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397- Using a DSGE model to look at the recent boom-bust cycle in the US

Author(s): Marco Ratto, Werner Roeger and Jan in 't Veld-European Commission

Using a DSGE model to look at the recent boom-bust cycle in the USpdf(2 MB) Choose translations of the previous link 

Summary for non-specialistspdf(104 kB) Choose translations of the previous link 

This paper presents a DSGE model with residential investment and credit-constrained households estimated with US data over the period 1980Q1-2008Q4. In order to better understand speculative movements of house prices, we model land as an exhaustible resource, implying that house prices have asset market characteristics.

We conduct an event study for the US over the period 1999Q1-2008Q4 which has been characterised by a housing boom and bust and examine which shocks have contributed to the evolution of GDP and its components over this period. We devote special attention to the contribution of non-fundamental shocks to asset prices over this episode.

(European Economy. Economic Papers 397. January 2010. Brussels. PDF. 79pp. Free.)

KC-AI-09-397-EN-N (online)
ISBN 978-92-79-14397-7 (online)
ISSN 1725-3187 (online)

JEL classification: C51, E21, E22, E52

Economic Papers are written by the staff of the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, or by experts working in association with them. The Papers are intended to increase awareness of the technical work being done by staff and to seek comments and suggestions for further analysis. The views expressed are the author’s alone and do not necessarily correspond to those of the European Commission.

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