000.

2015 = 100.

Index.

Month.

Official Statistics Law is the legal base of all statistics. 

https://likumi.lv/ta/en/en/id/274749

The questionnaire is adopted by the Rules of Cabinet of Minister of the Republic of Latvia No 812 of 20 December 2016.

Rules of Cabinet of Minister of the Republic of Latvia No 691 of 24 November 2020 concerning National Statistical Information program for the 2021 - 2023.

REGULATION (EC) No 1893/2006 OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL of 20 December 2006 establishing the statistical classification of economic activities NACE Revision 2 and amending Council Regulation (EEC) No 3037/90 as well as certain EC Regulations on specific statistical domains.

REGULATION (EC) No 223/2009 OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL of 11 March 2009 on European statistics and repealing Regulation (EC, Euratom) No 1101/2008 of the European Parliament and of the Council on the transmission of data subject to statistical confidentiality to the Statistical Office of the European Communities, Council Regulation (EC) No 322/97 on Community Statistics, and Council Decision 89/382/EEC, Euratom establishing a Committee on the Statistical Programmes of the European Communities.

COMMISSION IMPLEMENTING REGULATION(EU) 2020/1197 of 30 July 2020 laying down technical specifications and arrangements pursuant to Regulation (EU) 2019/2152 of the European Parliament and of the Council on European business statistics repealing 10 legal acts in the field of business statistics.

Industrial production index sent to the International Monetary Fund and United Nations Statistics Division.

Confidentiality of the information provided by respondents is protected by the Chapter III Section 17 of the Official Statistics Law stipulating rights and obligations of the Central Statistical Bureau and other state authorities producing official statistics.

Section 17. Data Processing and Statistical Confidentiality

(1) The statistical institution shall use the data that are obtained in accordance with Sections 14, 15, and 16 of this Law for the production of official statistics, with the exception of cases laid down in Sections 25 and 26 of this Law.

(2) The data may be modified, supplemented or combined with other data available to the statistical institution, as well as re-used for the production of other official statistics.

(3) In using data, the statistical institution has the right to establish and maintain statistical registers for the production of official statistics.

(4) The statistical institution shall determine the data storage duration, by taking into account the needs for production of official statistics.

(5) Data of a natural person obtained for the production of official statistics shall be anonymised immediately after collection, testing and linking thereof, except the case where personal data are still required for production of official statistics. The statistical institution shall ensure that the identifying data are stored safely and separately from other data.

(6) The statistical institution shall take all the necessary measures to prevent unauthorised access to data, data modification or dissemination, accidental or unauthorised destruction.

(7) Employees of the statistical institution shall not disclose data or any other restricted access information coming to their knowledge in the performance of their service or work duties. This shall also apply to persons who are temporarily involved in the production of official statistics or have terminated employment or service relations.

Statistical data shall be considered confidential if they directly or indirectly allow for identification of the private individuals or State authorities regarding which personal statistical data have been provided. Confidential data are treated by suppression. Data are confidential if there are 3 or less enterprises or one enterprise accounts for more then 80% or two of them more than 90%. Also the data of individual enterprises are confidential.

The final data on IPI are published on the 34^th day after the end of the reference period according to divisions of NACE Rev. The data are released simultaneously to all interested parties by issuing a press release at 13.00 o’clock of the local time. At the same date, data are also sent to Eurostat. Release calendar is available on the Official statistics portal.

Release calendar is available on the Official statistics portal: https://stat.gov.lv/en/calendar?Dates=%22Next+8+days%22

Data are released simultaneously to all interested parties by issuing the press release "Industrial production in xxx (month)"to both media and leading government officials.

Data are transmitted to Eurostat on the same day as they are nationally published, 34 days after the reference period.

Monthly, quarterly and yearly.

The following advance release calendar is available on the homepage:

• Advance release of the news release. Prepared at the end of year for upcoming year;
• Planned updates of statistical databases. Prepared at the end of year for upcoming year;
• Planned release dates at SDDS data page for the coming four months;
• Planned release week of statistical publications.

The data set is subsequently posted on the Official statistics portal. Press release and indicators are also published on the Internet . The CSB publishes monthly, quarterly and annual data of the total production index on the Internet website (https://stat.gov.lv/en/search?Search=%22%22&DataSource=%22data%22&Type=%5B%22table%22%5D&Themes=%222374%22).

The data set is subsequently posted on the Official statistics portal. Press release and indicators are also published on the Internet.  The production index is published in the “Statistical Yearbook of Latvia” – annual.

Information on industrial production indices is available on the Official statistics portal database under section Business sectors/Industry.

Comparable time series are available since 2000 (with the base year 2015).

Data are published in the statistical database, in addition to the total index, indices for each field of activity (mainly at the 2-digit level of NACE Rev.2).

Official statistic portal database https://stat.gov.lv/en/search?Search=%22%22&DataSource=%22data%22&Type=%5B%22table%22%5D include monthly, quarterly and annual time series for the following detailed data: seasonally adjusted, unadjusted and by working day adjusted data on the total production index: the period compared with the previous period; and the period compared with the corresponding period of the previous year and 2015=100. Official statistics portal disseminates also seasonally adjusted and unadjusted time series for the main industrial groupings showing current period in comparison with the previous period, and the current period in comparison with the corresponding period of the previous year and 2015=100.

Not available.

Data are sent to Eurostat and information on industrial production is available on the homepage of Statistical Office of the European Union (EUROSTAT) in section: Database/Short-term business statistics/Industry: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

A short description of the methodology and sources used to compile the industrial production indices are available on the Official statistics portal. 

https://stat.gov.lv/en/metadata/5717-volume-indices-industrial-production

An explanation of terms and conditions in English is given by the Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board of International Monetary Fund.

The CSB of Latvia has established a quality framework based on Operational Strategy of the CSB, mid-term Strategic Goals in Quality in Statistics and Action Plan of implementation of strategic goals in quality in statistics. Monitoring of Action Plan is performed monthly.
The CSB in its actions takes into consideration the European Statistics Code of Practice, the Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics of United Nations and ESS Quality Declaration as well as other related legal acts.

Metadata  for IPI is prepared each month and disseminated on the Official Statistics Portal.

The quality of CSB statistics is assessed according to five quality criteria: relevance, accuracy, timeliness and punctuality, accessibility and clarity, coherence and comparability.
The quality indicators are calculated taking into account Eurostat methodology for the calculation of Quality indicators and documented into Project's Documentation System.

https://www.csp.gov.lv/en/quality-assurance-framework

Every month the following indicators for quality monitoring and assurance are calculated: fields of relevance, accuracy and reliability, timeliness and punctuality, comparability, coherence are completed.

Data on industrial production index for users are available on the Official statistics portal database. Data are updated every month. The main users are: Eurostat, Bank of Latvia, European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Economy, Quarterly National Account Section of Macroeconomic Statistics Department (internal user).

We don’t receive any special feedback from our users and no user satisfaction survey has been done for this statistics. Official Statistics Portal data flow is monitored

Statistics on industrial production index is available on a monthly basis in accordance with the requirements of Regulation No 2019/2152

Data are collected from economically active enterprises if their main or secondary activity in compliance with Statistical Classification of Economic Activities (NACE Rev.2) is Mining and quarrying (Section B), Manufacturing (Section C), Electricity, gas, stream and air conditioning (Section D) excluding group 35.3 - "Steam and air conditioning supply" and if 20 and more persons. The sample additionally includes enterprises employing fewer than 20 people, to ensure that the data compiled on Divisions of NACE Rev. 2 (data at 2-digit level) cover at least 80 % of business structural statistics turnover in 2021. The response rate is 95%. Accuracy of the first estimates is assessed by mean revision, wich is -0,25 for all industry (section B,C,D). Revisions of first estimates are made due to new responses as with the last month in quarter also previous month data are revised. Number of respondents surveyed by questionnaire is 1520. Population part that is cut off not exceeds 20 % in the share of total industrial turnover.

The accuracy is tackled at national level, by eliminating inconsistencies and errors.

Sampling errors are not calculated for IPI indices.

Over-coverage errors:

There is error in unit classification, because some units accessible via frame do not belong to the target population (in the case, when activity of enterprise has changed). This error not exceeds 1 %. The change of unit classification is cathed as soon as possible and the kind of activity is changed.

Data collection or access errors:

Data collection errors are minimised by data analysis (comparing industrial output with other data admin data and clarification of data).

Item non-response is 5 %.

Editing, coding and imputation errors:

As the small part of data is imputed (only 5 %) and imputation is made by using historical data of enterprise, the growth rate of similar enterprises in the same NACE code and the imputed value is chosen by expert judgement.

Modelling errors:

There are not models used for estimation.

The survey is compulsory. 34 days after the end of the reference month, when the first data are published, the response rate is close to 100%. Telephone contacts are used to follow-up the missing responses after the 15th date of the month. Data can be submitted electronically (used by 98% of respondents) and by e-mail (about 2%). At the time when data are provided to Eurostat and published nationally, the response rate is the same. Monthly non-response rate for the volume index of industrial output is under 5 % in the establishments included in the calculation, i.e., response rate comprises 95%. Imputation is used to compensate the non-response; this is made by means of previous replies and/or the replies of other businesses.

Production index is published at 13:00 o’clock of local time on the 34th day after the end of the reference month; if the 34th day is weekend or holiday, it is published on the next working day. Questionnaires are sent to the reporting unit at the end of the year for all months of the coming year, asking to give information on each reference month till the 15th date of the following month. Data collection normally is closed 5 days before the publication.

The data were published according to the release calendar and sent to Eurostat at the same date when published press release in Official statistics portal.

In 100% of cases data are published in line with the schedule.

Methods and definitions are comparable with the European ones and covers all national territory.

Industrial Production Index published on the Official statistics portal database is available free of charge; information includes monthly, quarterly and annual data starting from 2000 and onwards and according to the NACE Rev. 2 (down to two-digit level). Data are comparable over time.

Comparisons are made with monthly industrial turnover, quarterly net turnover and PRODCOM data as well as annual SBS data. The main difference between STS data and annual SBS data are due to different size of sample and different unit of observation (enterprise for SBS and kind of activity unit for STS). PRODCOM and STS data also vary because of different sample size and collecting data by manufactured products. National Accounts use STS data for GDP calculation, mostly there are coherence between data, some difference can be due to different method of calculation.

Computation of lowest level indices: the lowest-level indices are obtained by firstly deflating the gross output data in current prices for each NACE class to the prices of the base year using the corresponding producer price index at 4-digit NACE level. The index is calculated monthly for both the year reviewed and previous year. The higher level indices are derived by aggregating the basic indices using the value added at factor costs from the latest industrial structural survey as weights that are revised every year.

Aggregation: using base period weights, the lowest-level indices are progressively aggregated to 3- and 2-digit NACE levels, MIGs and total index. Total MIGs and Total Index have small differencess, thats why for publications Total index (2-digit NACE levels) is used.

In 2022, the number of enterprises surveyed monthly comprised 1 551 and their share in the total volume of industrial production exceeded 80% (from annual SBS data).

In Latvia, statistical questionnaires contain a question about the time necessary for respondents to fill in the questionnaire. According to the results, the annual average burden Industrial production in hours worked is 1.2 hours per respondent or totally 1426.6 hours for all enterprises. 

CSB Revision policy has been laid down in accordance with European Union and international recommendations and good practice.

Basically CSB statistical data are revised in accordance with the scheduled revision cycle and plan.

Within the context of industry statistics, the revisions of statistical data concern:

• Regular revisions of the published data, adding revised or more detailed information; revisions of the published data with the help of seasonal adjustment method.
• Long-term planned revisions of the published data in accordance with the changes in methodology or classifications.
• Unplanned revision (correction of errors) are carried out, if a respondent updates, supplements or corrects data on any of the previous periods, or if the methodology changes.

Vintage database has not introduced.

Revision policy is available on the CSB website: https://www.csp.gov.lv/en/media/5105/download?attachment

The same revision policy is applied nationally and in transmissions to Eurostat.

Regular (routine) revisions of Industrial Production Index (non-adjusted data) are done every quarter, when publishing data on the last month of the quarter, the data of previous two months are updated. Revision of sesonal adjausted data are done every month. Calendar adjusted figures, seasonally adjusted figures and trend figures are revised from January 2000 onwards every month. Regular revisions are quite small and usually do no affect totals. In databases metadata  users are informed of regular revisions. 

In 2022 for unadjusted data the Mean Absolute Revision (MAR) was 0.390 and Mean Revision (MR) was 0.022, for calendar adjusted data MAR was 0.391 and MR=0.023.

Long-term planned (major) revisions are conducted after amendments in legal acts, due to changes in the base year and classifications entail revisions. 

If there are unplanned revisions (correction of errors), the data are corrected as soon as possible and revised data have note consisting date and basic information of revision. Published indices may be revised if the corrections made to the calculations have significant influence on the total industrial production index. 

In case of changes in methodology or major changes in the data, the public will be informed in advance  of the event.

Benchmarking is not used.

Data on the volume indices of industrial production are obtained with the help of enterprise survey, building a threshold sample. Data are collected from the CSB monthly survey "1-r "Survey of industrial activity"".

Data are collected from economically active enterprises if their main or secondary activity in compliance with the Statistical Classification of Economic Activities (NACE Rev.2) is Mining and quarrying (Section B), Manufacturing (Section C), Electricity, gas, stream and air conditioning (Section D) excluding group 35.3 - "Steam and air conditioning supply" and if 20 and more persons are employed in industrial production. 

The sample additionally includes enterprises employing fewer than 20 people, to ensure that the data compiled on Divisions of NACE Rev. 2 (data at 2-digit level) cover at least 80 % of business structural statistics turnover in 2020.

Product coverage: all production of the reporting unit is included in the index.

Classification: NACE Rev.2 is used to classify enterprises by kind of economic activity. Reported production data are grouped into more than 160 classes according to the NACE Rev.2 class to which the enterprise belongs.

Monthly.

Data are collected with the monthly statistical questionnaire "1-r". Electronic questionnaires can be downloaded on the Internet website and filled in on-line (98% filled in on-line), also questionnaires can be send by e-mail. Non-responding units are followed up by telephone. 

CSB has the main program used for data entry, processing with automatic control and validation tools - ISDMS (Integrated Statistical Data Management System).
Standard MS Office professional software (MS Excel, MS Access) is used daily for the compilation of industrial statistics. 

Data are compared with the previous period and the same period of the previous year.

If some data are missed, for imputation are used Administrative data (VAT) from the State Revenue Service.

Industrial Production Index (henceforth IPI) is calculated using chain-linked method with the anual overlap technique, where calculation is based on the average previous year’s monthly volume of products manufactured (at constant prices) and value added accumulated by enterprises two years ago in breakdown by NACE sections, divisions, groups and classes is used as weights. The IPI is calculated by recalculating production output indicator at constant prices with the help of producer price indices. The weights are changed every year, thus changes in the structure of industry are taken into account. Average volume of output produced in 2015 is used as the base for the comparison.

The production value data are deflated with the producer price index of the corresponding NACE Rev.2 class.

Calendar and seasonal adjustment

A time series is a sequence of observations collected at regular time intervals, for example, a monthly time series. It characterises indicator changes or development thereof.  Seasonality and calendar effects are present in a large number of economic time series.

Seasonality or seasonal fluctuations of time series mean those movements, which recur with similar intensity in the same season each year. For example, each year Christmas shopping time can be observed in time series reflecting retail sales statistics. Change of seasons, social habits and influence of institutional factors are among the main causes of seasonality.

The calendar effects cover influence of calendar on time series. It is impact left by differing number of working days (or Mondays, Tuesdays and other days of the week) in months on changes of indicator. For example, number of working days differing among the months may affect goods produced time series.

When the time series are influenced by seasonality or calendar effects, it may be difficult to get clear understanding on indicator changes over the time.  Seasonal adjustment is made to eliminate seasonal fluctuations and calendar effects in time series.

As a result seasonally adjusted time series, from which seasonality and calendar effects have been removed, are produced. It means that seasonally adjusted time series provide an estimate for what is “new” in the series, for example turning points in trends, business cycle or irregular component.  Moreover seasonal adjustment results in calendar adjusted time series, in which calendar effects or varying number of working days in months has been eliminated. Specifics of seasonally adjusted statistics allows improving data comparability over time:

• Seasonally adjusted time series do not contain seasonal fluctuations and calendar effects, thus it is possible to compare, for example, data on the current month with the previous month's data.
• Calendar adjusted time series are not influenced by calendar effects and are used to compare, for example, statistics on current month with the data on corresponding month of the previous year.

The seasonal adjustment is made taking into account seasonal adjustment guidelines developed by the European Statistical System.

It must be taken into account that in accordance with current seasonal adjustment methodology, when data on the new period are added, the data on previous period are recalculated; therefore information on previous periods in the adjusted time series may change each month.

There are no known economic outliers in the data.

Automatic outlier detection for the last year period using default critical value.

There is no consistency of different agregation levels, because time series are seasonally adjusted directly. 

Not applicable.