Carbon leakage

The revised EU ETS Directive sets out detailed criteria for how to determine the carbon leakage list. The assessment was done in two steps. The carbon leakage list reflects the result of these first- and second-level assessments. As a starting point, the Commission assessed 245 industrial sectors classified under the 'Mining and quarrying' and 'Manufacturing' sections of the NACE statistical classification of economic activities. These two sections cover all industrial sectors whose activities are classified in the EU ETS.

Published in May 2018, the preliminary carbon leakage list presented the results of the first-level assessment. This includes the assessment of NACE-4 sectors directly qualifying for the list as their respective carbon leakage indicator (the sector’s trade intensity multiplied by its emissions intensity) was above the 0.2 threshold. Furthermore, the preliminary carbon leakage list identified the sectors and sub-sectors eligible to apply for the second-level assessment.

44 sectors passed the first-level assessment and additional 19 sectors and sub-sectors were included on the list after the second-level assessment. All second-level assessments, including quantitative disaggregated and qualitative assessments, were finalised in September 2018.

As a result, the final carbon leakage list identifies 63 sectors and sub-sectors (covering about 96% of industrial emissions^*) that have satisfied the criteria laid down in the revised EU ETS Directive.

Throughout the entire process, the Commission carried out intensive stakeholder consultations, including an online consultation, dedicated stakeholder workshops, discussions in the Expert Group on climate change policy and numerous bilateral meetings with sectors concerned.

_{* 98% of industrial emissions covered by the carbon leakage list 2015-2020.}

There is a limited and declining amount of free allowances available to industries at highest risk of carbon leakage. Therefore a strict approach on the carbon leakage assessments was needed to avoid a higher free allocation demand which could ultimately require the application of a cross-sectoral correction factor ('CSCF'), i.e. a uniform cut of free allowances for all sectors. The second-level assessment is discussed in detail in the Impact Assessment accompanying the Commission decision.

The revised EU ETS Directive contains provisions that result in a shorter carbon leakage list in comparison with the previous ones while covering similar amount of industrial emissions. This ensures a more focused approach so the sectors most exposed to the risk of carbon leakage will receive an adequate number of free allowances.

The main reason for a shorter carbon leakage list is a changed methodology: the methodology in the last two carbon leakage lists (valid for 2013-14 and 2015-20) resulted in a high number of eligible sectors that were shortlisted due to trade intensity criterion only, while not being carbon intensive. This time, the combined indicator of trade intensity and emission intensity results in exclusion of many sectors that are trade-intensive only.

175 sectors are on the second carbon leakage list which is valid until the end of 2020.  63 sectors (and sub-sectors) are on the list for phase 4 of the EU ETS. All the (sub)sectors including those falling off the list had a possibility to request bilateral discussions with DG CLIMA on all the parameters and particularities of the assessment.

The Commission carried out the assessments within the parameters set by the co-legislators, and used the most accurate and official data available, namely Eurostat statistics on economic indicators and trade, GHG emissions data from the EU ETS emissions registry (the EU Transaction Log) and Member State data on electricity consumption per industry sectors.

As part of the procedure, the online feedback on the draft delegated Decision was collected between 5 December 2018 and 2 January 2019 on the Better Regulation portal. Seven contributions were provided, all from companies and business organisations.

After analysing the opinions received, the Commission has decided to maintain the text of the delegated Decision considering that all the issues raised have already been discussed with industry stakeholders and in the Climate Change Policy Expert Group throughout the legislative process and no new arguments or information have been put forward.

The competent Commission services have attached much importance to consulting the stakeholders while establishing the first list of carbon leakage sectors, which has been agreed end of 2009. Several stakeholder meetings with industry, NGOs, academics and Member States took place in 2009 in the run-up to producing the list. The meeting documents and reports are available on the website of DG Climate Action.

The stakeholders have been able to provide full input to the process and to express opinions on the analysis that led to the decisions on which sectors to include on the carbon leakage list.

Following the Communication on a policy framework for climate and energy in the period from 2020 to 2030, in which it was stated that the existing policy framework for those industrial sectors most at risk of carbon leakage should be maintained until the end of trading in phase 3, the Commission has prepared a new carbon leakage list. The list was adopted on 27 October 2014, and shall be applicable from 2015 to 2019.

For the new Decision, the Commission has carried out the assessment pursuant to Article 10a(15), (16) and (17) of the ETS Directive.

Regarding the level of disaggregation used in the carbon leakage assessment, a common methodology is essential to provide a fair and consistent approach and retain a level playing field. This was followed in a transparent manner by the Commission.

As a rule, the assessment was performed at NACE 4 level, since this gives the Commission the best information on which to base its decisions, and allow the measures to avoid carbon leakage to be targeted most effectively.

For some sectors or sub-sectors which were not above the specific threshold values defined by the Directive above which sectors are deemed at a significant risk of carbon leakage, the Commission made a more disaggregated analysis, including at a product level. A few of those subsectors/products have also been deemed exposed to a significant risk of carbon leakage.

European co-legislators (Council and European Parliament) decided that the Commission should determine the first list by the end of December 2009, and every five years thereafter. This means that the first list is used for the free allocation of allowances for the years 2013 and 2014. The second carbon leakage list, adopted on 27 October 2014, will be used for the free allocation in the period 2015-2019.

The Commission also may, at its own initiative or at the request of a Member State, every year add a sector or subsector to the list if it can be demonstrated, in an analytical report, that this sector or subsector satisfies the criteria laid down in the directive. This possibility was already used in 2011, when several sectors were added to the first list by Decision 2011/745/EU.

In 2011, 2012 and 2013 the Commission added 14 additional sectors and sub-sectors to the first carbon leakage list.

In addition to the above, the ETS Directive also gives the Commission the right to consider and propose a revision in the light of the outcome of international negotiations, based e.g. on new information on which countries are deemed to have committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the relevant sectors or subsectors to an extent comparable of the Community.

It is important to bear in mind that the environmental outcome of the ETS is determined by the overall cap. However, the measures, i.e. higher levels of free allocation, are necessary from the environmental standpoint at the global level to avoid carbon leakage.

The EU ambition to reduce emissions by 21% in the ETS sectors remains unchanged and all sectors will have to contribute to the necessary emissions reductions, regardless whether they are on the list of exposed sectors or not. This will be ensured by the following elements:

• The emissions cap will decline annually to reach a 21% cut in 2020 compared to 2005 and will apply across all sectors.
• The total free allocation to industry is limited to the share of these industries' emissions in 2005 to 2007 and will decline with the emissions cap.
• The absolute number of allowances distributed for free, which are to be shared out among the sectors, is determined by ambitious benchmarks based on the average performance of the 10% most efficient installations in a sector.
• If adding up all the preliminary allocations as calculated based on the benchmarks would lead to an overshooting of the maximum amount, a so called "cross sectoral correction factor" will be applied.

Although such sectors are not among the activities explicitly mentioned in Annex I of the Directive, some installations in these sectors can be covered by the ETS due to their combustion units. Although they may not be energy-intensive, many qualify on the list of sectors deemed as exposed to a significant risk of carbon leakage due to high trade exposure.

In any case, only installations included in the ETS would receive free allowances, and only an amount corresponding to their relatively low combustion emissions from production of heat up to the level of a benchmark.

The particular treatment will be provided to installations in sectors or sub-sectors that are deemed to be exposed to a significant risk of "carbon leakage" – relocation of production outside the EU – because they face competition from industries in third countries which are not subject to comparable greenhouse gas emissions restrictions. Installations within the mentioned sectors or sub-sectors will receive free allowance allocation up to 100% of the relevant benchmark until 2020, while installations that are not deemed to be exposed to a significant risk of carbon leakage will receive an allowance allocation up to 80% of the relevant benchmark in 2013, falling to 30% in 2020.

It should be noted, that due to the economic crisis and related emissions reductions, most energy intensive sectors covered by the EU ETS have accumulated a significant surplus of free allowances, since allocations were not reduced accordingly. Together with the current low level of carbon prices, the estimated risk of carbon leakage, in case there would be no free allocation to industry, is considerably lower than what was foreseen when the climate and energy package was adopted in 2009.