Agency for statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina 

Business Statistics Sector – Department for Industry and Construction Statistics

Zelenih beretki 26, 71 000 - Sarajevo

The Index (volume) of Production in Construction (IPC) is calculated based on the number of actual hours worked on construction sites. IPC is published for the level of total construction – Section F according to KD BiH 2010 (=NACE Rev.2), and it consists of the building construction indices and of the civil engineering indices.  Data are collected through a reporting method, by using Quarterly Report on Construction Activity (K KPS GRAĐ-21).

• Classification of Economic Activities of BiH 2010 (KD BiH 2010) for enterprises and local units (fully harmonized with all levels of NACE Rev.2).

• Classification of Types of Constructions in BiH (KVGO BiH) which is identical to Classification of Types of Constructions - CC

It covers the construction-related economic activities listed in section F - Construction according to Classification of Economic Activities (KD BiH 2010 harmonized with NACE Rev.2) and divisions F41 – Building Construction, F42- Civil engineering and F43 – Specialized construction activities.  The breakdown into building and civil engineering required for certain indicator is based on the CC classification (Classification of Types of Constructions). The cut-off sample has been selected based on activity classification (according to NACE Rev.2). Sample of enterprises and KAUs is chosen by using a number of employees (20 and more employees).  

The aim of IPC is to measure changes in the volume of output in regular intervals, which implies the measurement of volume trends in value added through a given reference period.  IPC has been calculated by using actual hours worked on construction sites, covering all types of construction works (new constructions and reconstructions, repairs and maintenance), and all types of constructions according to CC classification (residential, non-residential, transport, pipelines, communication and electricity lines; complex construction of industrial sites; other civil engineering).  Total hours worked on construction sites include the hours of work done by employees directly involved in the production process, that is, construction, including overtime hours, while the hours of work of the administration and all paid non-working days (such as holidays, sick leave, etc.) are excluded.  Currently, the productivity factor is not applied to the data series on hours worked. Data are collected on a quarterly basis.

Detailed definitions of indicators are described in the new European Business Statistics (EBS) Regulation no. 2019/2152 and Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2020/1197 (Variable 140101 - Production (volume)) as well as in the EBS Manual 2021.  

Theoretical target of the production volume index:

• In the view of business cycle statistics, own output should be measured. The terms ‘production’ or ‘output’ in the sense of business cycle statistics do not include inputs from other units.
• The objective of the production volume index is therefore to measure changes in the volume of value added at close and regular intervals.
• The changes in volume of value added measured should in general approximate the value added measured by the National Accounts concepts of value added

Indices for the Building construction and Civil engineering works for Bosnia and Herzegovina are currently calculated by using hours worked, while the indices for total construction activity are calculated indirectly from these two indices by using Laspeyres’ formula. Due to fact that quarterly value added data are not available, a comparison of annual value added data and the value of construction works done has been prepared and it’s concluded that these two values have almost the same trend. Therefore, quarterly values of construction works done for building constructions and civil engineering works are used for the calculation of total IPC for BiH as a composite index.  

Reporting units are enterprises and LKAUs dealing with construction activities in Section F – Construction, divisions F41, F42 and F43 according to KD BiH 2010 (NACE Rev.2). LKAUs are used in case when the enterprise’s principal activity falls outside the NACE Rev.2 section F. This survey does not cover the reporting units (enterprises and LKAUs) outside the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Observation units coincide with reporting units.

The survey on IPC (K KPS GRAĐ-21) is based on the cut-off sample by using the number of employees variable (20 and more employees). Target population covers all active enterprises from section F according to NACE Rev.2 (note: entrepreneurs are not included in target nor frame population) based on data available from the Statistical Business Register of BiH. In 2022, there were 421 enterprises selected into the sample.  

The BiH territory (includes two entities – the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Republika Srpska and the Brčko District). 

Data on physical volume Indices of Construction Production for BiH have been made (by using a single methodology) and published since the first quarter of 2005 for total Construction, Building Construction and Civil engineering works. Data are published in a quarterly periodicity. They are available as gross indices, calendar and seasonally adjusted indices, and trend-cycle indices.

The base period is the average of the previous year. Weights are updated on an annual basis by using the chain-linking method. The reference year is also the previous year (currently, for the calculation of indices in 2022 reference year is 2021). Indices are published on the previous quarter, on the average of the previous year (chain indices) and recalculated to a common base year (2015=100) with chain linking. 

Units of measure are indices and percentage changes (%).

Data are collected in quarterly periodicity. The reference period of this report is 2022. 

-          Law on Statistics of BiH (Official Gazette of BiH No. 26/04 and 42/04), as well as laws on statistics of the entity statistical institutions. Agency for statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina is responsible for data collection, data processing and data publishing for the state level (BiH level) as well as for implementation of methodologies in all three statistical institutions in BiH in a unique way;

• Multi-annual statistical work programs for BiH (2021 – 2024) and Annual work plans of BiH;
• Strategy for the development of statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina 2030

Data delivery/sharing between the Institutes of Statistics from the entities (Republic of Srpska Institute for Statistics and the Institute of Statistics of the Federation of BiH) and the Agency for Statistics of BiH is regulated by Laws on statistics as well as Agreement on data sharing between all three statistical institutions;

• Data sharing to external users -  state institutions in the country is regulated by Law on Statistics and other laws which regulate the work of state institutions (for example Directorate for Economic Planning of BiH, Ministry of Finance of BiH; Central Bank of BiH, etc.).
• Statistical Office of the European Union (Eurostat);
• External users – international organizations like UN Statistics Division (UNSD), International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank (WB), etc. based on their requests and/or agreements signed;

Other users (students, academic community, individual users, etc. in accordance with special procedures defined by the Agency together with the individual agreements signed).

Confidentiality of statistical data has been regulated by law, and personnel conducting statistical surveys are obliged, under the same legislation, to protect confidentiality.  The Law on Statistics of BiH (Official Gazette of BIH 26/04 and 42/04 - Chapter XI - Articles 23-29) sets forth the principle of confidentiality as one of the main principles.  The Agency of Statistics of BiH distributes statistics in accordance with the principles of the European Statistics Code of Practice, and especially with the principle of statistical confidentiality

The document titled “Book of Rules on Protection of Statistical Data in the Agency for Statistics” contains the procedure to secure confidentiality during data gathering, processing and dissemination - which includes protocols securing individual data to which access is allowed, rules defining confidential cells in the output tables and procedures for detection and prevention of subsequent disclosures, as well access to micro-data for the survey purposes. Confidential data are not published

The release calendar for Statistical Press Releases in BiH is published in advance for the entire year and it contains detailed information about all publications planned to be published. In December every year, the Agency for Statistics of BIH publishes on a website a calendar with accurate dates and time of publication of statistics for the next year.  The calendar is published on the website in four language versions (Bosnian, Croatian, Serbian and English languages) and in pdf format. IPC: T+50 days after the end of the reference quarter for the previous (reference) quarter (for example, 20^th May for the 1^st quarter as reference quarter).

Release calendar for Statistical Press Releases in BiH for 2022 is available on the following link: http://bhas.gov.ba/Calendar/?lang=en

All publications are published in accordance with the defined release calendar on exactly specified date, at 11 o’clock, on the Agency’s website.  If publishing of the press release will be delayed, the relevant information shall be posted on the website and a new date/time shall be published.  All publications intended for users are available in 4 languages, that is, 3 local languages plus English version.  Users shall not have access to new data prior to their official publication on the Agency’s website, nor is it possible for them to be granted access to data earlier. 
The principle that all users should have equal access to statistical data on an unbiased base is stipulated in Article 8, paragraph (2), subparagraph h) and Article 19, paragraph (2) of the Law on Statistics of BiH, and the Agency for statistics of BiH strictly complies with it in practice

Index of Production in Construction for BiH is disseminated on a quarterly basis

Press releases of the IPC are published on the T+50 days after the end of the reference quarter for the previous quarter, in accordance with the defined date of publishing in the Release calendar, at 11 o’clock, on the Agency’s website: www.bhas.gov.ba in pdf format, Excel format and also as a hard copy, upon request. 

 -  Index of Production in Construction in Bosnia and Herzegovina for the quarter ___ of the current year. 

https://bhas.gov.ba/data/Publikacije/Saopstenja/2023/CON_04_2022_Q4_1_BS.pdf

-  BiH in figures – section “Construction”

https://bhas.gov.ba/data/Publikacije/Bilteni/2023/NUM_00_2022_TB_1_EN.pdf

The online database in Excel format is available at the following link: http://bhas.gov.ba/data/Publikacije/VremenskeSerije/CON_01.xls 

Micro-data are not disseminated and users have no access to them

Data are transmitted to Eurostat which also publishes data for Bosnia and Herzegovina on its website

European Business Statistics Manual (2021) contains all recommendations pertaining to the compilation of short-term statistical data, including IPC: 

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/3859598/12453409/KS-GQ-21-001-EN-N.pdf/f67631e8-c728-e650-d777-de0d9079bf18?t=1614247963543

Also, a detailed IPC-related detailed methodological document prepared by the Eurostat Task Force is also used for the IPC compilation:

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/3859598/5917069/KS-RA-11-018-EN.PDF/9bb02f90-7032-4e00-b919-40c831a38107?version=1.0

New EBS Regulation no. 2019/2152 is used as relevant for the production of IPC for Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Development of the Quality Report is in progress and a draft version is available internally on the intranet site of the Agency

Agency for statistics of BiH (BHAS) follows the recommendations for quality management provided in the European Statistics Code of Practice (CoP) and implements the guidelines provided in the European Statistics System Quality Assurance Framework (QAF).  More details about quality assurance and all procedures describing the BHAS’s quality policy are contained in the document:  BHAS Quality management policy and mechanisms available at website:

https://bhas.gov.ba/Content/Read/92?title=Kvalitet  

The quality of data corresponds to the requirements of the principles of relevance, accuracy, timeliness and availability, and comparability.  IPC is a very important indicator used in BiH and beyond.  The indices pertain to the entire BiH territory and are produced for the level – Total, construction building and civil engineering, in accordance with the KVGO BIH (EU CC).  The indices are based on reliable data.  All data are thoroughly analyzed and the quality of the collected data is verified, comparing them with those from the previous periods and with other sources of data (from other surveys).  All data, from the first quarter of 2005 onwards, are comparable and there is no disruption in the series

Key users of the survey in statistics data are:

• International main users: Eurostat, IMF, UN/UNECE, OECD, WB
• National main users: Directorate for Economic Planning of BiH with the Council of Ministers of BiH, Foreign Trade Chamber of BiH, Central Bank of BiH, Ministry of Finance of BiH, other bodies and institutions of the Government
• Other users: business entities – enterprises, associations of employers, researchers and students, media and the general public.

Internally, these data are used for the National Account statistics for the production of the Gross Domestic Product and in the Structural and Short-term Business Statistics

The Agency for Statistics of BiH is conducting a user satisfaction survey, carried out in 2020. This survey is conducted in 3-annual periodicity.  A total of 242 users were asked to respond to the questionnaire and 107 users provided their responses. Most interviewees visit the internet site and use the Agency’s statistical data occasionally (37.0%) or monthly (24.0%), at the same time, our website is daily visited by 7.0% of interviewees. Most interviewees are interested in the statistical field of population statistics (64.0%), employment and salaries (56.0%). A report on the survey conducted is posted on the Agency’s website and is available to the users:

https://bhas.gov.ba/data/Dokumenti/Kvalitet/AZK2020_BS.pdf

Users’ main needs for data pertaining to the website notification format.  Namely, for the purpose of easier data management and analysis, the pdf format of the notification does not suit the users’ needs and efforts are being made for Excel tables to also be posted.

The construction production index in BiH is an important primary source of data to a large number of relevant authorities which are decision-makers for the public and private sector.  For example:

• enables the BiH authorities to prepare themselves for bilateral and multilateral negotiations within trade agreements,

• forms an important source of information for the Balance of Payments and National Accounts statistics and for economics studies,

• helps enterprises to conduct the market survey and develop their business strategy

The international and national requirements of the time series are fulfilled. Indices for buildings, civil engineering works and total are available on a quarterly basis for national purposes and delivered to Eurostat. It is in accordance with the requirements of EBS Regulation No 2019/2152.

Considering a very high rate of responses, about 98%, overall accuracy is very good.  For all reporting units included in the sample, data must be completed before data compilation (reporting units are re-called or visited and, if even after re-calling it is not possible to obtain data from them, imputation shall be applied).  The exclusion of small enterprises shall not lead to an important bias in the series

Not relevant. Quantifying sampling errors is not possible because the sample is not based on random sampling. The comprehensive survey is performed on a cut-off census (included are enterprises and parts thereof employing 20 or more persons). For enterprises with less than 20 employees' data are not collected and the sampling procedure is not applied

This survey is compulsory and the response rate is very high, almost 98%. All data are available according to deadlines. There is a small number of businesses (small businesses mainly), approximately 2% of them, which do not provide their answers (unit non-response). In the case of unit non-response, the following imputation methods shall be applied:  based on data from the previous year or based on data on the production trend of the most similar units.  In the case of non-response to certain items in the questionnaire, reporting units shall be contacted by phone, until responses are obtained. A sample of a large number of small businesses (less than 20 employees) was not applied because of the reporting units’ excessive workload and the high costs of the survey conducting. Microdata is checked automatically during the data entry into the IT application by applying numerical and logical checking controls as well as comparing data with data provided for the previous quarter). For the Entity territories, data are controlled by the Entity Institute/Office for Statistics, while for the territory of the Brčko District, the control is performed by the Agency for Statistics of BiH. For the aggregated data, checking is done by different persons, firstly by persons directly involved in the calculation of indices and then by their head responsible for IPC. A lot of tables are prepared in Excel every quarter to check the data for each particular Entity and then to check the data/indices calculated for the BiH level.

The provisional quarterly indicators are transmitted to Eurostat in the required form (for total production, buildings and civil engineering). The legal deadline is 60 days following the reporting period (by countries obliged to prepare the index on a quarterly basis). Data collection has been done at a quarterly frequency. Reporting units have the deadline for data delivery 20^th of the month for the previous (reference) quarter. Eventually, two more days are available for re-calling of reporting units which didn’t deliver the data in order to get the data from all surveyed reporting units. The deadline for data publishing is T+50 days (for the level of BiH and the Brčko District) for the Preliminary results. 

There is no difference between the announced and actual date of the publication (according to the Release Calendar).  All 4 press releases of the quarterly surveys on IPC are published on the date of publication as foreseen in the Release Calendar

Considering that the IPC results are published in accordance with the EBS Regulation 2019/2152, the results are comparable with those of other countries (EU primarily) which apply these regulations, methodology, and relevant classifications

The BiH IPC has been calculated and published since 2005, quarterly. The IPC time series are calculated under a single methodology and are comparable and free of any break in series

All comparisons of data with those from other surveys are made on an ad-hoc basis and are not available to users.  Comparisons are made with other construction statistics surveys (annual survey in construction production, issued building permits, and annual SBS survey for the construction section).  

Data are internally comparable concerning the overall available time series data. Data coherence is ensured by applying the single compilation method (calculation) and the weighting system

Currently, data on the Index of Production in Construction are collected by using paper questionnaires which requires a lot of money and human resources. Data are collected by three statistical institutions: Republic of Srpska Institute of Statistics for the territory of Republika Srpska, Federal Institute of Statistics of FBIH for the territory of Federation of BIH and the Agency for Statistics of BiH for the Brcko District of BiH territory. Approximately, 5 people are involved in the data collection process and data compilation process on an annual basis (40% of their work time). In addition, one IT expert per institution is responsible for the development and maintenance of IT application (30% of their working time). All three statistical institutions have very high costs of printing the questionnaires, postal and telephone costs. The response burden is not very high, with approximately 15 minutes for fulfilling the questionnaires per respondent

There is no adopted or clearly defined revision policy except in the case of an error, wherein the corrected data shall be marked as "corrected data" and accompanied by an explanation of the reasons for the data correction to all users This is published in the official publication as well as on the web site of the Agency, and sent to Eurostat.

Usually, big revisions are done in a way that representatives of all three statistical institutions have to discuss together and agree on new proposed Statistical Standards/methodologies which will require data revision. Main changes in the methodology shall be published on the Agency’s website.  All methodology changes are thoroughly explained in the Press release, in the section Methodological Notes. Corrections of Press releases resulting from errors have been published automatically by releasing a revised/corrected Press release including a note and explanation to users concerning the reason for the revision/correction.  Data on IPC are published every quarter as preliminary data, including a note that, when publishing the data for the next quarter, preliminary data from the previous quarter shall become final.  Data on IPC are published 50 days after the end of the reference quarter (on 20^th May, 20^th August, etc.). Regarding the level of revision, gross (unadjusted) and calendar-adjusted indices are revised rarely with minor changes in the level of indices in the last 20 periods. Seasonally adjusted indices are regularly quarterly revised due to seasonal effects with no significant influence on the level of revision. The Agency for statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina doesn't calculate quantitative indicators of revisions yet.   

Mean Revision (MR) and Mean Absolute Revision (MAR) are used as revision indicators. They are calculated on year-on-year growth rates for working-day adjusted data. The calculated values for the last 20 quarters of quarterly IPC are: MR= 0.157 and MAR=-0.080. 

Quarterly statistical survey, by mail, using the K KPS GRAĐ-21 questionnaire

Quarterly

IPC data for BiH are collected through the statistical survey K KPS GRAĐ - 21 conducted by mail and using hard-copy questionnaires.  Data are collected through the cantonal/regional offices of the Entities – for the Entity level and through the Brčko District Branch Office of the Agency for statistics of BiH for the territory of the Brčko District

The Entity Institutes/Offices for Statistics perform entry and validation of data for their Entity territory, while the Agency performs that for the territory of the Brčko District. The Entity Institutes/Offices provide the Agency with all data required for the compilation of IPC data at the BiH level, in agreed formats. Data cross-checking controls are applied. If “Suspicious” data are found, they are sent back to the Entity statistical institutions for checking and verification. The Entity Institutes/Offices for Statistics recheck data and, if required, a phone call-back procedure is applied or pays a visit to them, if it is necessary.  This is a standard procedure that has been applied for a long period of time, enabling the Construction Statistics departments to obtain data of good quality.  Data validation is done automatically by applying predefined data controls through IT applications. All verifications are performed through the IT application for Construction.  For the data transmission to Eurostat, a file format has been created by using a special IT tool. A new SDMX-ML format is used for data transmission to Eurostat. No validation controls and checking are applied to this file because the national validation rules have already been applied.

Data for IPC compilation are collected by using the Quarterly report K KPS GRAĐ-21 based on the cut-off sample (enterprises and KAUs with 20 or more employees). Random sampling is not applied to enterprises with less than 20 employees, nor is any assessment made concerning them. Indices for Building construction and Civil engineering are calculated by correlating the hours worked in the current quarter and the previous year’s average (base year). A total index has been calculated by indirect aggregation of already calculated indices for Building constructions and Civil engineering by applying the Laspeyres formula.  The weights are defined based on the share of values of the completed Building constructions and Civil engineering works in the total value of the completed construction works in the current quarter. Values of the completed construction works in every quarter (the reference one) are used as the weights, considering that there are no available data on value-added for section F - Construction on a quarterly basis. This decision has been made on the basis of analysis performed by using annual data on value-added from the SBS survey and annual completed construction works values. It has been concluded that the annual values of the completed construction work for Building construction and Civil engineering works and their annual added value follow the same structure. It’s assumed that quarterly values of value added for Building construction and Civil engineering follows the same structure of value of performed construction works.  Therefore, it is decided that the values of the completed works are to be used as the added value approximations at the quarterly level. Currently, IPC is not adjusted for the productivity factor.

Seasonal adjustment of gross IPCs has been done by using an automated model through software JDemetra + 2.2.3 and TRAMO/SEATS methods (regression method), which is based on the ARIMA models, and indices are published as gross, seasonally and calendar-adjusted and trend indices. The direct method is used in the Entity statistical institutes while for the BiH level, adjusted indices from the entities are used and multiplied with weights of the Entities in total BiH.

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