In order to estimate the potential impact of the EU’s climate and energy targets for 2030, the Commission has developed a group of scenarios called the EUCO scenarios.
The most recent scenario is called the EUCO3232.5 and models the impact of achieving an energy efficiency target of 32.5% and a renewable energy target of 32%, as agreed in the Clean energy for all Europeans package. This scenario was used to support the Commission’s June 2019 assessment of the draft national energy and climate plans (NECPs), submitted by Member States.
The key projections are presented in the technical report on EUCO3232.5 scenario (June 2019).
EUCO27 and EUCO30
In 2016, two policy scenarios were launched, the EUC027 and the EUCO30 which depict models for an energy efficiency target of 27% and 30%, respectively –the targets previously agreed by the European Council in 2014.
These scenarios were used as input for the different impact assessments and other documents which accompanied a number of Commission legislative proposals, notably for the Clean energy for all Europeans package in November 2016.
The EUCO+ scenarios, which model the achievement of energy efficiency targets above 30% in 2030, and the EUCO3030 sensitivity analysis, which combined a 30% renewable share in 2030 with an energy efficiency target of 30%, were also prepared in 2016. They were used in the Impact Assessment accompanying the proposal for the revised Energy Efficiency Directive.
These scenarios were presented in the technical report on EUCO scenarios - PRIMES model results (January 2017).
GEM-E3 and E3ME model results
For the impact assessment accompanying the proposal for revising the renewable energy directive and the impact assessment accompanying the proposal for the revised energy efficiency directive, another modelling exercise was undertaken to demonstrate the impact of the scenarios at a macro-economic level, like GDP growth and employment. It used two different models and the technical reports were published in December 2016:
- Technical report on EUCO scenarios - GEM-E3 model results
- Technical report on EUCO scenarios - E3ME model results )
- Impact Assessment (SWD(2016)418) accompanying the proposal for revising the Renewable Energy Directive
- Impact Assessment (SWD(2016)405) accompanying the proposal for the revised Energy Efficiency Directive
- Impact Assessment (SWD(2016)247) accompanying the proposal for an Effort Sharing Regulation
- Staff Working Document (SWD(2016)244) accompanying the Communication A European Strategy for Low-Emission Mobilit
- Proposal for a Regulation on binding annual greenhouse gas emission reduction by Member States (COM(2016)482)
- A European Strategy for Low-Emission Mobility (COM(2016)501)
- Proposal for a Directive on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable resources (recast) (COM(2016)767)
- Proposal for a directive amending Directive 2012/27/EU on energy efficiency COM(2016) 761