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The Economic Adjustment Programme for Portugal. Fifth review – Summer 2012

Author(s): European Commission

The Economic Adjustment Programme for Portugal. Fifth review – Summer 2012pdf(4 MB) Choose translations of the previous link 

Summary for non-specialistspdf(24 kB) Choose translations of the previous link 

A joint Commission/ECB/IMF mission met with the Portuguese authorities in Lisbon from 28 August to 11 September 2012 to assess compliance with the terms and conditions of the Portuguese Adjustment Programme. This report provides an assessment of compliance and summarises the findings of the mission.

Raising competitiveness, employment and the growth potential of the economy remains of crucial importance for the success of the Programme. Overall, Programme implementation remains solid, but important risks and challenges are lying ahead. The revised fiscal adjustment path with new deficit targets of 5% of GDP in 2012, 4.5% of GDP in 2013 and 2.5% of GPD in 2014, coupled with additional fiscal measures planned for 2013-2014 should keep fiscal consolidation on track. But risks and challenges derive from several areas. The macro-economic outlook may be affected by the continued tensions in the euro area. Fiscal adjustment has moved more strongly towards the revenue side in the short run. In a forward-looking perspective, the composition of consolidation measures should be rebalanced towards the expenditure side which is more conducive to medium-term growth. Finally, consensus-building is paramount for a successful implementation of the Programme.

The Programme's financing envelope remains sufficient. Approval of the conclusions of this review will allow the disbursement of EUR 4.3 billion (EUR 2.8 billion by the EU and EUR 1.5 billion by the IMF) in October 2012, bringing the total amount disbursed to Portugal to EUR 61.4 billion of the overall Programme envelope amounting to EUR 78 billion.

(European Economy. Occasional Papers 117. October 2012. Brussels. Paper and internet. 106pp. )

KC-AH-12-117-EN-N (online)
ISBN 978-92-79-22916-9 (online)
doi: 10.2765/24383 (online)

JEL classification: E61, E62, E66, F16, F32, F34, H1, H2, H5, H6, H7, H8

Occasional Papers are written by the staff of the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, or by experts working in association with them. The Papers are intended to increase awareness of the technical work being done by staff and cover a wide spectrum of subjects. Views expressed in unofficial documents do not necessarily reflect the official views of the European Commission.