The European Commissions energy policy decisions are underpinned by thorough analyses and impact assessments. Mathematical models and tools are used to assess policies' effectiveness and evaluate the potential consequences of policy proposals.
EU Reference Scenario 2016
The EU Reference Scenario is one of the European Commission's key analysis tools in the areas of energy, transport and climate action. It allows policy-makers to analyse the long-term economic, energy, climate and transport outlook based on the current policy framework. It is not designed as a forecast of what is likely to happen in the future, but it provides a benchmark against which new policy proposals can be assessed. National experts from all EU countries actively participate in its preparation.
Explore the latest EU Reference Scenario 2016, its interactive graphs, main outputs, previous editions and more.
As part of the European Commission's impact assessment work in 2016, two core EUCO policy scenarios, EUCO27 and EUCO30, were created using the PRIMES model (2013-2014), with the EU Reference Scenario 2016 as a starting point. They model the achievement of the 2030 climate and energy targets as agreed by the European Council in 2014 (the first scenario with a 27% energy efficiency target and the second with a 30% energy efficiency target).
METIS is a mathematical model providing analysis of the European energy system for electricity, gas and heat. It simulates the operation of energy systems and markets on an hourly basis over a year, while also factoring in uncertainties like weather variations.
A series of ten studies on macroeconomic modelling were carried out to improve understanding and modelling of the links between EU energy-related policies and macroeconomic development.
Other modelling activities
The Commission's Joint Research Centre is developing an EU energy, transport and greenhouse gas emissions tool called POTEnCIA. The JRC is also producing a Global Energy and Climate Outlook using the global energy model POLES-JRC.