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Usually resident population on 1 January (demo_urespop)

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National Reference Metadata in Euro SDMX Metadata Structure (ESMS)

Compiling agency: Italian National Institute of Statistics - ISTAT

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Total usually resident population for the purposes of qualified majority voting in the Council.

The official resident population of Italy at 31th December year t is released by Istat usually at the end of December of the year t+1, in line with the results of Permanent Census. The related data and metadata are usually sent to Eurostat in occasion of the DEMOBAL data collection. A first provisional estimate is also available at the end of March of the year t+1.

In order to assess which specific population groups have to be included in addition to the official resident population of Italy, provided that the conditions of duration of residence are met, the CES Recommendations for the execution of the 2010 Censuses (Geneva, 2006) were examined. The analysis revealed that the following groups of people are not actually covered in the official population of Italy:

a) National military, naval and diplomatic personnel and their families located outside the country (MD)

b) Persons who may be illegal, irregular or undocumented migrants (IL)

c) EU workers with a regular employment contract who are not also present in the population register and who have spent most of the year in Italy (at least 7 months or at least 6 months including December 2022) (AC)

d) non-EU citizens with regular permit of stay (lasting more than one year) who are not also present in the population register (Ukrainian citizens under temporary protection excluded) (AX)

e) Ukrainian citizens under temporary protection who are not also present in the population register (UK)

The other recommended groups of population, to be or not to be included, are already present in the national definition (e.g. Homeless or roofless persons) or not considered (e.g. Tertiary students attending courses abroad).

From the referece year 2024, the component:

a) National military, naval and diplomatic personnel and their families located outside the country (MD)

is no longer available, as the new legislation no longer requires Italians abroad to register with AIRE (Anagrafe degli Italiani Residenti all'Estero). Registration with AIRE remains voluntary.

Then, the Qualified majority voting population (QMVP) is obtained as follows:

QMVP=P+IL+AC+AX+UK

where P is the provisional official resident population of Italy at 31 december.

The estimate of IL is based on the construction of an impact rate by single citizenship (EU excluded), defined as the ratio between the number of people found in a position of illegal/irregular/undocumented residence during the year and the number of people regularly immigrated in the same year and of the same citizenship. The numerator of the ratio is defined by cross-referencing the following data from the Ministry of the Interior: 1) unauthorized persons stopped at the country's border; 2) persons not in possession of regular residence documentation stopped within the country by police authorities and who were ordered to leave the country; 3) persons actually repatriated to their country of origin. The denominator of the ratio comes from official immigration statistics as documented by registrations in the population register. Finally, the estimated number of illegally resident citizens is obtained, for each citizenship, by multiplying the impact rate by the stock of regular residents.

The AC and AX components in equation QMVP, regard groups of foreign citizens not overlapping the previous ones. They include both EU and Non EU citizens, not enrolled in any population register but fulfilling the concept of at least a year of effective/intended usual residence in the Country. The residual of foreign Non EU citizens has been obtained running a record linkage between the Individual List of Resident Citizens maintained at Istat (ANVIS) and the Permits of stay database, while the residual of foreign EU citizens has been obtained running a record linkage between ANVIS and the Archive of the security contributions of workers, maintained at INPS - National Institute of Social Security.

The last component, UK, concerns Ukrainian citizens who are not also on the population register. It was obtained through a record linkage between ANVIS and the residence permit archive.

26 August 2025

QMVP=P+MD*+IL+AC+AX+UK

where P is the official resident population of Italy (provisional, last update March 2025). The other groups of people not actually covered in the official population of Italy are:

  • Illegal, irregular, undocumented people (IL);
  • EU workers with a regular employment contract who are not also present in the population register and who have spent most of the year in Italy (at least 7 months or at least 6 months including December 2023) (AC);
  • Non-EU citizens with regular permit of stay (lasting more than one year) who are not also present in the population register (Ukrainian citizens under temporary protection excluded)(AX)

d) Ukrainian citizens under temporary protection who are not also present in the population register (UK)

(*) Please note that the component:

  • Military and diplomatic personnel located outside national borders (MD);
  • is no longer available as of this year, as the new legislation no longer requires Italians abroad to register with AIRE (Anagrafe degli Italiani Residenti all'Estero). Registration with AIRE remains voluntary.

Person.

 Population register and other administrative sources

Data are available at national level.

The reference date for population data is the end of the reference period (midnight of 31 December).

See point 3.1.

Person.

Data from Istat are generally collected through electronic internet forms.

See point 3.1 Data description.

Annual.

For the purposes of qualified majority voting in the Council, Member States shall provide the Commission (Eurostat) with data on the total population at national level at the reference time, in accordance with Article 2 ( c ), within eight months of the end of the reference year.

Not applicable.

Not applicable.