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For any question on data and metadata, please contact: Eurostat user support |
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1.1. Contact organisation | Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. |
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1.2. Contact organisation unit | Unit F2: Population and migration. |
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1.5. Contact mail address | Eurostat - Office statistique de l’Union européenne 5, rue Alphone Weicker L-2721 Luxembourg |
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2.1. Metadata last certified | 30/05/2022 | ||
2.2. Metadata last posted | 24/06/2022 | ||
2.3. Metadata last update | 25/10/2022 |
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3.1. Data description | |||
EUROPOP2019 are the latest Eurostat population projections produced at national and subnational levels for 31 countries: all 27 European Union (EU) Member States and four European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries, covering the time horizon from 2019 to 2100. Population projections are 'what-if scenario' that aim to show the hypothetically developments of the population size and its structure based on a sets of assumptions for fertility, mortality and net migration; they are presented for a long time period that covers more than a half-century (50 years). The datasets at national level are composed by the baseline population projections and five sensitivity tests, namely:
Data are available by single year time interval, as follows:
Moreover, the demographic balances and indicators are available for the baseline projections and the five sensitive variants:
The dataset at regional level is composed by the baseline population projections and covers all 1169 regions classified as NUTS level 3 corresponding to the NUTS-2016 classification (the Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) and the 47 Statistical Regions (SR) agreed between European Commission and EFTA countries. Statistical regions are defined according to principles similar to those used in the establishment of the NUTS classification. For all 1216 regions NUTS-3 level, data are available by single year time interval as follows:
In addition to the baseline projections, datasets on projected population at regional level are available for two sensitivity tests:
Moreover, the demographic balances and indicators are available for the baseline projections and the two sensitive variants:
The additional dataset called ‘Short-term update of the projected population (2022-2032)’ [proj_stp22] was published on 28 September 2022. While EUROPOP2019 remain the main set of reference for population projections, this new dataset includes updates of baseline projections for the total population, population in the age group 15 to 74 years (considered as the population in the working-age group), and its share in the total population. In addition, two sensitivity tests are carried out – high and very high number of refugees – by introducing in the baseline projections a shock due to the mass-influx of refugees fleeing the war in Ukraine, and who have received temporary protection in the EU countries. The updated EUROPOP2019 projections were constructed from cumulative sums of weighted averages of annual population changes of two series: the original EUROPOP2019 projection and a new short-term population projection computed from the latest available data over the period of 10 years. The two sensitivity tests were built on the following assumptions:
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3.2. Classification system | |||
The territorial breakdown of the countries is according to the (EU) Regulation No 1260/2013 on European demographic statistics. The regional breakdown of the EU27 countries is according to the Commission Regulation (EU) 2016/2066 related to the establishment of a common classification of territorial units for statistics (NUTS), known as NUTS-2016 classification. For EFTA countries, the regional breakdown corresponds to Statistical Regions, which are defined according to principles similar to those used in the establishment of the NUTS classification. |
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3.3. Coverage - sector | |||
Demography. |
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3.4. Statistical concepts and definitions | |||
EUROPOP2019 Base population on 1 January 2019 is the population of the country as reported in the annual demographic statistics data collection run by Eurostat. Age-specific fertility rate is defined as the ratio between the number of live births occurring to women between ages x and x+1 and the number of person-years lived by women between ages x and x+1, over one calendar year. Probability of dying is defined as the ratio between the number of persons who reached the exact age x and the number among them who did not reached the age x+1, over one calendar year. The projected life expectancy by age in completed years is derived from the life expectancy as from the period-cohort life table (computed using the assumed probabilities of dying) by applying an estimated age-specific gap between these two measures of life expectancy. The projected life expectancy by age in completed years is provided for the convenience of the users, but it is not the outcome of a regular computation of a life table and it represent only an approximated measure of a life expectancy computed on age-period mortality data. More information in the Technical Notes. Median age is defined as the age x such that exactly one half of the population is older than x and the other half is younger than x. Proportion of population in each of the main demographic age groups is the number of - respectively - children (0–14 years), young persons (0-19 years), two age groups for persons in the working-age (15–64 years, and 20-64 years ), elderly (65 years and over) and oldest-old persons (80 years and over) in the total population. Young-age-dependency ratio - two ratios are available according to the age groups used to classify the persons as 'young' and in the 'working-age': 1) the young-age-dependency ratio - defined as the ratio between the number of persons aged 0-14 over the number of working-age persons (15-64 years); 2) the young-age-dependency ratio - defined as the ratio between the number of persons aged 0-19 over the number of working-age persons (20-64 years); Old-age-dependency ratio - two ratios are available according to the age group used to define the persons in the 'working-age': 1) the old-age-dependency ratio - defined as the ratio between the number of persons aged 65 years and more over the number of working-age persons (15-64 years); 2) the old-age-dependency ratio - defined as the ratio between the number of persons aged 65 years and more over the number of working-age persons (20-64 years); Total age-dependency ratio is defined as the sum of young- and old- age dependency ratios, based on the common age group used to define the persons in the 'working age'.
Short-term update of EUROPOP2019 population projections Base population on 1 January 2022 is the total population of the country as reported to Eurostat by the national statistical authorities in the latest annual demographic DEMOBAL data collection. Population in the working age is defined as the population of the country in the age group 15-74 years old. Proportion of population in the working age is define as the ratio between the population in the working age group 15-74 years old and the total population, expressed as percentage. |
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3.5. Statistical unit | |||
The statistical unit varies according to the data type as follows:
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3.6. Statistical population | |||
Statistical population is the projected total population on 1st January as defined in 3.4. Statistical concepts and definitions. |
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3.7. Reference area | |||
EU Members States and EFTA countries (Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland) |
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3.8. Coverage - Time | |||
EUROPOP2019: from the year 2019 to 2100. Short-term update of EUROPOP2019 population projections: from year the 2022 to 2032. To ensure the same staring year 2019 the latest population data transmitted to Eurostat following the release of EUROPOP2019 population projections are included as well. These transmitted data refer to the years from 2019 to 2022. |
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3.9. Base period | |||
EUROPOP2019: 1 January 2019. Short-term update of EUROPOP2019 population projections: 1 January 2022. |
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The specific measurement units vary depending on the population projections tables as follows:
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EUROPOP2019: the time period covered is from 2019 to 2100. Short-term update of EUROPOP2019 population projections: the time period covered is from 2022 to 2032. To ensure the same staring year 2019 the latest population data transmitted to Eurostat following the release of EUROPOP2019 population projections are included as well. These transmitted data refer to the years from 2019 to 2022. |
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6.1. Institutional Mandate - legal acts and other agreements | |||
Not applicable. |
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6.2. Institutional Mandate - data sharing | |||
Not applicable. |
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7.1. Confidentiality - policy | |||
Not applicable. |
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7.2. Confidentiality - data treatment | |||
Not applicable. |
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8.1. Release calendar | |||
EUROPOP2019
Short-term update of EUROPOP2019 population projections
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8.2. Release calendar access | |||
Not applicable. |
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8.3. Release policy - user access | |||
Not applicable. |
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Not applicable. |
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10.1. Dissemination format - News release | |||
Not applicable. |
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10.2. Dissemination format - Publications | |||
10.3. Dissemination format - online database | |||
Eurostat website under the folder 'Population projections' of the 'Population and social conditions" domain: |
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10.4. Dissemination format - microdata access | |||
Not applicable. |
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10.5. Dissemination format - other | |||
Not applicable. |
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10.6. Documentation on methodology | |||
Documentation on methodology available in annexes. Additional methodological questions can be addressed to: ESTAT-Pop-Projections@ec.europa.eu |
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10.7. Quality management - documentation | |||
Not applicable. |
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11.1. Quality assurance | |||
Not applicable. |
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11.2. Quality management - assessment | |||
Not applicable. |
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12.1. Relevance - User Needs | |||
Population projections help the public, statisticians and policymakers understand population dynamics. They contribute to informed debates on demographic and societal changes. |
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12.2. Relevance - User Satisfaction | |||
Not applicable. |
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12.3. Completeness | |||
Not applicable. |
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13.1. Accuracy - overall | |||
Not applicable. |
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13.2. Sampling error | |||
Not applicable. |
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13.3. Non-sampling error | |||
Not applicable. |
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14.1. Timeliness | |||
Not applicable. |
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14.2. Punctuality | |||
Not applicable. |
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15.1. Comparability - geographical | |||
Not applicable. |
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15.2. Comparability - over time | |||
See annexes |
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15.3. Coherence - cross domain | |||
Not applicable. |
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15.4. Coherence - internal | |||
Not applicable. |
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Not applicable. |
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17.1. Data revision - policy | |||
Not applicable. |
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17.2. Data revision - practice | |||
Not applicable. |
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18.1. Source data | |||
Eurostat database. |
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18.2. Frequency of data collection | |||
Not applicable. |
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18.3. Data collection | |||
Not applicable. |
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18.4. Data validation | |||
Not applicable. |
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18.5. Data compilation | |||
Not applicable. |
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18.6. Adjustment | |||
Not applicable. |
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Not applicable. |
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Technical note - EUROPOP2019 methodology Annex 1 - ASFR 2016-2018 smoothed Annex 2 - TFR trends extrapolation Annex 3 - TFR assumptions and their components Annex 4 - TFR by group of countries Annex 5 - ASFR assumptions Annex 6 - qx 2016-2018 smoothed Annex 7 - qx assumptions Annex 8 - e0 trends Annex 9 - e0 by group of countries Annex 10 - ox by sex and destination Annex 11 - Emigration levels until midterm Annex 12 - Scatterplots past median age and CER Annex 13 - ox assumptions Annex 14 - Non-EU immigration without WAFM until midterm Annex 15 - Share male and female past non-EU imm Annex 16 - Countries shares of EU immigration by sex and age Annex 17 - Projections p.pdf Annex 18 - Projections b Annex 19 - Projections d Annex 20 - Projections n.pdf Annex 21 - Projections OADR Annex 22 - Population pyramids at selected years Technical note - Alternative life table (with annex) Technical note - Correction of provisional nowcast data Summary methodology of the 2018-based population projections (EUROPOP2018) Summary methodology of the 2015-based population projections Technical note - Methodology of the breakdown of the Eurostat Population Projections 2019-based (EUROPOP2019) by NUTS 3 region Technical note - Methodology short-term update |
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