Population projections (proj)

Reference Metadata in Euro SDMX Metadata Structure (ESMS)

Compiling agency: Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.


Eurostat metadata
Reference metadata
1. Contact
2. Metadata update
3. Statistical presentation
4. Unit of measure
5. Reference Period
6. Institutional Mandate
7. Confidentiality
8. Release policy
9. Frequency of dissemination
10. Accessibility and clarity
11. Quality management
12. Relevance
13. Accuracy
14. Timeliness and punctuality
15. Coherence and comparability
16. Cost and Burden
17. Data revision
18. Statistical processing
19. Comment
Related Metadata
Annexes (including footnotes)



For any question on data and metadata, please contact: EUROPEAN STATISTICAL DATA SUPPORT

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1. Contact Top
1.1. Contact organisation

Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

1.2. Contact organisation unit

Unit F2: Population and migration.

1.5. Contact mail address

Eurostat - Office statistique de l’Union européenne

5, rue Alphone Weicker

L-2721 Luxembourg


2. Metadata update Top
2.1. Metadata last certified 20/05/2021
2.2. Metadata last posted 20/05/2021
2.3. Metadata last update 20/05/2021


3. Statistical presentation Top
3.1. Data description

EUROPOP2019 are the latest Eurostat population projections produced at national and subnational levels for 31 countries: all 27 European Union (EU) Member States and four European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries, covering the time horizon from 2019 to 2100.

Population projections are 'what-if scenario' that aim to show the hypothetically developments of the population size and its structure based on a sets of assumptions for fertility, mortality and net migration; they are presented for a long time period that covers more than a half-century (50 years).

The datasets at national level are composed by the baseline population projections and five sensitivity tests, namely:

  • no migration – it is assumed that the net migration is set to zero in each year of the entire horizon of projections;
  • lower migration – it is assumed that the net migration is 33% lower than in the baseline assumptions, in each year of the entire horizon of projections;
  • higher migration – it is assumed that the net migration is 33% higher than in the baseline assumptions, in each year of the entire horizon of projections;
  • lower fertility - it is assumed that the fertility rates are lower 20% than in the baseline assumptions, in each year of the entire horizon of projections;
  • lower mortality - it is assumed that the mortality rates are decreased such that the life expectancy at birth will increase of about two years by 2070 when compared with the baseline assumptions.

Data are available by single year time interval, as follows:

  • Projected population on 1 January by age and sex;
  • Assumptions on future age-specific fertility rates, probabilities of dying and net migration levels;
  • Projected life expectancy by age (in completed years) and sex.

Moreover, the demographic balances and indicators are available for the baseline projections and the five sensitive variants:

  • Total numbers of the projected live births and deaths;
  • Projected population structure indicators: proportions of broad age groups in total population, age dependency ratios and median ages of the population (for each sex component).

The dataset at regional level is composed by the baseline population projections and covers all 1169 regions classified as NUTS level 3 corresponding to the NUTS-2016 classification (the Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) and the 47 Statistical Regions (SR) agreed between European Commission and EFTA countries. Statistical regions are defined according to principles similar to those used in the establishment of the NUTS classification.

For all 1216 regions NUTS-3 level, data are available by single year time interval as follows:

  • Projected population on 1 January by age and sex;
  • Assumptions on future age-specific fertility rates, probabilities of dying and net migration levels;
  • Projected deaths by age and sex;
  • Projected life expectancy by age (reached during the year) and sex, which is computed according to the method described in the Technical note - Alternative life table (with annex)

In addition to the baseline projections, datasets on projected population at regional level are available for two sensitivity tests:

  • no migration - it is assumed that migration is zero for both international and internal components in each year of the entire horizon of projections;
  • no inter-regional migration - it is assumed that only internal migration is zero in each year of the entire horizon of projections.

Moreover, the demographic balances and indicators are available for the baseline projections and the two sensitive variants:

  • Total numbers of the projected live births by sex and deaths;
  • Projected population structure indicators: proportions of broad age groups in total population, age dependency ratios and median ages of the population (for each sex component).
3.2. Classification system

The territorial breakdown of the countries is according to the (EU) Regulation No 1260/2013 on European demographic statistics.

The regional breakdown of the EU27 countries is according to the Commission Regulation (EU) 2016/2066 related to the establishment of a common classification of territorial units for statistics (NUTS), known as NUTS-2016 classification. For EFTA countries, the regional breakdown corresponds to Statistical Regions, which are defined according to principles similar to those used in the establishment of the NUTS classification.

3.3. Coverage - sector

Demography.

3.4. Statistical concepts and definitions

Base population on 1 January 2019 is the population of the country as reported in the annual demographic statistics data collection run by Eurostat.

Age-specific fertility rate is defined as the ratio between the number of live births occurring to women between ages x and x+1 and the number of person-years lived by women between ages x and x+1, over one calendar year.

Probability of dying is defined as the ratio between the number of persons who reached the exact age x and the number among them who did not reached the age x+1, over one calendar year.

The projected life expectancy by age in completed years is derived from the life expectancy as from the period-cohort life table (computed using the assumed probabilities of dying) by applying an estimated age-specific gap between these two measures of life expectancy. The projected life expectancy by age in completed years is provided for the convenience of the users, but it is not the outcome of a regular computation of a life table and it represent only an approximated measure of a life expectancy computed on age-period mortality data. More information in the Technical Notes.

Median age is defined as the age x such that exactly one half of the population is older than x and the other half is younger than x.

Proportion of population in each of the main demographic age groups is the number of - respectively - children (0–14 years), young persons (0-19 years), two age groups for persons in the working-age (15–64 years, and 20-64 years ), elderly (65 years and over) and oldest-old persons (80 years and over) in the total population.

Young-age-dependency ratio - two ratios are available according to the age groups used to classify the persons as 'young' and in the 'working-age':

1) the young-age-dependency ratio - defined as the ratio between the number of persons aged 0-14 over the number of working-age persons (15-64 years);

2) the young-age-dependency ratio - defined as the ratio between the number of persons aged 0-19 over the number of working-age persons (20-64 years);

Old-age-dependency ratio - two ratios are available according to the age group used to define the persons in the 'working-age':

1) the old-age-dependency ratio - defined as the ratio between the number of persons aged 65 years and more over the number of working-age persons (15-64 years);

2) the old-age-dependency ratio - defined as the ratio between the number of persons aged 65 years and more over the number of working-age persons (20-64 years);

Total age-dependency ratio is defined as the sum of young- and old- age dependency ratios, based on the common age group used to define the persons in the 'working age'.

3.5. Statistical unit

The statistical unit varies according to the data type as follows:

  • Person - for data referring to the projected population and net migration;
  • Number of events - for data referring to the projected number of live births and deaths;
3.6. Statistical population

Statistical population is the projected total population on 1st January as defined in 3.4. Statistical concepts and definitions.

3.7. Reference area

EU Members States and EFTA countries (Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland)

3.8. Coverage - Time

From year 2019 to 2100.

3.9. Base period

1 January 2019.


4. Unit of measure Top

The specific measurement units vary depending on the population projections tables as follows:

  • Person - for all data on projected population and migration;
  • Number - for data on vital events (live births and deaths); and
  • Years - for data on life expectancy and median age.


5. Reference Period Top

The time period covered is from 2019 to 2100.


6. Institutional Mandate Top
6.1. Institutional Mandate - legal acts and other agreements

Not applicable.

6.2. Institutional Mandate - data sharing

Not applicable.


7. Confidentiality Top
7.1. Confidentiality - policy

Not applicable.

7.2. Confidentiality - data treatment

Not applicable.


8. Release policy Top
8.1. Release calendar

April 2020: release of baseline projections and 'no migration' sensitivity test.

July 2020: release of the lower migration, higher migration, lower fertility and lower mortality sensitivity tests.

January-March 2021: release of the baseline regional population projections.

8.2. Release calendar access

Not applicable.

8.3. Release policy - user access

Not applicable.


9. Frequency of dissemination Top

Not applicable.


10. Accessibility and clarity Top
10.1. Dissemination format - News release

Not applicable.

10.2. Dissemination format - Publications

Statistics Explained article on Eurostat website

10.3. Dissemination format - online database

Eurostat website under the folder 'Population projections' of the 'Population and social conditions" domain:

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/population-demography-migration-projections/population-projections-data

10.4. Dissemination format - microdata access

Not applicable.

10.5. Dissemination format - other

Additional data on immigration and emigration can be provided upon request by contacting: ESTAT-Pop-Projections@ec.europa.eu

10.6. Documentation on methodology

Documentation on methodology available in annexes.

Additional methodological questions can be addressed to: ESTAT-Pop-Projections@ec.europa.eu

10.7. Quality management - documentation

Not applicable.


11. Quality management Top
11.1. Quality assurance

Not applicable.

11.2. Quality management - assessment

Not applicable.


12. Relevance Top
12.1. Relevance - User Needs

Population projections help the public, statisticians and policymakers understand population dynamics. They contribute to informed debates on demographic and societal changes.

12.2. Relevance - User Satisfaction

Not applicable.

12.3. Completeness

Not applicable.


13. Accuracy Top
13.1. Accuracy - overall

Not applicable.

13.2. Sampling error

Not applicable.

13.3. Non-sampling error

Not applicable.


14. Timeliness and punctuality Top
14.1. Timeliness

Not applicable.

14.2. Punctuality

Not applicable.


15. Coherence and comparability Top
15.1. Comparability - geographical

Not applicable.

15.2. Comparability - over time

See annexes

15.3. Coherence - cross domain

Not applicable.

15.4. Coherence - internal

Not applicable.


16. Cost and Burden Top

Not applicable.


17. Data revision Top
17.1. Data revision - policy

Not applicable.

17.2. Data revision - practice

Not applicable.


18. Statistical processing Top
18.1. Source data

Eurostat database.

18.2. Frequency of data collection

Not applicable.

18.3. Data collection

Not applicable.

18.4. Data validation

Not applicable.

18.5. Data compilation

Not applicable.

18.6. Adjustment

Not applicable.


19. Comment Top

Not applicable.


Related metadata Top


Annexes Top
Technical note - EUROPOP2019 methodology
Annex 1 - ASFR 2016-2018 smoothed
Annex 2 - TFR trends extrapolation
Annex 3 - TFR assumptions and their components
Annex 4 - TFR by group of countries
Annex 5 - ASFR assumptions
Annex 6 - qx 2016-2018 smoothed
Annex 7 - qx assumptions
Annex 8 - e0 trends
Annex 9 - e0 by group of countries
Annex 10 - ox by sex and destination
Annex 11 - Emigration levels until midterm
Annex 12 - Scatterplots past median age and CER
Annex 13 - ox assumptions
Annex 14 - Non-EU immigration without WAFM until midterm
Annex 15 - Share male and female past non-EU imm
Annex 16 - Countries shares of EU immigration by sex and age
Annex 17 - Projections p.pdf
Annex 18 - Projections b
Annex 19 - Projections d
Annex 20 - Projections n.pdf
Annex 21 - Projections OADR
Annex 22 - Population pyramids at selected years
Technical note - Alternative life table (with annex)
Technical note - Correction of provisional nowcast data
Summary methodology of the 2018-based population projections (EUROPOP2018)
Summary methodology of the 2015-based population projections
Technical note - Methodology of the breakdown of the Eurostat Population Projections 2019-based (EUROPOP2019) by NUTS 3 region