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Projecting future health care expenditure at European level: drivers, methodology and main results.

Author(s): Bartosz Przywara, European Commission

Projecting future health care expenditure at european level: drivers, methodology and main resultspdf(907 kB) Choose translations of the previous link 

Summary for non-specialistspdf(55 kB) Choose translations of the previous link 

To correctly assess the demography-related risks facing public finances in the EU over the next couple of decades and establish adequate policy responses to the demographic, social and economic developments, it is essential to devise a reliable method to estimate future health care expenditure. To tackle this issue, the European Commission and the Economic Policy Committee projected future public health care expenditure in all EU Member States over the period 2007-2060. A unique internationally comparable database has been established and a model built allowing to project health care spending in a common, coherent framework of macroeconomic variables. The model incorporates the most recent developments in demography and epidemiology and draws on new insights from health economics, allowing the comparison of the challenges facing both individual countries' health care systems and European society in its entirety.

(European Economy. Economic Papers 417. July 2010. Brussels. PDF. 31pp. Tab. Graph. Bibliogr. Free.)

KC-AI-10-417-EN-N (online)
ISBN 978-92-79-14903-0 (online)
ISSN 1725-3187 (online)
doi: 10.2765/42844 (online)

JEL classification: H51, I18, J11, J14

Economic Papers are written by the staff of the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, or by experts working in association with them. The Papers are intended to increase awareness of the technical work being done by staff and to seek comments and suggestions for further analysis. The views expressed are the author’s alone and do not necessarily correspond to those of the European Commission.

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