Population projections (proj)

Reference Metadata in Euro SDMX Metadata Structure (ESMS)

Compiling agency: Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

Eurostat metadata
Reference metadata
1. Contact
2. Metadata update
3. Statistical presentation
4. Unit of measure
5. Reference Period
6. Institutional Mandate
7. Confidentiality
8. Release policy
9. Frequency of dissemination
10. Accessibility and clarity
11. Quality management
12. Relevance
13. Accuracy
14. Timeliness and punctuality
15. Coherence and comparability
16. Cost and Burden
17. Data revision
18. Statistical processing
19. Comment
Related Metadata
Annexes (including footnotes)

For any question on data and metadata, please contact: EUROPEAN STATISTICAL DATA SUPPORT


1. Contact Top
1.1. Contact organisation

Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

1.2. Contact organisation unit

Unit F2: Population and migration.

1.5. Contact mail address

Eurostat - Office statistique de l’Union européenne

5, rue Alphone Weicker

L-2721 Luxembourg

2. Metadata update Top
2.1. Metadata last certified 11/07/2017
2.2. Metadata last posted 11/07/2017
2.3. Metadata last update 11/07/2017

3. Statistical presentation Top
3.1. Data description

The datasets are composed by baseline population projections and the following sensitivity tests:

•           Lower fertility;

•           Lower mortality;

•           Higher migration;

•           Lower migration;

•           No migration.

For each of them, data is available as follows:

•           Projected population on 1 January by age and sex, and by single year time interval;

•           Assumptions on future age-specific fertility rates, age-specific mortality rates and international net migration levels (including statistical adjustment);

•           Corresponding approximated values of the life expectancy by age and sex.

Moreover, for the baseline projections, the following demographic balances and indicators are available:

•           Total numbers of the projected live births and deaths;

•           Projected population structure indicators: proportions of broad age groups in total population, age dependency ratios and median age of the population.

The time horizon covered is:

•           From 2015 to 2081 for the projected population; and

•           From 2015 to 2080 for the assumptions dataset.

3.2. Classification system

The territorial breakdown of the countries is according to the (EU) Regulation No 1260/2013 on European demographic statistics.

3.3. Coverage - sector


3.4. Statistical concepts and definitions

Base population on 1 January2015 is the population of the country as reported in the annual demographic statistics data collection run by Eurostat.

Age-specific fertility rate is defined as the ratio between the number of live births occurring to women between ages x and x+1 and the number of person-years lived by women between ages x and x+1, over one calendar year.

Age-specific mortality rate is defined as the ratio between the number of deaths between ages x and x+1 and the number of person-years lived in the age interval x and x+1, over one calendar year.

Life expectancy at age x is the average number of additional years of life that a survivor to age x will live beyond the age x, if subjected to the assumed mortality conditions.

Median age is defined as the age 'x' such that exactly one half of the population is older than 'x' and the other half is younger than 'x'.

Proportion of population in each of the main demographic age groups is the number of - respectively - children (0–14 years), persons in working-age (15–64 years), elderly (65 years and over) and oldest-old persons (80 years and over) in the total population.

Young-age-dependency ratio is defined as the ratio between the number of persons aged 0-14 over the number of working-age persons (15-64 years).

Old-age-dependency ratio is defined as the ratio between the number of persons aged 65 and more over the number of working-age persons (15-64 years).

Total age-dependency ratio is defined as the sum of young- and old- age dependency ratios.

3.5. Statistical unit

The statistical unit varies according to the data type as follows:

•           Persons - for data referring to the projected population;

•           Number of events - for data referring to the projected number of live births, deaths and international net migration (including statistical adjustment); and

•           Rates – for age-specific fertility and age-specific mortality rates.

3.6. Statistical population

Statistical population is the projected total population on 1st January as defined in 3.4. Statistical concepts and definitions.

3.7. Reference area

EU-28 Member States: Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Croatia, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Hungary, Malta, Netherlands, Austria, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Finland, Sweden and the United Kingdom.

EFTA country: Norway.

3.8. Coverage - Time

From year 2015 to 2081.

3.9. Base period

1 January 2015.

4. Unit of measure Top

The specific measurement units vary depending on the population projections tables as follows:

•           Persons - for all data on projected population and migration; and

•           Years - for data on approximated life expectancy and median age.

5. Reference Period Top

The time period covered is from 2015 to 2080/2081.

6. Institutional Mandate Top
6.1. Institutional Mandate - legal acts and other agreements

The population projections 2015 at national level were computed upon invitation of the 3387th Council meeting of the Economic and Financial Affairs, held on 12 May 2015 in Brussels.

6.2. Institutional Mandate - data sharing

Not applicable.

7. Confidentiality Top
7.1. Confidentiality - policy

Not applicable.

7.2. Confidentiality - data treatment

Not applicable.

8. Release policy Top
8.1. Release calendar

February 2017: release of the baseline projections.

June 2017: release of the sensitivity tests.

8.2. Release calendar access

Not applicable.

8.3. Release policy - user access

Additional data may be provided upon request by contacting: ESTAT-Pop-Projections@ec.europa.eu

9. Frequency of dissemination Top

Not applicable.

10. Accessibility and clarity Top
10.1. Dissemination format - News release

Not applicable.

10.2. Dissemination format - Publications

Not applicable.

10.3. Dissemination format - online database

Eurostat website under the folder 'Population projections' of the 'Population and social conditions" domain.

10.4. Dissemination format - microdata access

Not applicable.

10.5. Dissemination format - other

Not applicable.

10.6. Documentation on methodology

Documentation on methodology available in annexes.

Additional methodological questions can be addressed to: ESTAT-Pop-Projections@ec.europa.eu

Summary methodology of the 2015-based population projections
Comparison of the results from the AWG sensitivity tests on the 2015-based population projections
Methodology for migration assumptions in the 2015-based population projections
10.7. Quality management - documentation

Not applicable.

11. Quality management Top
11.1. Quality assurance

Not applicable.

11.2. Quality management - assessment

Not applicable.

12. Relevance Top
12.1. Relevance - User Needs

For input to the 2018 edition of the Ageing Report.

12.2. Relevance - User Satisfaction

Not applicable.

12.3. Completeness

Not applicable.

13. Accuracy Top
13.1. Accuracy - overall

Not applicable.

13.2. Sampling error

Not applicable.

13.3. Non-sampling error

Not applicable.

14. Timeliness and punctuality Top
14.1. Timeliness

Not applicable.

14.2. Punctuality

Not applicable.

15. Coherence and comparability Top
15.1. Comparability - geographical

Not applicable.

15.2. Comparability - over time

Not applicable.

15.3. Coherence - cross domain

Not applicable.

15.4. Coherence - internal

Not applicable.

16. Cost and Burden Top

Not applicable.

17. Data revision Top
17.1. Data revision - policy

Not applicable.

17.2. Data revision - practice

Not applicable.

18. Statistical processing Top
18.1. Source data

Eurostat database.

18.2. Frequency of data collection

Not applicable.

18.3. Data collection

Not applicable.

18.4. Data validation

Not applicable.

18.5. Data compilation

Not applicable.

18.6. Adjustment

Not applicable.

19. Comment Top

Not applicable.

Related metadata Top

Annexes Top