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China’s External Surplus: Simulations with a Global Macroeconomic Model

Author(s): Lukas Vogel, European Commission

China’s External Surplus: Simulations with a Global Macroeconomic Modelpdf(803 kB) Choose translations of the previous link 

Summary for non-specialistspdf(77 kB) Choose translations of the previous link 

The paper analyses China's external position in a multi-region macroeconomic model of the world economy. The model includes a portfolio structure and Forex intervention to proxy net/gross and government/non-government foreign asset positions, capital controls and exchange rate management in China. The selected set of transition and globalisation shocks replicates China's external position well, suggesting that it reflects capital exports driven by shifts in domestic saving supply, rather than shifts in foreign saving demand. The simulations also highlight the importance of effective capital controls for the viability of China's exchange rate management. Finally, the analysis suggests that enhanced flexibility of the RMB exchange rate could reduce China's net creditor position.

(European Economy. Economic Papers 430. December 2010. Brussels. PDF. 37pp. Tab. Graph. Bibliogr. Free.)

KC-AI-10-430-EN-N (online)
ISBN 978-92-79-14916-0 (online)
ISSN 1725-3195 (online)
doi: 10.2765/445822 (online)

JEL classification: F30, F40

Economic Papers are written by the staff of the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, or by experts working in association with them. The Papers are intended to increase awareness of the technical work being done by staff and to seek comments and suggestions for further analysis. The views expressed are the author’s alone and do not necessarily correspond to those of the European Commission.

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