Statistics Lithuania. State Data Agency

Price Statistics Division

29 Gedimino Ave.

LT-01500 Vilnius

Lithuania

The harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) is a consumer price index (CPI) that is calculated according to a harmonised approach. It measures the change over time of the prices of consumer goods and services acquired by households (inflation).

Due to the common methodology, the HICPs of the countries and European aggregates can be directly compared.

European classification of individual consumption according to purpose (ECOICOP)

The HICP covers the final monetary consumption expenditure of the household sector.

The main statistical variables are price indices.

The basic unit of statistical observation are prices for consumer products.

The target statistical universe is the household final monetary consumption expenditure (HFMCE) within the economic territory of the country compiling the HICP. The household sector to which the definition refers includes all individuals or groups of individuals irrespective of, in particular, the type of area in which they live, their position in the income distribution and their nationality or residence status. These definitions follow the national accounts concepts in the European System of Accounts (ESA 2010).

HICP comprises all purchases by households within the economic territory of the country; those by both resident and non-resident households (i.e. domestic concept). HICP covers the prices paid for goods and services in monetary transactions. The prices measured are those actually faced by consumers. The HICPs exclude interest and credit charges, regarding them as financing costs rather than consumption expenditure.

3.6.1. Statistical target population

The target statistical universe is the 'household final monetary consumption expenditure' (HFMCE) on the economic territory of the country by both resident and non-resident households. The household sector to which the definition refers, includes all individuals or groups of individuals irrespective of, in particular, the type of area in which they live, their position in the income distribution and their nationality or residence status. These definitions follow the national accounts concepts in the European System of Accounts.

3.6.2. Coverage error population

No any deviations from the target population.

The HICP refers to the economic territory of a country as referred to in paragraph 2.05 of Annex A to ESA 2010, with the exception that the extraterritorial enclaves situated within the boundaries of a Member State or a country are included and the territorial enclaves situated in the rest of the world are excluded.

3.7.1. Geographical coverage

HICP covers the entire area of Lithuania. 18 territorial units representing the whole country are selected for the price survey using a cut-off sampling method at the first stage (towns containing a population less than 5 500 are rejected) and a purposive sampling method at the second stage. These units are made up of 10 counties and 8 regional centres (towns and cities).

The same geographical sample is used for national CPI and HICP. There is no strict stratification but prices are collected in small, medium towns and 5 cities. Prices for food, non-alcoholic and alcoholic beverages and tobacco are collected additionally in 10 villages.

3.7.2. Coverage error regions

No parts of country are excluded from the index.

HICPs at all ECOICOP levels with harmonised coverage and methodology are available from January 1996. HICP-CT time series are available from January 2003.

3.8.1. Start of time series

The HICP series started in January 1997.

3.8.2. Start of time series - national specifics

January 1996.

See the HICP database

2015=100

The following units are used:

• Index point
• Percentage change on the same period of the previous year (rates);
• Percentage change on the previous period (rates);
• Percentage share of the total (weights).

HICP is a monthly statistics.

Harmonised Indices of Consumer Prices (HICPs) are harmonised inflation figures required under the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. Regulation (EU) 2016/792 of the European Parliament and the Council of 11 May 2016 (OJ L 135) sets the legal basis for establishing a harmonised methodology for the compilation of the HICP and the HICP-CT.

This regulation is implemented by Commission Regulation (EU) 2020/1148 of 31 July 2020.

Further documentation, can be found in Eurostat’s website - HICP dedicated section, namely recommendations on specific topics, under the methodology page, and guidelines, under the quality page.

Statistics Lithuania is the only institution in the country engaged in the production of the HICP.

The data used for the production of statistics are considered confidential when they allow statistical units to be identified, either directly or indirectly. Direct identification refers to the identification of a respondent or statistical unit by name or title and address or by an officially assigned and announced identification number. Indirect identification refers to the possibility of identifying a respondent or statistical unit by means other than direct identification. The depersonalization of statistical data refers to the modification of statistical data in such a way that a respondent or statistical unit could not be identified directly. Considered as confidential is representative products list, weights and prices. 

The Rules for the Secure Management of Electronic Information in the Statistical Information System, approved on 27 August 2021 by Order No 202 and of the Director General of Statistics Lithuania, regulate the confidentiality of statistical data and statistical information. Statistical data and statistical information can be released if they meet the following requirements:

• the information released comprises data of at least three respondents;
• the total volume in a specific economic activity does not exceed 70 per cent per respondent;
• the total volume in a specific economic activity does not exceed 85 per cent per two respondents.

The data that do not meet the requirements listed above can be released or provided when a written permission of a statistical unit (respondent) is available.

European legislation related to statistical confidentiality: Regulation (EC) No 223/2009 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 March 2009 on European statistics and repealing Regulation (EC, Euratom) No 1101/2008 of the European Parliament and of the Council on the transmission of data subject to statistical confidentiality to the Statistical Office of the European Communities, Council Regulation (EC) No 322/97 on Community Statistics, and Council Decision 89/382/EEC, Euratom establishing a Committee on the Statistical Programmes of the European Communities; Commission Regulation (EC) No 557/2013 of 17 June 2013, implementing Regulation (EC) No 223/2009 of the European Parliament and of the Council on European Statistics as regards access to confidential data for scientific purposes and repealing Commission Regulation (EC) No 831/2002. 

Statistics Lithuania provides data to Eurostat for the production of specific Community statistics and data to other European Statistical System (ESS) institutions following the provisions of Article 21 of Regulation (EC) No 223/2009 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 March 2009 on European statistics. 

National legislation related to statistical confidentiality: the Law on Statistics of the Republic of Lithuania, the Law on Legal Protection of Personal Data of the Republic of Lithuania. 

The Description of Procedures for the Provision of Confidential Statistical Data for Scientific Purposes, approved on 20 October 2021 by Order No 256 of the Director General of Statistics Lithuania, regulates the confidentiality of statistical data for scientific purposes. According to the said Description of Procedures, confidential statistical data can be provided for use for scientific purposes only in such a way that the respondents could not be directly identified from the data.

According to policy rules laid down in Regulation (EC) No 223/2009.

Law on Statistics of the Republic of Lithuania: Statistical data collected for official statistics purposes may be used exclusively for the preparation of statistical information. Where the respondent about whom or whose activity results the primary statistical data have been collected may be directly or indirectly identified on the basis of official statistical data, such official statistical data shall be confidential and protected in the manner prescribed by laws.

Integrated Statistical Information System Data Security Regulations and Rules for the Secure Management of Electronic Information in the Integrated Statistical Information System, approved by Order No 202 of 27 August 2021  of the Director General of Statistics Lithuania.

In line with the Community legal framework and the European Statistics Code of Practice Eurostat disseminates European statistics on Eurostat's website (see point 10 - 'Accessibility and clarity') respecting professional independence and in an objective, professional and transparent manner in which all users are treated equitably. The detailed arrangements are governed by the Protocol on impartial access to Eurostat data for users.

The HICP is released according to Eurostat’s Release calendar.

The calendar is publically available and published at the end of the year for the full following year.

Link to the release calendar:

https://osp.stat.gov.lt/informacijos-skelbimo-kalendoriai

a) Users see data is being released on news board in https://osp.stat.gov.lt/pradinis

b) No pre-access for specific users.

Monthly

a) HICPs are published in the following electronic publications/databases of Statistics Lithuania:

• the Lithuania in numbers (electronic format);
• the Database of Indicators (electronic format);
• the press-releases (including flash estimate).

All these publications are available on the Official Statistics Portal;

b) HICP rates with one decimal and index levels are disseminated with two decimal;

c) HICP is published also in English.

HICP, HICP flash estimate press releases are available on-line.

In press release the latest rates of prices change can be found.

English versions are available.

HICPs are published in the databases of Statistics Lithuania:

• the Database of Indicators

Publications are available on the Official Statistics Portal in Lithuanian and English.

Link to the online database here

Micro-data underlying the HICP is not accessible for researchers and is not disseminated.

Not available.

The HICP Methodological Manual provides the reference methodology for the production of HICP.

10.6.1. Documentation on methodology - national specifics

Links to documentation:

• metadata: Harmonised index of consumer prices (stat.gov.lt)
• methodology:  Metodika (stat.gov.lt) (only in Lithuanian).

Statistics Lithuania follows the UN Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics, provisions of the Quality Declaration of the European Statistical System (ESS) and the European Statistics Code of Practice.

All documents available on the web page: Quality in statistics - Oficialiosios statistikos portalas.

In order to ensure the quality of statistical information and its own activities, Statistics Lithuania follows the provisions of the Quality Declaration of the European Statistical System (ESS) and the  European Statistics Code of Practice.

On November 2021, a peer review on the implementation of the European Statistics Code of Practice, initiated by Eurostat, took place in Lithuania.

In 2007, a quality management system, conforming with the requirements of the international quality management system standard ISO 9001, was introduced at Statistics Lithuania. In 2010, 2013,2016 and 2019 the quality management system was re-certified.

A software for the computerized system for the transmission, processing, and aggregation of data has been developed.

A random or targeted audit of individual price collectors is carried out by the specialists of the Price Statistics Division.

11.1.1. Quality management - Compliance Monitoring

Compliance Monitoring

11.1.2. Quality assurance - national specifics

In order to ensure the quality of statistical information and its own activities, Statistics Lithuania follows the provisions of the Quality Declaration of the European Statistical System (ESS) and the European Statistics Code of Practice. On November 2021, a peer review on the implementation of the European Statistics Code of Practice, initiated by Eurostat, took place in Lithuania.

In 2007, a quality management system, conforming to the requirements of the international quality management system standard ISO 9001, was introduced at Statistics Lithuania. In 2010, 2013, 2016 and 2019 the quality management system was re-certified.

A software for the computerised system for the transmission, processing, and aggregation of data has been developed.

A random or targeted audit of individual price collectors is carried out by the specialists of the Price Statistics Division.

In order to ensure the quality of statistical information and effective organisation of its own activities, SL applies the following tools:

• System of measuring and monitoring of SL performance indicators allows making expeditious decisions based on objective information, important for the improvement of performance and removing drawbacks. For all performance indicators, critical values are defined, which allows managing risk, identifying and solving problems on time. 
  Monitoring of the quality of statistical information is based on quality requirements of the ESS (relevance, accuracy, timelines and punctuality, accessibility and clarity, coherence and comparability).

From 2007, inspections of statistical surveys have been carried out, the purpose whereof – objective estimation of the quality of preparation of statistics, exchange of experience, indication of good examples. Experts of SL, who assess a statistical survey, prepare detailed recommendations

• for the improvement of the quality of statistical surveys. During the inspection of a statistical survey, the following aspects are assessed: management and planning, applied methods, staff qualification and competence, application of IT tools, dissemination of statistical information, user relations.

From 2004, a self-assessment of statistical survey managers has been carried out on the initiative of survey managers. The self-assessment allows identifying the drawbacks with the organisation of statistical surveys, areas for improvement. It is based on a detailed checklist for quality assessment of surveys (DESAP, XLS).

11.2.1. Compliance monitoring - last report and main results

The last available compliance or follow-up report can be found in Eurostat's web page Quality - Harmonised Indices of Consumer Prices (HICP) - Eurostat (europa.eu).

11.2.2. Quality assessment - national specifics

The quality of the information on the HICP complies with the accuracy, timeliness and punctuality, comparability and compatibility requirements.

Eurostat periodically verifies the compliance of the Lithuanian HICP with the EU requirements and performs quality monitoring. In 2006, Eurostat verified the compliance of the Lithuanian HICP with the EU requirements and evaluated it as appropriate.

In March 2013, the compliance of the Lithuanian HICP with the EU requirements was checked by Eurostat, the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs and the European Central Bank. During the assessment of compliance it was verified that Lithuanian HICP meets the EU requirements, the quality of consumer price statistics was improved (see the  Eurostat’s web page Quality - Harmonised Indices of Consumer Prices (HICP) - Eurostat (europa.eu)).

A self-assessment is periodically performed by the managers of the statistical survey (DESAP).

Survey managers are committed to perform a self-assessment once per 5 years.

In addition to being a general measure of inflation, the HICP is also used in the areas of:

• wages, social benefit and contract indexation;
• economic forecasting and analysis;
• measuring specific price trends;
• accounting purposes and deflating other series;
• inflation targeting by central banks;
• cross-country economic comparisons.

The euro area (evolving composition) index is used by the European Central Bank (ECB) as the main indicator for monetary policy management. The ECB and the European Commission's Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN) use the HICP for assessing price stability and price convergence required for entry into European Monetary Union.

Other users include: National Central Banks, financial institutions, economic analysts, the media and the public at large.

12.1.1. User Needs - national specifics

The HICP is the instrument for the accomplishment of comparisons on the international scale. The HICPs are necessary for monitoring the price stability in the EU Member States and euro area and for the assessment of the economic convergence. Sometimes, it is used as an instrument for indexation and compensation according to contracts.

The main national users of statistical information are:

• the Bank of Lithuania,
• the Government of the Republic of Lithuania,
• Ministry of Finance,
• the media,
• state institutions and agencies,
• research communities, students,
• municipal authorities,
• business communities

The HICP is an instrument for forecasting and analysing the economic development in Lithuania, researching the consumer market, contracts, preparation of convergence reports, assessment compliance with the Maastricht price stability criterion and other needs.

Starting from 2005, Statistics Lithuania carries out a general user opinion surveys on a regular basis. The Official Statistics Portal traffic is monitored; website visitor opinion polls, general opinion polls on the products and services of Statistics Lithuania, target user group opinion polls and other surveys are conducted. The said surveys are aimed at the assessment of the overall demand for and necessity of statistical information in general and specific statistical indicators in particular. From 2007, estimation of the customer satisfaction level has been started.

The Methodology for evaluation of the Customer satisfaction index was approved in January 2008. It relates to the relevance, sufficiency, clarity, reliability / trust, as well as quality and one of the national interests on visibility of the official statistics.

A special survey of HICP user satisfaction was not conducted.

All ECOICOP categories accounting at least one part in a thousand of the total expenditure are covered by the HICP and HICP-CT; sub-indices are calculated and transmitted to Eurostat.

The accuracy of source data is monitored by assessing the methodological soundness of price and weights’ sources and the adherence to the methodological recommendations according to the general system of measuring and monitoring the quality of performance in place at Statistics Lithuania. The main errors occur due to incorrect recording, entering of prices, selection of a measuring unit, as well as mismatch of the selected product to the description of the representative product.

The inaccuracy of the household budget statistical survey data, which are used for the detailing of the weights, is determined by the tendency for households to hide certain expenditure (e.g. on alcoholic beverages and tobacco products) and refusal of some households to participate in the household budget statistical survey.

To reduce the number of price recording and entering errors, verification functions are installed in the mobile devices used for price recording and in primary data verification software used at the Price Statistics Division, outlets in territorial units are visited to carry out follow-up checks to confirm the reported prices.

The general system for measurement and monitoring of performance quality is implemented at Statistics Lithuania. The following tools for HICP quality monitoring and assurance are used:

• Self-assessment of survey managers (based on DESAP (European checklists for survey managers);
• Training of price collectors;
• Testing of the previously approved statistical questionnaires.

The requirements of the geographical and population coverage of the HICP have been implemented. 

The type of consumer price survey and the price collection methods ensure sufficient coverage and timeliness. 

Furthermore, accuracy of the HICP is continuously improved by implementation of new HICP standards and concrete best practices of other national statistical institutions of EU Member States.

Statistics Lithuania use non-probability sampling in case probability sampling is more expensive, more suitable for bigger countries. 

Non-sampling errors are not calculated. Efforts are made to reduce non-sampling errors through the continuous improvement of the methods applied and the process of the statistical survey on prices of consumer goods and services (e.g. the use of mobile devices for the collection of prices helps to avoid coding and entry errors and the accuracy of transmitted statistical data is checked).

The full set of HICPs is published each month according to Eurostat’s Release calendar, usually between 15 and 18 days after the end of the reference month.

Each year, the January release is published at the end of February to allow for the annual update of the weights, both of individual product groups and the relative country weights of Members States in the country group aggregates.

The euro area flash estimate is published on the last working day of the reference month or shortly after that.

Since the March 1997, launch of the HICP release, the HICP for the country groups aggregates has always been published on the dates announced in Eurostat’s Release calendar.

HICPs across Member States aim to be comparable. Any differences at all levels of detail should only reflect differences in price changes or expenditure patterns.

To this end, concepts and methods have been harmonised by means of legislation. HICPs that deviate from these concepts and methods are deemed comparable if they result in an index that is estimated to differ systematically by less than or equal to 0.1 percentage points on average over one year against the previous year (Article 4 of Council and Parliament Regulation (EU) 2016/792).

Before the implementation of the new HICP index reference period 2005=100, in order to reach better consistency of HICPs, Eurostat requested the EU Member States to revise HICPs time series, which were constructed using the reference period 1996=100, and to perform revision of HICPs time series.

In order to achieve better harmonisation of the interim HICP for 1996–2000, implement requirements of Council Regulation (EC) No 1687/98 concerning the extended coverage and of Commission Regulation (EC) No 1749/1999 concerning sub-indices of the HICP  (both repealed and replaced by Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 1148/2020) , improve the quality of the HICP as well as provide more detailed ECOICOP sub-indices to users, Statistics Lithuania performed a revision of time series and recalculated HICPs for 1996–2000. All HICPs were calculated using the index reference period 1996. Therefore, the revision of the previous periods’ HICPs influenced the values of the later periods’ indicators to some extent.

The index reference period for HICP is updated every 10 years since 2005.

The rescaling of index figures to the new index reference year (from 2005 = 100 to 2015 = 100) was carried out according to procedure described in Commission Regulation (EU) 2015/2010 (repealed and replaced by Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 1148/2020). Rescaling was carried out by taking the relevant published 2005 = 100 index levels. The calculation exercise consisted in calculating the rescaling factor for each HICP index 2005 = 100 series as ratio of a hundred to the mean of the 2015 index figures and then multiplying this rescaling factor with each published 2005 = 100 index in order to reach the 2015 = 100 series. The result was rebased index levels.

Implementation of ECOICOP required recalculation of time series at 5-digit level.

a) The HICP is used for the measurement of inflation in the EU and international comparisons, calculation of European index of consumer prices, Monetary Union index of consumer prices and European Economic Area index of consumer prices. The country’s compliance with the price stability criterion referred to in Article 140 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union is assessed taking into consideration the HICP-based inflation rate. The CPI is used for the measurement of inflation on the national scale and serves as a principal tool in indexation.

b) As regards territorial coverage, the CPI and the HICP cover the economic territory of the country as referred to in paragraph 2.05 of Annex A to ESA 2010.

As regards population coverage – all Lithuania’s households, except for persons not residing in the country on a permanent basis. Out of institutional households, only persons residing in care institutions and independent living facilities for the elderly and adults with disabilities are covered. In addition to the monetary consumption expenditure of the residents of the country, the HICP covers the expenditure of non-residents and those of foreign visitors within the economic territory of the country. Country’s territory, represented by the following: small (Ignalina, Kelmė, Varėna, Šilutė, Rokiškis) and medium (Alytus, Marijampolė, Tauragė, Utena, Telšiai, Kėdainiai, Mažeikiai, Ukmergė) towns and major cities (Vilnius, Kaunas, Klaipėda, Šiauliai, Panevėžys).

c) Neither the CPI nor the HICP include the monetary consumption expenditure for narcotics, prostitution, life insurance, purchasing of dwelling and other expenditure belonging to the OOH price index.

There are differences in the coverage of goods and services in the national CPI and the HICP. The CPI covers household expenditure on games of chance, which are not covered by the HICP.

d) There are no differences in the treatment of product groups in the CPI and HICP.

e) Due to the different coverage of consumption expenditure, different weighting systems are used for the calculation of the HICP and the CPI. This is the main factor causing differences in the value of indices.

The HICP is compiled on the basis of the European Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose ECOICOP. The CPI is compiled on the basis of the COICOP (Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose).

The HICPs are internally coherent. Higher level aggregations are derived from detailed indices according to well-defined procedures.

Not available

The HICP series, including back data, is revisable under the terms set in Articles 17-20 of Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2020/1148.

17.1.1. Data revision - policy - national specifics

The general revision of in Statistics of Lithuania: after amendments in legal acts, detection of significant errors, revisions of statistical indicators are performed. Users are informed about their results and changes immediately. Users are informed about planned revisions in advance through a planned statistical information revision calendar. Revisions are conducted in accordance with an approved statistical information revision calendar.

The Lithuanian HICP is revisable.

The published HICP data may be revised for mistakes, new or improved information, and changes in the system of harmonised rules. 

In the past 10 years, HICP has never been revised.

18.1.1. Weights

While preparing the weights structure for HICP, national accounts are being used as the main data source. These data are made suitable for the HICP needs removing expenditure categories which did not belong to the HICP coverage. For this purpose, expenditure on narcotics, imputed rentals for housing, games of chance, prostitution, life insurance, financial intermediation services indirectly measured, household consumption of own production, goods and services received by employees as wages and salaries in kind and other adjustments used for national accounts are eliminated from the household final consumption expenditure. The new household final monetary consumption expenditure structure is prepared.

The most recent version of 2022 expenditure from national accounts was used to start preparing the weights.

The weights at sub-index level for year t-1 was obtained from provisional national accounts data based on the t-2 structure of national accounts.

Based on preliminary national accounts data, some sub-indices have been estimated using information from other statistical domains

• Data on retail sale of food, beverages and tobacco;

• Data on retail sale of textiles and clothing;

• Data on retail sale of footwear and leather goods in specialised stores;

• Data on cars and light motor vehicles;

• Data on retail sale of automotive fuel in specialised stores;

• Data on retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles;

• Data on retail sale of medical and orthopaedic goods, cosmetic and toilet articles in specialised stores;

• Data on retail sale of other household equipment in specialised stores;

• Data on retail sale of newspapers and stationery in specialised stores;

• Data on retail sale of books in specialized stores;

• Data on retail sale of computers, peripheral units and software;

• Air transport services data;

• Accommodation services data;

• Tourism statistics data;

• Transport statistics data;

• Data (for electricity, gas, cars) of others institutions

National accounts provide data on household final consumption expenditure according to COICOP 4 and higher levels. Data from household budgets is used for lower-level estimation. The weighting system for calculating the CPI is prepared based on the HBS data, which is also used in the preparation of the HICP weighting system at a lower level. Special attention is paid to those groups in which the expenses for calculating the CPI are higher than the expenses provided by the national accounts.

18.1.1.1. Compilation at elementary aggregate level

a) To derive the price indices for the reporting month at the national level for each of elementary aggregates, population weights (comparative shares of the number of population) for each of 18 territorial units’ zones are used. Each territorial unit, in which prices are collected, represents a specific geographical zone of the country. Comparative weights of the population of each zone are determined within the total population number in the country and these are applied as weights. 

b) The lowest level of aggregation where explicit weights (expenditure shares) are introduced is at the representative products level.

c) For the HICP weights calculation not only HBS is used.

d) While preparing HICP weights, national accounts is used as main data source. Data of other statistical domains (domestic and foreign trade, transport and services, energy, education and culture, social protection statistics, other institutions (Communications Regulatory Authority, the Bank of Lithuania) and enterprises are also used to adjust expenditure underestimated in the HBS and for necessary detailing of the expenditure by representative products CPI data is used.

e) Weights applied at the elementary aggregate level are updated annually.

f) No weights are calculated for regions. For territorial units, weights are calculated according to the population in the territorial unit. 

g) No outlet weights are being calculated.

18.1.1.2. Compilation of sub-index weights

The most recent version of 2021 expenditure from national accounts, including the ECOICOP breakdown, which is adapted to t-1 expenditure from national account, was used to start preparing the weights for the HICP calculation.

Some sub-index level weights have been updated from other data sources.

18.1.1.3. Compilation of sub-index weights

The reference period of the data used for the calculation of the weights of sub-indices for year twas obtained from provisional t-1 national accounts data based on the t-2 structure of national accounts.

18.1.1.4. Weights – plausibility checking

Annually, the whole HICP weights system is reviewed. New weights system is prepared based on the national accounts data. Special attention is paid to the national accounts data for ECOICOP/HICP categories where the critical weights are expected, i.e. categories covering products which prices are administered or where significant market changes or where untypical price movements occurred.

18.1.1.5. Price updating

The HICP weights were price-updated to the previous year’s December price level (price reference period).

The price-updating to December t-1 is conducted: the HICP December 2022 is compared to HICP average of 2022.

18.1.1.6. Compilation of total household final monetary consumption expenditure

To estimate the total Household Final Monetary Consumption Expenditure (HFMCE) the National Accounts data on Final consumption expenditure of households by consumption purpose was used. From the Final consumption expenditure of households by consumption purpose the expenditure on narcotics, imputed rentals for housing, games of chance, prostitution, life insurance, FISIM, income in kind, such as free food for employees in agriculture, and other own final consumption that does not involve monetary transactions, income in kind, such as free food for employees in agriculture, and other own final consumption that does not involve monetary transactions was excluded.

The fourth quarter 2022 was estimated using the expert methods. This decision was made after study of retail and services data and lockdown periods.

18.1.2. Prices

Pricing data is based on a survey, on administrative data sources, on a mix of multiple data sources or on data from other statistical activities.

18.1.2.1. Data Source - overview  

Main sources are:

• survey data - price cadministrative data source – Communications Regulatory Authority – and companies supplying goods or services to households. The latter provide information on the revenue gained from households taking into account the tariff system of the company.
• webscraping.
• centralised data collection.

The main source of prices for electricity and natural gas are decisions of the National Energy Regulatory Council (hereinafter referred to as 'NERC'). Prices for telephone services are obtained via the Internet from the pricelists published on the websites of telephone services providers. Sometimes prices are received by telephone inquiries (e.g. for mobile services when the prices are not indicated on websites). Prices for natural gas, telephone services, postal services, railway transport services apply to the whole territory of the country (there is no variation in prices between territorial units).

18.1.2.2. Scanner data - general information

Scanner data is not used.

18.1.2.3. Web scraping - general information

Prices collected (not all) through web scraping are primarily for the following ECOICOP:

01 – FOOD AND NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES (2 internet shops, about 400 products prices every month);

04 – HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS AND OTHER FUELS (bulk scraping to collect the prices of rents);

05 – FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT AND ROUTINE HOUSE MAINTENANCE (8 internet shops for some goods);

06 – HEALTH (4 internet shops about 70 products prices in each shop every month);

08 – COMMUNICATIONS - a limited number of products from 3 internet shops;

09 – RECREATION AND CULTURE (books prices from 2 internet shops, prices of some goods from 4 internet shops);

11 – RESTAURANTS AND HOTELS (bulk scraping to collect the prices of accommodation services provided by hotels).

18.1.3. Sampling

18.1.3.1. Sampling design: locations for survey

The sample is geographically stratified according to administrative division of the country. In Lithuania, there are 10 counties. Each of 10 counties is represented by one, two or three territorial units – cities and towns.

There are two regions in Lithuania. They both are included and represented by 18 selected territorial units.

18.1.3.2. Sampling design: outlets

Purposive sampling is used for the selection of outlets. Outlets are chosen to properly represent the existing trade and service network in terms of specialization, geographical location and form of ownership of the outlet. To ensure that the most popular outlets where majority of consumers do their shopping would be selected, the sample is done taking into account the retail turnover of retail trade outlets and revenues of the services’ outlets from the provision of services to households.

Large, medium and small trade outlets, specialised, combined and supermarkets, big stores, marketplaces, kiosks, petrol stations and outlets providing services are included in the sample. From 2016, such outlet category as an Internet shopping is also included.

18.1.3.3. Sampling design: newly significant goods and services

In order to evaluate whether new products appeared on the consumer market are significant for households, some steps are taken: prices for these new products are observed without including them in the HICP aiming to ascertain whether sufficient number of price quotations can be collected; the stability of new products on the consumer market and demand for them is monitored; monetary consumption expenditure for the period of 12 months is estimated; price indices for new products are calculated for price-updating of weights. In order to have information for estimation of weights, the specialists carrying out the HBS are asked to include new products in the HBS. When decision that a particular product becomes significant to households is made, it is included in the HICP calculation.

In 2023, new goods and services were introduced in the HICP calculation:

• Natural caviar of salmon fish or trout
• Mango
• Soup in a jar
• Cigarillos
• Pharmaceutical products of twelve names
• Mobile phone Apple iPhone

Price data is collected every month.

18.3.1. Price collection surveys

The great majority of prices are collected by price collectors visiting outlets. The prices that can be observed on the Internet are collected centrally by the specialists of the Price Statistics Division.

In price collection system, the responsibilities of the central staff and the local staff are distributed as follows.

Responsibilities of the central staff:

• to organise the price collection procedure;
• to work out yearly the timetable for price collectors on the collection and transmission of the primary data on prices for consumer goods and services and incorporate it in the annual Data Preparation Plan of Statistics Lithuania;
• to prepare a sample of representative products with concrete definitions of representative products and to carry out annual review and update of the representative products basket;
• to instruct the price collectors on the sampling procedure and criteria to be used while selecting the outlets and product-offers for the price survey;
• to collect primary data on prices and tariffs that are regulated by the central government or the national regulator as well as market prices for some complicated products (e.g. data processing equipment, cars) and prices which are the same across the entire country;
• to carry out the secondary verification of the primary data received from price collectors and appropriate adjustments and imputations in cases of changes in quality and missing prices;
• to prepare the weights’ system and perform the calculation of the CPI and HICP;
• to prepare the summary tables and press releases as well as other publications, to transmit them to the Public Relations Division for dissemination, to transmit statistical information to Eurostat;
• to elaborate methodological documents describing the methods used at the various stages of compiling the CPI and HICP and different price sub-indices;
• to carry out methodological guidance of the consumer price survey,
• to elaborate detailed rules, manuals, supplementary instructions on specific requirements in price collection;
• verification of the primary data on prices;
• to train price collectors and inspect their work regularly;
• to maintain the software in electronic devices. 

Responsibilities of the local staff:

•  to select product-offers in outlets for monthly price collection;
•  to collect prices for the HICP/CPI, PPP needs and average prices by Eurostat’s product list through monthly visits to selected outlets, by phone, on the basis of the legal acts of local authorities;
•  to cooperate with shopkeepers or their assistants aiming to explore the reasons of significant changes in prices;
•  to enter the collected price data into electronic devices or record in a paper questionnaire;
•  after initial entry of price data into electronic devices, to carry out their first verification. Price collectors are responsible for the precision of the primary data on prices;
•  to transmit the data as well as information about the details on changes in characteristics of goods and services, evaluations of price change due to the quality change (done together with shopkeepers or their assistants),  explanations of the reasons on   significant price changes, the copies of appropriate local authorities’ decisions to the Price Statistics Division to an agreed timetable;
•  to follow the market development and to inform timely the Price Statistics Division on changes of outlets selling goods or services as well as the coming of new goods and services into the market. 

18.3.2. Timing of price collection

Prices of goods and services are collected on the 1^st–20^st day  (13 working days) of each reporting month and prices of seasonal food products and fuels are additionally collected on the 21^nd–30^th day (3 working days).

Primary validation

Monthly checks against errors and mistakes in price information are carried out by both the central and the local staff.

Price collectors carry out the primary verification and editing of the primary price data collected. Some checking functions have been installed in the mobile devices software. When outliers (e.g. the change in price from the previous month is more than 50%) are detected during the collection, the price collector immediately gets warning either to correct the data or to confirm it providing some explanation. The software also provides facilities of sorting of selected goods and services; protection from missing or duplication of the product or outlet; the display of the 12-months history of price quotes for each product. Price collectors have access to the central database and can check the transmitted data. After entering and checking the data, price collectors transmit them by the Internet together with explanations of reasons on the individual price observation if unusual price changes are obtained, according to the approved timetable by the Price Statistics Division. 

Secondary validation

The Price Statistics Division carries out the secondary verification and editing of the statistical data received and confirmation of the data relevance for further calculations using the software designed to define outliers, missing prices and quality differences, to make estimations for missing prices, to recalculate prices due to quality changes, to validate the data. In some cases, dubious price changes are checked by reference back to the outlet. Prices and price changes may also be checked with domestic producers and suppliers of goods and services where these suspicions remain. The staff of the Price Statistics Division clarifies all uncertainties with the price collectors using the queries sent to price collectors via software for data collection and verification, e-mail and by the telephone.

Preliminary price indices of products are crosschecked against the PPI and information received from other institutions, information regarding changes in VAT, excise and import duty, other Government intervention, reports on unusual seasonal variations due to adverse weather conditions. The information in media is observed in order to know more about what happens in business sector, particularly in manufacturing, import and wholesale. The impact of price change of separate products or their groups on the overall consumer price rate of change is calculated. The preliminary results of the national CPI/HICP are then discussed during the monthly meetings of the staff involved in the production of consumer price statistics (CPI/HICP).

Additional data quality checks are carried out by Eurostat.

18.4.1. Data validation - price data

Special software installed in mobile devices helps price collectors detecting data entry errors. Additionally, specialists of Price Statistics Division use several algorithms and perform comparative analysis.

Detected errors are corrected. Suspicious price changes are checked by reference back to the outlet. Prices may also be checked with domestic producers and suppliers of goods and services where these suspicions remain. The staff of the Price Statistics Division clarifies all uncertainties with the price collectors.

Price collectors are responsible for ensuring that prices of similar products are collected over time. Any changes of specifications or quality are reported to the Price Statistics Division by price collectors; quality adjustment is made.

Specialists of the Price Statistics Division perform comparative analysis after receiving data from price collectors.

In general, all prices reported by the price collectors are accepted. Editing of prices is carried out by the central staff using software designed for monthly verification, editing and validation procedure. The data on prices can be edited in case of mistake. The editing is carried out particularly for the concrete record. Adjustment of reported prices is done in case of replacement product, imputation in case of missing prices. In case of extreme prices or price changes additional consultations are made with price collectors in order to determine the reasons of deviated prices or price changes.

18.5.1. Elementary price index formulae

a. The HICP is a Laspeyres-type index in which the month-to-month movements in prices are measured as an average of price indices using fixed expenditure weights.

b. Dutot formula is used, because of its properties and simplicity.

c. Alternative formula is not applicable.

d. The majority of prices are observed with 2 decimals. For some products prices with more than 2 decimals are observed. Prices for heat energy have 4 decimals; tariff prices for electricity, prices for public dwelling apartment rent, fees paid by apartment owners for the permanent technical maintenance of common-use objects in multi-occupied houses, co-proprietor charges for administration of building, for heating and hot water supply systems maintenance have 3 decimals. 

The weights used for the HICP calculation have 4 decimals. 

In calculations of the HICP no rounding is used. The HICP time series based on the index 2015 reference period are calculated using price indices with all decimals, and the results obtained are rounded to two decimals according to mathematical rules. Index figures are transmitted to Eurostat with all decimals. 

The HICPs are published rounded to two decimals. Monthly, annual, average annual and other periods’ rates of change are computed on the basis of these HICP time series and published rounded to one decimal.

18.5.2. Aggregation of different data sources

At the first stage of the HICP calculation, the average price is obtained of each representative product in each territorial unit using the arithmetic mean. For all elementary aggregate indices, the Dutot formula is used. The average price of each representative product in the reporting month is compared with the corresponding average price of the previous month. The short-term price ratio is calculated for each representative product in each territorial unit. The resulting short-term price ratio is multiplied by the long-term price ratio of the previous month to derive the long-term price ratio of each representative product in each territorial unit for the reporting month compared to December of the previous year.

The long-term price ratio for the reporting month of each product in each territorial unit is weighted by the respective share of total inhabitants in Lithuania. The result of this procedure is to produce price indices for each representative product at the national level.

Price indices of representative products are aggregated to higher-level price indices and the country’s All-items HICP according to the Laspeyres-type formula. Product price indices are aggregated into the price indices of sub-classes, classes, groups and divisions of the ECOICOP.

18.5.3. Chaining, linking and splicing methods

a. For the HICP time series, the annual chain linking method is used. December of the previous year is the linking month.

b. The splicing in the time series is not used.

18.5.4. Quality adjustment – Detailed information

Explicit (‘expert judgment’, ‘option pricing’, ‘hedonic’, ‘quantity adjustment’) and implicit (‘bridged overlap’) quality adjustment methods are used for particular goods. In some cases, the overlap method is used.

Using ‘expert judgement’ method, the impact of the change in quality on the price is estimated by the price collector assisted by the employee of the outlet. The price collector has to inform the Price Statistics Division about the change in quality and the impact thereof on the change in the price. The information obtained is analysed and, taking into account the impact of the change in quality, the staff of the Price Statistics Division recalculates the price of the replaced product of the previous month and the price of the replacement product in the current month is compared with adjusted price of replaced product in the previous month.

Using ‘option pricing’ method, expenditure is assessed for the new characteristic of the product that was not present in the replaced product. Then, the price of the replaced product in the previous month is recalculated based on the assumption that the new characteristic was presented in the replaced product, and then, the price of the replacement product in the current month is compared with the recalculated price of the replaced product of the previous month.

 ‘Hedonic’ method based on a regression equation, which expresses the price of a product as a function of its qualitative characteristics which determine the change in the product price. 

According to ‘quantity adjustment’ method, the price of a replaced product is recalculated proportionally, taking into account the quantity ratio of the replaced to the replacement products. 

A ‘bridged overlap’ method is used in case when the price collector cannot record the price of the replaced product in the current month and selects a replacement product whose price in the previous month cannot be determined. The price of the replaced product in the previous month is computed on the basis of a short-term price ratio of an identical or similar product calculated on the basis of prices recorded in other outlets of the same territorial unit or other territorial units.

According to the ‘overlap’ method, the prices for replacement product and replaced product are collected at the same time, when both products are available in the outlet.

Hedonic quality adjustment methods is used for the books.

18.5.5. Seasonal items

Not applicable.

Information about HICP and HICP-CT metadata can be found in Statistics Lithuania website.