EU Reference Scenario 2016

The EU Reference Scenario is one of the European Commission's key analysis tools in the areas of energy, transport and climate action. It allows policy-makers to analyse the long-term economic, energy, climate and transport outlook based on the current policy framework.

It is not designed as a forecast of what is likely to happen in the future, but it provides a benchmark against which new policy proposals can be assessed. National experts from all EU countries actively participate in its preparation.

Energy modelling - interactive graphs

Explore the EU Reference Scenario 2016 with interactive graphs.

Interactive graphs - reference scenario

The main outputs from the EU Reference Scenario 2016 are

The European Commission does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in these interactive graphs, developed by external contractors, nor does it accept responsibility for any use made thereof. Neither the Commission nor any person acting on the Commission’s behalf may be held responsible for the use which may be made of the information contained therein.

Modelling framework for the EU Reference Scenario

The EU Reference Scenario is developed by a consortium led by the National Technical University of Athens (E3MLab). 

It uses the PRIMES model for energy and CO2 projections (including the PRIMES-TREMOVE and PRIMES-TAPEM for the transport sector and PRIMES Biomass for biomass supply), the GAINS model for non-CO2 greenhouse gas projections and the GLOBIOM/G4M models for emissions and greenhouse gas removals related to land use, land use change and forestry. It also uses the GEM-E3 model which projects macroeconomic developments, the PROMETHEUS model which projects world energy prices and the CAPRI model which projects changes in agricultural activities.

Figure: Reference scenario modelling framework

Previous editions of the Reference Scenario