Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia

Social Statistics Methodology Section

Lāčplēša Street 1, Riga, LV-1301, Latvia

Total usual residence population for the purposes of qualified majority voting in the Council.

Not applicable.

Total usual residence population at national level.

Data on number of usual resident population at the end of the reference period (midnight of 31 December).

Population and Housing Census 2011 resulted in specifying number of resident population of Latvia, and it notably – by 155 thousand or 7% – differed from the population number calculated in line with the information in Register of Natural Persons supervised by the Office of Citizenship and Migration Affairs. As European Union does not have common methodology for estimating population number, Central Statistical Bureau has worked out a new method for more precise estimation of population number in Latvia. The method is based on statistical classification and migration mirror statistics. Statistical classification aims at dividing Latvian population registered within the Register of Natural Persons of Latvia into two classes (groups) – persons actually living in Latvia (usual resident population of Latvia) and persons actually living abroad. The statistical classification model has been developed with the help of logistic regression analysis. Data from administrative data sources are used to determine the statuss. 12-month period is used for migration (actual).

Total usual residence population  transmitted by the national statistical offices to Eurostat in the framework of the Usual Residence Population data collection is used also in other Demographic domains and also household surveys (LFS, EU-SILC).

Person.

Not applicable.

Data are available at national level of geographical detail.

Not applicable.

Not applicable.

Person.

The reference date for population data is the end of the reference period (midnight of 31 December).

Not applicable.

Not applicable.

https://www.csp.gov.lv/en/information-security-and-data-protection.

Not applicable.

https://stat.gov.lv/en/calendar.

https://stat.gov.lv/en/calendar.

Not applicable.

Annual.

National press release on number of population at the end of reference year, vital events (about reference year) and migration (reference year) – next year at the beginning of June.

Annual publication "Demography", "Children in Latvia"; "Statistical Yearbook of Latvia" (publications are also available on Official Statistics Portal).

https://data.stat.gov.lv/pxweb/en/OSP_PUB/START__POP__IR__IRS/IRS010.

Not applicable.

Not applicable.

See the information in the Annex file.

Not applicable.

To evaluate the quality of estimation, individual data from household surveys (LFS, EU-SILC, EHIS), Micro Census 2015 results and Social Security Administration Information System (SSAIS) on persons that have received social benefits from local governments are used. 

Data requested in Art. 4.1 of Reg. 1260/2013.

Not applicable.

Data transmitted as requested in Art. 4.1 of Reg. 1260/2013.

To evaluate the quality of estimation, individual data from household surveys, Micro Census 2015 and Social Security Administration Information System (SSAIS) on persons that have received social benefits from local governments are used. In 2017 and 2018  migration panel surveys are organized.

Not applicable.

Not applicable.

For the purposes of qualified majority voting in the Council, Member States shall provide the Commission (Eurostat) with data on the total population at national level at the reference time, in accordance with Article 2(c), within eight months of the end of the reference year.

Not applicable.

Not applicable.

Not applicable.

The total usual residence population  transmitted by the national statistical offices to Eurostat in the framework of the Usual Residence Population data collection may differ from those available in National Accounts, Labour Force Survey or in the survey on Income and Living Conditions. The difference is given by the population coverage (see metadata specific to each domain).

The total usual residence population  transmitted by the national statistical offices to Eurostat in the framework of the Usual Residence Population data collection may differ from those available in the rest of the Demographic domain. The difference is given by the population definition (see metadata specific to each domain).

Not applicable.

Not applicable.

Not applicable.

Apart from the OCMA data, population statistics is also produced by using other administrative registers available to the CSB. The information meeting the needs of the statistical model is that available starting from 2010. CSB has access to the data in administrative registers managed by the following institutions:

• State Revenue Service (SRS);
• State Social Insurance Agency (SSIA);
• Ministry of Education and Science (MES);
• Administration of Studies and Research (ASR);
• Agricultural Data Centre (ADC);
• Rural Support Service (RSS);
• National Health Service (NHS);
• State Employment Agency (SEA);
• Road Traffic Safety Directorate (RTSD);
• Ministry of Welfare (MW);
• State Chancellery (SC);
• Until 2017 data from higher education institutions (since 2018 – from MES):
  • University of Latvia (UL);
  • Riga Technical University (RTU);
  • Transport and Telecommunications Institute (TSI);
  • Riga Teacher Training and Educational Management Academy (RTTEMA)[1];
  • Baltic International Academy (BIA);
  • Rezekne Academy of Technologies (RTA)[2];
  • Liepaja University (LiepU);
  • Riga Building College (RBC);
  • Riga Technical College (RTC);
  • Malnava College (MC);
  • Riga Medical College of the University of Latvia (RMCUL);
  • Daugavpils Medical College (DMC);
  • Riga 1st Medical College (R1MC);
  • Jāzeps Vītols Latvian Academy of Music (JVLMA);
  • Latvian Academy of Culture (LAC);
  • Latvian College of Culture at the Latvian Academy of Culture (LAC LCC);
  • State Police College (SPC);
  • Red Cross Medical College of Riga Stradiņš University (RSU RCMC);
  • Stockholm School of Economics in Riga (SSE Riga);
  • RISEBA University of Applied Sciences (RISEBA).

The CSB also has information from the Social Security Administration Information System (hereinafter –the SSAIS) on persons who have received social benefits from local governments The information is available from 2012 onwards (in 2012, there are no data on eight municipalities), therefore the SSAIS data are used for specifying population within the age group 18–30 years and for assessing the quality of the model. As of 2017, SSAIS data on people in local government long-term social care institutions and people using night shelter services are available.

The CSB is continuously evaluating additional data sources that might be used for the production of official statistics, and, as a result, agreements were concluded on acquisition of additional administrative data that are suitable for the production of population statistics:

• As of 2015, population is specified as well as registered (declared) place of residence is defined by also using Prison Administration (PA) data on the persons in imprisonment.
• As of 2016, population is specified as well as registered (declared) place of residence is defined by also using SSIA data on persons who are recipients of benefits/ pensions and are in social care institutions.
• As of 2018, the CSB uses data of the Ministry of Welfare on people in social care institutions.
• As of 2018, to specify the number of population the CSB has access also to the information on students from higher education institutions of Latvia (source – MES).
• As of 2019, data of the State Education Quality Service on children not registered with educational institutions are available.
• As of 2020, Maintenance Guarantee Fund data on persons having submitted a claim for maintenance , on persons for whose sustenance maintenance is paid, and on persons in lieu of which maintenance is paid, are available.

Register of Natural Persons – each month.

Other administrative data – once a year.

Individual data from administrative data sources are received electronically (via server) (according to the agreements signed between statistical institution and data providers).

After receiving data from administrative data sources, the number of records, lengh of ID codes (also number of double ID codes) are validated.

The statistical classification model has been developed with the help of logistic regression analysis. The aim of the model is to predict the probability of being a resident for each individual. Necessary probability to be included in the usual resident population differs depending on age and gender. Data from Population Register and administrative data sources are used to determine the statuss. With the help of administrative register data, on each person registered within the Register of Natural Persons there are more than 200 characteristics variables developed.

According to the Register of Natural Persons there were 2.052 million residents at 01.01.2023; according to the CSB estimation – 1.883 million usual residents – the difference was 175 000 or 9.3%. The reason for difference – non-registered migration (residents do not correct information in the register on their usual place of residence). The highest difference was in age groups 19–24.

The future work of the CSB on methodology of population estimate will continue in two directions – improvement of the existing logistic regression model for population estimate and migration flows, as well as work on development of a new methodology (model) of population statistics. The objective is to develop a methodology based on the data of administrative registers, but not directly using the 2011 Census data which become outdated over the years and less informative about the present situation.