Statistics Estonia

Economic and Environmental Statistics Department

51 Tatari Street
10134 Tallinn

ESTONIA

The harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) is a consumer price index (CPI) that is calculated according to a harmonised approach. It measures the change over time of the prices of consumer goods and services acquired by households (inflation).

Due to the common methodology, the HICPs of the countries and European aggregates can be directly compared.

European classification of individual consumption according to purpose (ECOICOP)

The HICP covers the final monetary consumption expenditure of the household sector.

The main statistical variables are price indices.

The basic unit of statistical observation are prices for consumer products.

3.6.1. Statistical target population

The target statistical universe is the 'household final monetary consumption expenditure' (HFMCE) on the economic territory of the country by both resident and non-resident households. The household sector to which the definition refers, includes all individuals or groups of individuals irrespective of, in particular, the type of area in which they live, their position in the income distribution and their nationality or residence status. These definitions follow the national accounts concepts in the European System of Accounts.

3.6.2. Coverage error population

Population coverage: excluding individuals residing in special institutions.

3.7.1. Geographical coverage

The HICP refers to the economic territory of a country as referred to in paragraph 2.05 of Annex A to ESA 2010, with the exception that the extraterritorial enclaves situated within the boundaries of a Member State or a country are included and the territorial enclaves situated in the rest of the world are excluded.

3.7.2. Coverage error regions

The HICP refers to the whole economic territory of Estonia.

3.8.1. Start of time series

The HICP series started in January 1997.

3.8.2. Start of time series - national specifics

See the HICP database

2015=100

The following units are used:

• Index point
• Percentage change on the same period of the previous year (rates);
• Percentage change on the previous period (rates);
• Percentage share of the total (weights).

HICP is a monthly statistics.

Harmonised Indices of Consumer Prices (HICPs) are harmonised inflation figures required under the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. Regulation (EU) 2016/792 of the European Parliament and the Council of 11 May 2016 (OJ L 135) sets the legal basis for establishing a harmonised methodology for the compilation of the HICP and the HICP-CT.

This regulation is implemented by Commission Regulation (EU) 2020/1148 of 31 July 2020.

Further documentation, can be found in Eurostat’s website - HICP dedicated section, namely recommendations on specific topics, under the methodology page, and guidelines, under the quality page.

None.

Regulation (EC) No 223/2009 on European statistics (recital 24 and Article 20(4)) of 11 March 2009 (OJ L 87, p. 164), stipulates the need to establish common principles and guidelines ensuring the confidentiality of data used for the production of European statistics and the access to those confidential data with due account for technical developments and the requirements of users in a democratic society.

The dissemination of data collected for the purpose of producing official statistics is guided by the requirements provided for in § 34, § 35 and § 38 of the Official Statistics Act.

In line with the Community legal framework and the European Statistics Code of Practice Eurostat disseminates European statistics on Eurostat's website (see point 10 - 'Accessibility and clarity') respecting professional independence and in an objective, professional and transparent manner in which all users are treated equitably. The detailed arrangements are governed by the Protocol on impartial access to Eurostat data for users.

The HICP is released according to Eurostat’s Release calendar.

The calendar is publically available and published at the end of the year for the full following year.

Statistics Estonia website: Calendar | Statistikaamet

Eurostat website: HICP Release schedule.

Statistics Estonia: release date at 8 a.m. (7 a.m. CET) for all users.

Monthly

HICP is disseminated first on SE database. In the case of flash estimate only total index is published.

HICPs index levels are disseminated with two decimals. Dissemination languages are Estonian and English.

By Eurostat.

By Eurostat.

HICPs are published on the database of Statistics Estonia and by Eurostat, in the following webpages, respectively:

• IA023: HARMONIZED INDEX OF CONSUMER PRICES, 2005 = 100 (MONTHS). Statistical database
• Database - Harmonised Indices of Consumer Prices (HICP) - Eurostat (europa.eu)

See also the HICP dedicated section on Eurostat's website.

The HICP Methodological Manual provides the reference methodology for the production of HICP. (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-manuals-and-guidelines/-/KS-GQ-17-015)

10.6.1. Documentation on methodology - national specifics

Documentation on methodology can be found through the webpage: Consumer price index | Statistikaamet.

See Eurostat's Compliance Monitoring Reports of 2006, 2010 and 2020, with the follow-up report of 2023, all available on under the webpage: Quality - Harmonised Indices of Consumer Prices (HICP) - Eurostat (europa.eu).

European Statistics Code of Practice - Revised edition 2017: European Statistics Code of Practice - Quality - Eurostat (europa.eu).

11.1.1. Quality management - Compliance Monitoring

Compliance Monitoring

11.1.2. Quality assurance - national specifics

There are special guidelines for price collectors and also for central staff how to collect the data and how to compile the indices.  A regular pre-publication meeting is held. Questions arising on sub-indices are discussed and, where necessary, clarified by the staff.

11.2.1. Compliance monitoring - last report and main results

The last available compliance or follow-up report can be found in the dedicated HICP section on the webpage: Quality - Harmonised Indices of Consumer Prices (HICP) - Eurostat (europa.eu).

11.2.2. Quality assessment - national specifics

HICP indices are produced in compliance with HICP methodological requirements and standards. A national quality assessment of the HICP/CPI has not been made.

In addition to being a general measure of inflation, the HICP is also used in the areas of:

• wages, social benefit and contract indexation;
• economic forecasting and analysis;
• measuring specific price trends;
• accounting purposes and deflating other series;
• inflation targeting by central banks;
• cross-country economic comparisons.

The euro area (evolving composition) index is used by the European Central Bank (ECB) as the main indicator for monetary policy management. The ECB and the European Commission's Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN) use the HICP for assessing price stability and price convergence required for entry into European Monetary Union.

Other users include: National Central Banks, financial institutions, economic analysts, the media and the public at large.

12.1.1. User Needs - national specifics

The main national HICP/CPI users are Estonian Bank, Ministry of Finance and other financial institutions, economic analysts, media and public at large.

No special user satisfaction survey for HICP.

All required ECOICOP indices at 5-digit level for HICP and HICP-CT are produced from January 2016 indices.

The accuracy of source data is monitored by assessing the methodological soundness of price and weight sources and the adherence to the methodological recommendations. The accuracy of HICP is generally considered to be high.

Statistics Estonia does not produce numerical estimates of HICP sampling errors because they are difficult to quantify due to the complexity of price index structures and due to the common use of non-probability sampling. Consequently, no estimate for a global HICP sampling error could be produced.

For the HICPs non-sampling errors are not quantified.

The full set of HICPs is published each month according to Eurostat’s Release calendar, usually between 15 and 18 days after the end of the reference month.

Each year, the January release is published at the end of February to allow for the annual update of the weights, both of individual product groups and the relative country weights of Members States in the country group aggregates.

The euro area flash estimate is published on the last working day of the reference month or shortly after that.

Since the March 1997, launch of the HICP release, the HICP for the country groups aggregates has always been published on the dates announced in Eurostat’s Release calendar.

HICPs across Member States aim to be comparable. Any differences at all levels of detail should only reflect differences in price changes or expenditure patterns.

To this end, concepts and methods have been harmonised by means of legislation. HICPs that deviate from these concepts and methods are deemed comparable if they result in an index that is estimated to differ systematically by less than or equal to 0.1 percentage points on average over one year against the previous year (Article 4 of Council and Parliament Regulation (EU) 2016/792).

HICP data considered to be comparable over time. There have been several improvements in methodology since HICP was introduced with the aim of improving reliability and comparability of the HICP. These changes may have introduced breaks in time series. However back calculations under the newer standards were performed when appropriate basic data was available.

Differences between the HICP and national CPI

Domestic approach is used for HICP. National approach is used for CPI. There are no consumption expenditures which are included in the HICP but excluded from CPI. Some elements of games of chance (lotteries) are included in the CPI but excluded from HICP. HICP weights are price updated to December, but CPI weights are not price updated.

The HICPs are internally coherent. Higher level aggregations are derived from detailed indices according to well-defined procedures.

Not available

The HICP series, including back data, is revisable under the terms set in Articles 17-20 of Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2020/1148.

17.1.1. Data revision - policy - national specifics

The Estonian CPI is published as ‘final’ and is not subject to revision.

HICP may be revised in accordance with Regulation. There have been no principal revisions since the introduction of the Regulation. The change of reference year caused revisions to some previously published inflation rates because of rounding effects.

18.1.1. Weights

Sources of weights: weights derived mainly from the National Accounts and Household Budget Survey data. These data are checked and updated
with data from other statistical and non-statistical sources.
Frequency of weights update: annually.

18.1.1.1. Compilation at elementary aggregate level

18.1.1.2. Compilation of sub-index weights

18.1.1.3. Compilation of sub-index weights

18.1.1.4. Weights – plausibility checking

New weights are compared with previous year weights, CPI weights and developments of GDP.

18.1.1.5. Price updating

Price-updating is carried out to the previous year's December price level.

ECOICOP 5-digit level is applied for price-updating at elementary aggregate levels.

As we tried to start from t-1 the price-updating between t-2 and t-1 was not applied.

18.1.1.6. Compilation of total household final monetary consumption expenditure

18.1.2. Prices

The price data is mainly based on a survey.

18.1.2.1. Data Source - overview  

The main sources of price data used to compile the HICP are price collection on the field and central price collection.

18.1.2.2. Scanner data - general information

Scanner data currently are not used for price collection.

18.1.2.3. Web scraping - general information

18.1.3. Sampling

18.1.3.1. Sampling design: locations for survey

The consumer price survey is conducted in 9 counties out of 15, which covers 88% of the population.

18.1.3.2. Sampling design: outlets

The part of different shop chains on the market is very high in Estonia. The weight of different chains is followed by staff and if needed the corrections are made.

The outlet sample is further augmented and updated by price collectors’ experience and knowledge of the local market. There are not any categories of outlets excluded.

18.1.3.3. Sampling design: newly significant goods and services

For identifying new goods and services any available market information is collected by staff of SE in spite of the origin of information (price collectors, periodicals, questions from consumers etc.). List of items is reviewed once a year and, in general, new products are added from the index of the next January. Dual price collection for new goods and services is carried out at least for two months in the end of the year.

Price data is collected every month.

18.3.1. Price collection surveys

Price collectors work in 9 counties out of 15. Central price collection has been introduced for some items. All prices are collected monthly.

18.3.2. Timing of price collection

The observation period is mainly the week including the 15th day of the month.

All price changes are checked item by item. A regular pre-publication meeting is held. Questions arising on sub-indices are discussed and, where necessary, clarified by the staff.

18.4.1. Data validation - price data

First steps of data validation are carried out at the time the data are entered into tablet by price collectors. Several arithmetical validation rules allow to avoid data entry errors.

The price entered is compared with the price for the same product, in the same shop, in the previous month.

CPI staff compare collected prices with the previous month prices. Min and max prices are determined. In case of extreme prices or price changes CPI staff try to find out the reason. If a price is erroneous, it is rejected and price is corrected.

18.5.1. Elementary price index formulae

 Our HICP is a Laspeyres-type index.  Ratio of arithmetic mean prices is used for computation of lowest level indices. Choice of the formula is historical.

     The number of decimals that we apply for:

• Price observations - two decimals for product-offer.
• Weights - unrounded.
• The compilation and transmission of index figures and rates of change - unrounded.
• For publication of index figures and rates of change - two decimals for indices and one decimal for rate of change.

18.5.2. Aggregation of different data sources

18.5.3. Chaining, linking and splicing methods

Indices are calculated using base prices of last December. Then all aggregation is calculated on the base December (t-1)=100.  At aggregated level annual chain-link method is applied where December (t-1) is a linking month.

18.5.4. Quality adjustment – Detailed information

18.5.5. Seasonal items

Not applicable.

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