Population change - Demographic balance and crude rates at national level (demo_gind)

National Reference Metadata in Euro SDMX Metadata Structure (ESMS)

Compiling agency: Office for National Statistics


Eurostat metadata
Reference metadata
1. Contact
2. Metadata update
3. Statistical presentation
4. Unit of measure
5. Reference Period
6. Institutional Mandate
7. Confidentiality
8. Release policy
9. Frequency of dissemination
10. Accessibility and clarity
11. Quality management
12. Relevance
13. Accuracy
14. Timeliness and punctuality
15. Coherence and comparability
16. Cost and Burden
17. Data revision
18. Statistical processing
19. Comment
Related Metadata
Annexes (including footnotes)
 



For any question on data and metadata, please contact: Eurostat user support

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1. Contact Top
1.1. Contact organisation

Office for National Statistics
1.2. Contact organisation unit

Vital Statistics Outputs Branch
1.5. Contact mail address

Vital Statistics Outputs Branch

Office for National Statistics

Segensworth Road

Titchfield

Fareham

Hampshire

England

PO15 5RR


2. Metadata update Top
2.1. Metadata last certified 28/06/2019
2.2. Metadata last posted 28/06/2019
2.3. Metadata last update 28/06/2018


3. Statistical presentation Top
3.1. Data description

First results on the main demographic developments in the year of reference.
3.2. Classification system

Not applicable.
3.3. Coverage - sector

Not applicable.
3.4. Statistical concepts and definitions
3.4.1 Please indicate the definition of:
Population The mother's residence The data deaths
1.Usual Residence Population 2.Legal Residence Population 3.Registered Residence Population 4.Other 1.Usual Residence Population 2.Legal Residence Population 3.Registered Residence Population 4.Other 1.Usual Residence Population 2.Legal Residence Population 3.Registered Residence Population 4.Other
Usual Residence Population.             Live births are all births that occur in the UK, not necessarily to usual residents.         Deaths are all deaths that occur in the UK, not necessarily to usual residents.

 

3.4.2 Please describe the national definition of
Population Live births Deaths Immigrants Emigrants
Population estimates use the usual residence definition. Births that occur and are then registered in the UK to usual residents. Births to UK residents which are registered outside the UK are excluded. Figures for England and Wales are based on births occurring in a calendar year. Figures for Scotland and Northern Ireland are based on births registered in a calendar year. Deaths that occur and are then registered in the UK to usual residents. Deaths to UK residents which are registered outside the UK are excluded. Figures are based on deaths registered in a calendar year. ‘Immigration’ means the action by which a person establishes his or her usual residence in the territory of a Member State for a period that is, or is expected to be, of at least 12 months, having previously been usually resident in another Member State or a third country. ‘Emigration’ means the action by which a person, having previously been usually resident in the territory of a Member State, ceases to have his or her usual residence in that Member State for a period that is, or is expected to be, of at least 12 months.

 

3.4.3 Please provide details of the deviations of the  national definition used from the usual residence definition.
Population Live births Deaths Immigrants Emigrants
Population estimates refer to the usually resident population. This can mean that estimates of population do not necessarily coincide with the number of people to be found in an area at a particular time of the day or year.

For most people, defining where they usually live for the purposes of the census for example, is quite straightforward. For a minority of people the concept of usual residence is however more difficult to define, for example for students, members of the armed forces, prisoners and international migrants.

Specific rules are used for these groups:

  • Higher education students and school children studying away from home are resident at their term-time address.
  • Members of the armed forces are usually resident at the address where they spend most of their time.
  • Prisoners are usually resident in the prison estate if they have a sentence of six months or more.
  • International migrants are usually resident if they intend to stay in England and Wales for more than 12 months.
 Live births are all births that occur and are then registered in the UK to usual residents. Births to UK residents which are registered outside the UK are excluded. Figures for England and Wales are based on births occurring in a calendar year. Figures for Scotland and Northern Ireland are based on births registered in a calendar year. The difference between providing wholly birth occurrence data for the UK in comparison to birth registration data for Scotland and Northern Ireland combined with birth occurrence data for England and Wales varied between0.002% and 0.06% per reference year during the period 2002 and 2012 (ie between 10 and 500 births per year).

It should be noted that in England and Wales where a birth is registered too late to be included in the count for the year of occurrence, it will be included in the count for the following year. There are some births registered too late for this also but the numbers are less than 70 births per year.

The number of births to UK residents which are registered outside the UK is very small and has a negligible impact on statistics

 Deaths are all deaths that occur and are then registered in the UK to usual residents. Deaths to UK residents which are registered outside the UK are excluded. 　

Figures are based on deaths registered in a calendar year. 　

Looking at E&W data for death registrations and death occurrences, the difference between the total death figures for a reference year varied between 0.01% and 0.88% during the period 2005 to 2015 (ie between 30 and 4,700 deaths per year).　

It should be noted that death occurrence figures are extracted at a particular point in time in England and Wales, 10 months after the end of the calendar year. There will be more deaths registered after this point in time which will not be included within any death occurrence dataset. For example, there are currently between 1,700 and 3,800 deaths per year that are not included in England and Wales death occurrence datasets for the calendar years 2005 to 2015 (as of June 2017). Thus, death registration data provides a more complete time series of data. In Scotland and Northern Ireland, a death occurrence dataset is not routinely extracted so death occurrence figures will vary over time depending on when the data is extracted.　

It should be noted that deaths registered in a reference year will include some deaths that occurred in previous year. For example, in the England and Wales, 4% of deaths registered in 2016 were from previous years (around 23,200 deaths). 　

The deaths not included in the registration file are likely to be a mix of those deaths registered in early January for deaths in late December and those deaths referred to a coroner (or Procurators Fiscal in Scotland) ie those considered unexpected, accidental or suspicious. 　

The number of deaths to UK residents which are registered outside the UK is likely to be very small so has a negligible impact on statistics.

 None None  
3.5. Statistical unit

Number of persons.
3.6. Statistical population
In case of survey as data source, please describe the target statistical population (one or more) which the data set refers to
Population Live births Deaths Immigrants Emigrants
Not available. Not availalble Not available The principal data source is the International Passenger Survey. The target statistical population is all travellers entering or leaving the UK through air and sea ports and the Channel Tunnel. The survey covers 90% of travellers entering and leaving the UK. The principal data source is the International Passenger Survey. The target statistical population is all travellers entering or leaving the UK through air and sea ports and the Channel Tunnel. The survey covers 90% of travellers entering and leaving the UK.
3.7. Reference area

Data are available at national level of geographical detail.
3.8. Coverage - Time

MSU - Long-Term International Migration (LTIM) data are available from 1991-2015 on ONS website. LTIM data are supplied to Eurostat for 2008 onwards.　

PEU - population estimates are available from 1838; a consistent series has been supplied to Eurostat from 2012 onwards　

VSOB - A time series for the number of births and deaths is available back to 1887. 　

Population estimates are available from mid1971 to mid-2016 on the ONS website.
3.9. Base period

Not applicable.


4. Unit of measure Top

Counts of statistical units


5. Reference Period Top

The reference date for population data is the end of the reference period (midnight of 31December).
The reference period for vital events data is the calendar year in which the events occurred.  
The reference period for migration flow data is the calendar year in which the migration occurred.


6. Institutional Mandate Top
6.1. Institutional Mandate - legal acts and other agreements

MSU - REGULATION (EC) No 862/2007

VSOB and PEU - Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2007/18/contents
6.2. Institutional Mandate - data sharing

MSU - Not applicable

VSOB - Not available

Population estimates - Not available


7. Confidentiality Top
7.1. Confidentiality - policy

MSU and population estimates - Not applicable

Disclosure control guidance for birth and death statistics for England and Wales can be found at: www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/best-practice/disclosure-control-policy-for-birth-and-death-statistics/index.html
7.2. Confidentiality - data treatment

MSU - None

VSOB - Not available

Population estimates - Not available


8. Release policy Top
8.1. Release calendar

MSU - Final estimates of long-term international migration (LTIM) are published annually in November of the following year. These are supplied to Eurostat to Eurostat in December. For example in December 2013, data for 2012 was supplied.

First release of births and deaths are published in March for Scotland, mid-July for England and Wales and July/August for Northern Ireland,   

Population estimates for the UK  for the year to 30 June are released at the end of the following June.
8.2. Release calendar access

https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
8.3. Release policy - user access

MSU - Data are published on ONS website. The release of the data are advertised on online user fora e.g. Migration Statistics group on JISCMail, StatsUserNet. Each release contains details of future release dates.
Data are released in line with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics
www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/assessment/code-of-practice/


9. Frequency of dissemination Top

MSU - Quarterly (provisional estimates), Annual (final estimates)
VSOB - weekly, monthly, quarterly and annually across the UK
Population estimates - annual


10. Accessibility and clarity Top
10.1. Dissemination format - News release

In recent years there has been no news release for births and deaths data in England and Wales. In Scotland a news release for birth and death figures is normally released in June. In Northern Ireland a news release for final birth and death figures is normally released in July/August.　

There are no news releases for population estimates or migration statistics.
10.2. Dissemination format - Publications

The first release of births and deaths data (final figures) for England and Wales takes place in mid-July. The first release of births and deaths data (final figures) for Scotland will takes place in June from 2018. The first release of births and deaths data (final figures) for Northern Ireland takes place in July/August.　

The UK Population Estimates for mid-year are published with a 12 month lag (thus, estimates for 2015, for example, are published in June 2016).　

The first release of provisional annual migration statistics (year ending December) data is in May.
10.3. Dissemination format - online database

An online database of population estimates from mid-1981 to mid-2016 is available at: https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/query/select/getdatasetbytheme.asp?theme=32 　

An on-line database for deaths data in England and Wales is available (2013-2016): https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/query/select/getdatasetbytheme.asp?theme=73 　

An on-line database for births data in England and Wales is available (2013-2016): https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/query/select/getdatasetbytheme.asp?theme=73　

An on-line database for UK population estimates from 1981 is available: https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/query/select/getdatasetbytheme.asp?theme=32 　

An on-line database not currently available for births, deaths or migration in the UK. Detailed data is provided by Excel files.
10.4. Dissemination format - microdata access

Not applicable.
10.5. Dissemination format - other

Not available
10.6. Documentation on methodology
Please provide a link to national methodology reports and reference metadata files available on-line concerning the supplied data.
Population Live births Deaths Immigrants Emigrants Net migration
Methods Guide is published ONS website at:

Methodology guide for mid-2017 UK population estimates (England and Wales): June 2018

 Births user guide for England and Wales is available at:　

User guide to birth statistics

Methodology information for Scotland is available at:　

Births - Background Information

A user guide for Northern Ireland is available at:　

Registrar General Annual Report Notes and Definitions

 Deaths user guide for England and Wales is available on ONS website at:　

User guide to mortality statistics

Methodology information for Scotland is available at:　

Deaths - Background Information

A user guide for Northern Ireland is available at:　

Registrar General Annual Report Notes and Definitions

 The methodology for long-term international migration estimates is available on ONS website:　

Long-Term International Migration estimates methodology

 The methodology for long-term international migration estimates is available on ONS website:

Long-Term International Migration estimates methodology

 The methodology for long-term international migration estimates is available on ONS website:　

Long-Term International Migration estimates methodology
10.7. Quality management - documentation

Quality and Methodology document for population estimates published at:　https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/qmis/annualmidyearpopulationestimatesqmi　

Quality and Methodology document for births in England and Wales published at:　http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/qmis/birthsqmi　

Quality assessment for births in Scotland published at: http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/vital-events/quality-data-obtained-from-registration-of-ve.pdf　

Quality assessment for births in Northern Ireland published at:　https://www.nisra.gov.uk/sites/nisra.gov.uk/files/publications/Northern_Ireland_Birth_Statistics_Quality_Assessment_0.pdf

Quality and Methodology document for deaths England and Wales published at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/qmis/mortalitystatisticsinenglandandwalesqmi　

Quality and Methodology document for deaths Northern Ireland published at:　https://www.nisra.gov.uk/sites/nisra.gov.uk/files/publications/Northern_Ireland_Death_Statistics_Quality_Assessment_0.pdf　

Quality assessment for Deaths in Scotland published at:　http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/deaths/deaths-background-information/quality-of-nrs-data-on-deaths　

Quality and Methodology document for Abortions in England and Wales published at: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/conceptionandfertilityrates/methodologies/userguidetoconceptionstatistics　

Quality and Methodology document for Abortions in Northern Ireland published at: https://www.health-ni.gov.uk/articles/termination-pregnancy

Quality and Methodology document for Abortions in Scotland published at: https://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/archive/assessment/assessment/assessment-reports/assessment-report-121---statistics-on-sexual-health-in-scotland.pdf

Quality and Methodology document for Marriages in England and Wales published at:　https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/marriagecohabitationandcivilpartnerships/methodologies/marriagesinenglandandwalesqmi　

Quality and Methodology document for Marriages in Northern Ireland published at:　https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/vital-statistics-quality-assurance-procedures　

Quality and Methodology document for Marriages in Scotland published at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-background-information/quality-of-national-records-of-scotland-nrs-data-on-vital-events　

Quality and Methodology document for Divorces in England and Wales published at: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/divorce/methodologies/divorcesinenglandandwalesqmi　

Quality and Methodology document for Divorces in Northern Ireland published at: https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/vital-statistics-quality-assurance-procedures　

Quality and Methodology document for Divorces in Scotland published at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-background-information/quality-of-national-records-of-scotland-nrs-data-on-vital-events　

Quality and Methodology document for international migration:　https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/methodologies/longterminternationalmigrationqmi


11. Quality management Top
11.1. Quality assurance

Quality and Methodology Information report for population estimates published at:　https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/qmis/annualmidyearpopulationestimatesqmi 　

Quality and Methodology Information report for births in England and Wales published at:　http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/qmis/birthsqmi　

Quality assessment for births in Northern Ireland published at:　https://www.nisra.gov.uk/sites/nisra.gov.uk/files/publications/Northern_Ireland_Birth_Statistics_Quality_Assessment_0.pdf

Quality and Methodology Information report for deaths in England and Wales published at:　http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/qmis/mortalitystatisticsinenglandandwalesqmi　

Quality assessment for deaths in Northern Ireland published at:　https://www.nisra.gov.uk/sites/nisra.gov.uk/files/publications/Northern_Ireland_Death_Statistics_Quality_Assessment_0.pdf

Quality documentation for births, deaths,marriages and divorces in Scotland published at:　http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-background-information/quality-of-national-records-of-scotland-nrs-data-on-vital-events 　

Quality and Methodology document for international migration:　https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/methodologies/longterminternationalmigrationqmi
11.2. Quality management - assessment

Quality and Methodology Information report for population estimates published at:　https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/qmis/annualmidyearpopulationestimatesqmi　

Quality and Methodology Information report for births in England and Wales published at:　http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/qmis/birthsqmi　

Quality assessment for births in Northern Ireland published at:　https://www.nisra.gov.uk/sites/nisra.gov.uk/files/publications/Northern_Ireland_Birth_Statistics_Quality_Assessment_0.pdf

Quality and Methodology Information report for deaths in England and Wales published at:　http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/qmis/mortalitystatisticsinenglandandwalesqmi　

Quality assessment for deaths in Northern Ireland published at:　https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/vital-statistics-quality-assurance-procedures　

Quality documentation for births and deaths in Scotland published at:　http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-background-information/quality-of-national-records-of-scotland-nrs-data-on-vital-events 　

Quality and Methodology Information report for long-term international migration estimates published at: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/qmis/longtermmigrationindicatorssuiteqmi


12. Relevance Top
12.1. Relevance - User Needs

Not available.
12.2. Relevance - User Satisfaction

ONS carries out customer satisfaction surveys on an annual basis. Feedback is requested from users from each release of data and on emails to customers. In addition, ONS holds regular 'key account' meetings with key user organisations to ensure that the quality and relevance of outputs is maintained.
12.3. Completeness

Quality and Methodology Information report for population estimates published at:　https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/qmis/annualmidyearpopulationestimatesqmi　

Quality and Methodology Information report for births in England and Wales published at:　http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/qmis/birthsqmi　

Quality assessment for births in Northern Ireland published at:　https://www.nisra.gov.uk/sites/nisra.gov.uk/files/publications/Northern_Ireland_Birth_Statistics_Quality_Assessment_0.pdf

Quality and Methodology Information report for deaths in England and Wales published at:　http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/qmis/mortalitystatisticsinenglandandwalesqmi　

Quality assessment for deaths in Northern Ireland published at:　https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/vital-statistics-quality-assurance-procedures　

Quality documentation for births and deaths in Scotland published at:　http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-background-information/quality-of-national-records-of-scotland-nrs-data-on-vital-events 　

Quality and Methodology Information report for long-term international migration estimates published at:　https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/qmis/longtermmigrationindicatorssuiteqmi


13. Accuracy Top
13.1. Accuracy - overall
Please report on the reasons for any unreliability of the data on:
Population Live births Deaths Immigrants Emigrants Net migration

Quality and Methodology Information is published on the ONS website at:　

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/qmis/annualmidyearpopulationestimatesqmi　

Uncertainty estimates provide users with further information about the quality of the mid-2002 to mid-2015 population estimates:　

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/methodologies/measuresofstatisticaluncertaintysummary

Quality and Methodology Information for England and Wales published at:　

http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/qmis/birthsqmi　

Quality assessment for Northern Ireland published at:　

https://www.nisra.gov.uk/sites/nisra.gov.uk/files/publications/Northern_Ireland_Birth_Statistics_Quality_Assessment_0.pdf

Quality documentation for Scotland published at:　

http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-background-information/quality-of-national-records-of-scotland-nrs-data-on-vital-events

Quality and Methodology document for England and Wales published at:　

http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/qmis/mortalitystatisticsinenglandandwalesqmi　

Quality assessment for Northern Ireland published at:　

https://www.nisra.gov.uk/sites/nisra.gov.uk/files/publications/Northern_Ireland_Death_Statistics_Quality_Assessment_0.pdf

Quality documentation for Scotland published at:　

http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-background-information/quality-of-national-records-of-scotland-nrs-data-on-vital-events

  

Quality and Methodology Information report for long-term international migration estimates published at:

http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/qmis/longtermmigrationindicatorssuiteqmi

Quality and Methodology Information report for long-term international migration estimates published at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/qmis/longtermmigrationindicatorssuiteqmi

Quality and Methodology Information report for long-term international migration estimates published

http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/qmis/longtermmigrationindicatorssuiteqmi
13.2. Sampling error
In case of survey as data source, please provide information on the part of the difference between a population value and an estimate thereof, derived from a random sample, which is due to the fact that only a subset of the population is enumerated.
Population Live births Deaths Immigrants Emigrants
Uncertainty estimates provide users with further information about the effects of sampling in the datasources used and therefore the quality of the mid-2002 to mid-2015 population estimates:　

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/methodologies/measuresofstatisticaluncertaintysummary

 Not available Not available IPS Immigration estimates are subject to sampling error and are published alongside confidence intervals to give user's an indication of the size of the error. Typically annual immigration is around 600,000 with a margin of error (representing the 95% confidence interval) of +/- 33,000.　

Estimates provided to Eurostat do not have confidence intervals attached.

 IPS Emigration estimates are subject to sampling error and are published alongside confidence intervals to give user's an indication of the size of the error. Typically annual immigration is around 300,000 with a margin of error (representing the 95% confidence interval) of +/- 20,000.　

Estimates provided to Eurostat do not have confidence intervals attached.
13.3. Non-sampling error
In case of survey as data source, please provide information on the error in survey estimates which cannot be attributed to sampling fluctuations.
Population Live births Deaths Immigrants Emigrants
There is no method for quantifying the non-sampling error in the datasets that are used to create population estimates; however information on these types of issues can be found in the Population Estimates Quality Tools: 　

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesqualitytools 　

and in the Quality and Methodology Information report:　

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/qmis/annualmidyearpopulationestimatesqmi

 Not availalbe Not availalbe There is no method for quantifying the error associated with the non-survey components of LTIM, which are unlikely to be random. Since the majority of the estimate is based on IPS data, LTIM estimates are published alongside IPS confidence intervals to give users an indication of the robustness of the estimate. 　

The confidence intervals do not take into account non-sampling error such as non-response bias and measurement error which cannot be quantified. 　

Non-response bias would be introduced if those who choose to respond to the survey have different characteristics to those who do not; or, if at peak times sampled passengers do not complete an IPS questionnaire because the number of interviewers is insufficient to cope with the high volume of passengers. The weighting applied to the estimates on total passenger flows will account for these non-contacts, but if their migration characteristics are different in some way then non-response bias would occur. Measurement error would be introduced, for example, if respondents provide incorrect information to the IPS interviewers.

 There is no method for quantifying the error associated with the non-survey components of LTIM, which are unlikely to be random. Since the majority of the estimate is based on IPS data, LTIM estimates are published alongside IPS confidence intervals to give users an indication of the robustness of the estimate. 　

The confidence intervals do not take into account non-sampling error such as non-response bias and measurement error which cannot be quantified.　

Non-response bias would be introduced if those who choose to respond to the survey have different characteristics to those who do not; or, if at peak times sampled passengers do not complete an IPS questionnaire because the number of interviewers is insufficient to cope with the high volume of passengers. The weighting applied to the estimates on total passenger flows will account for these non-contacts, but if their migration characteristics are different in some way then non-response bias would occur. Measurement error would be introduced, for example, if respondents provide incorrect information to the IPS interviewers.


14. Timeliness and punctuality Top
14.1. Timeliness

MSU - Provisional LTIM estimates are published 5 months after the reference period. Final LTIM are published 11 months after the reference data. Eurostat estimates are provided 12 months after the reference date.　

Births and deaths are published 6-9 months after the reference period　

Population estimates are published just less than one year after the 30th June reference period
14.2. Punctuality

As requested by Eurostat's annual data collections.


15. Coherence and comparability Top
15.1. Comparability - geographical

For population estimates, although there are small differences in methods between the constituent countries of the UK, the estimates are stated to be comparable for areas within the UK. A report on the consistency of methods used for population statistics across UK countries is available: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/methodologies/consistencyofmethodsusedforpopulationstatisticsacrossukcountries　

Birth statistics for England and Wales are based on the number of births occurring in the year, while Scotland and Northern Ireland statistics relate to the number of births registered in the year. In England and Wales where a birth is registered too late to be included in the count for the year of occurrence, it will be included in the count for the following year. The differences between reporting occurrences and registrations are relatively minor and figures are broadly comparable. 　

Death statistics are based on the number of deaths registered in the year across the UK so are comparable.　

For migration, estimates are comparable across the UK countries.
15.2. Comparability - over time
Please provide information on the length of comparable time series (indicate the first reference year for which data are availble), reference periods at which series occur, the reasons for the breaks and treatments of them.
Population Live births Deaths Immigrants Emigrants
Definitions for population estimates have remained consistent since 2002, and estimates from 2002-2016 are all based on both the 2001 and the 2011 Census, thus allowing comparison over time. A time series for the number of  births is available back to 1887. The length of the time series available for more detailed breakdowns is dependent on which variables are contained in the table. A time series for the number of  deaths is available back to 1887. The length of the time series available for more detailed breakdowns is dependent on which variables are contained in the table. LTIM - Available from 1991 to 2015 (final data)

Data supplied to Eurostat for 2008 to 2015 are comparable.

More information on changes and comparability over time: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/methodologies/longterminternationalmigrationestimatesmethodology

 LTIM - Available from 1991 to 2015 (final data)

Data supplied to Eurostat for 2008 to 2015 are comparable.

More information on changes and comparability over time:https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/methodologies/longterminternationalmigrationestimatesmethodology
15.3. Coherence - cross domain

Not available.
15.4. Coherence - internal

The current population estimates will be different from that calculated by applying the official births, deaths and migration figures to the previous year's estimates for the following reasons:
· movements of (UK or other) Armed Forces into and out of the UK are counted separately and applied to the population estimates as an adjustment rather than through international migration.
· births and deaths used in the population estimates are on an occurrence rather than a registration basis (the latter is the basis used in most deaths statistics across UK while births in Scotland and Northern Ireland are on a registration basis).
· the estimate of the international migration component of population change uses some provisional data and will thus be slightly different to the final official international migration estimates.


16. Cost and Burden Top

Not available


17. Data revision Top
17.1. Data revision - policy

The Revision Policy is published at: www.ons.gov.uk/methodology/methodologytopicsandstatisticalconcepts/revisions/revisionspoliciesforpopulationstatistics

The revision policy for vital events in Northern Ireland is published at:https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/vital-statistics-documentation

The revision policy for Scotland (NRS) is published at:http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/about-our-statistics/revisions-and-corrections
17.2. Data revision - practice

In 2012/13 the UK population estimates for 2002-2010 were rebased to the results of the 2011 Census. In March 2018 further improvements to methods and updated datasets were used to revise the population estimates for mid-2012 to mid-2016: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/bulletins/annualmidyearpopulationestimates/mid2012tomid2016 　

Rebased population estimates are used to revise mortality and fertility rates.


18. Statistical processing Top
18.1. Source data
Please report on the data sources used for the first reference year and inform of any changes thereto,  to produce:
Population Live births Deaths Immigrants Emigrants
For population estimates the main sources are:

2011 Census Results

Births data

Deaths data

Long-Term International Migration

Estimates of Migration within the UK

Armed forces data

Prison population data

A range of other data sources are used to improve the sub-national distribution of estimated migration.

 Birth statistics are based on information collected when a birth is registered   Mortality statistics are based on the information collected when a death is registered Main data sources are:

International Passenger Survey (ONS)

Asylum seeker flows, non-asylum enforced removals, and people resettled under various resettlement schemes (Home Office)

Northern Ireland Health card data (NISRA)

Labour Force Survey (ONS - calibration only)

 Main data sources are:

International Passenger Survey (ONS)

Asylum seeker flows, non-asylum enforced removals, and people resettled under various resettlement schemes (Home Office)

Northern Ireland Health card data (NISRA)
18.2. Frequency of data collection

Population estimates data are collected annually.

Data from birth and death registrations for England and Wales is provided on a daily basis to ONS. Births and deaths data from Scotland and Northern Ireland is provided on annual basis to ONS.

IPS data is collected on an ongoing basis and supplied for producing migration estimates on a quarterly basis.

Asylum seeker data and Health card data supplied on a quarterly basis.
18.3. Data collection

Data collection is not carried out directly. Estimates of components of population change are received from other teams within ONS.

Births and deaths data is provided by register offices.

Migration data is received from other teams within ONS, NISRA and the Home Office.
18.4. Data validation

Estimates of components of population change are received from other teams within ONS. Basic checks of allowable values and comparison with previous years are applied. Descriptions of how each administrative data source is quality assured can be found in the quality assurance of administrative data listed in the 'relevance' section here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/qmis/annualmidyearpopulationestimatesqmi 　

Births and deaths data is provided by register offices. Checks of completeness, allowable values, comparison with previous years and imputation is carried out where necessary.　

Migration data is received from other teams within ONS, NISRA and the Home Office. Checks of completeness and allowable values are carried out and imputation applied where necessary.
18.5. Data compilation

Population Estimates are compiled by applying components of change to start-year population. Estimation of sex and age of migration data is made at local level. Estimation of place of usual residence is made at local level for armed forces based on 2011 Census results.

Births and deaths data are coded, edited or imputed where necessary. Child deaths are linked with birth registrations using NHS number in England and Wales.

For migration data, annual record editing is carried out where necessary. Some imputation of variables from best match donor within input stream in the quarter. Data processing and estimation occur within an internally developed computer system. Output reports are checked and include charts and logic to check balances produced. Totals in output spreadsheets are checked.
18.6. Adjustment

No statistical adjustment is carried out to adjust population definitions to standard definitions. However, the method of calculating 1 January populations from the mid-year populations calculated as standard means that components of change (migration and natural change), which are supplied on a true calendar year basis, do not correspond precisely with the change in population estimates.


19. Comment Top

Not available


Related metadata Top


Annexes Top