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The 2015 Ageing Report: Underlying Assumptions and Projection Methodologies

Author(s): European Commission (DG ECFIN) and the Economic Policy Committee (AWG)

The 2015 Ageing Report: Underlying Assumptions and Projection Methodologiespdf(15 MB) Choose translations of the previous link 

In 2012, the ECOFIN Council asked the Economic Policy Committee (EPC) to update its age-related expenditure projections by the autumn of 2014, to take into account new population projections by Eurostat.

The long-term, age-related expenditure projections provide an indication of the timing and scale of the potential economic effects to be expected as Europe’s populations age. The projections show where (in which countries), when, and to what extent ageing pressures will accelerate as the baby-boom generation retires and average life spans in the EU increase. Hence, the updated projections of age-related expenditure and the associated sustainability assessments will provide insight on both the economic impact of ageing and the risks to the long-term sustainability of Member States’ public finances.

This report, the first of two, describes the underlying macroeconomic assumptions and projection methodologies for all Member States.

A second report, to be presented to the ECOFIN Council in May 2015, will draw on this analysis to calculate the age-related expenditures associated with pensions, health care, long-term care, education and unemployment transfers.


(European Economy 8. November 2014. Brussels. PDF. 448pp. Tab. Graph. Ann. Free.)

KC-AR-14-008-EN-N (online)KC-AR-14-008-EN-C (print)
ISBN 978-92-79-35351-2 (online)ISBN 978-92-79-36013-8 (print)
doi: 10.2765/76255 (online)doi: 10.2765/77578 (print)

JEL classification: J10, J11, J18, J21, J26, I0, O4, H55