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Short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets

Short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets

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Markets and prices
Short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets

The Short-term outlook is based on reflections of market experts within the Directorate General for Agriculture and Rural Development of the European Commission, using the latest data available. It is published three times per year (in late winter, early summer and early autumn).

Latest issue (Spring 2019)

The updated and refreshed short term outlook report, presented as more readable and user friendly, is available now.

Short-term Outlook for EU agricultural markets in 2018 and 2019

Statistical annex (PDF)

Statistical annex (Excel)

EU balance sheets and production details by Member State

Methodolgy

Highlights

  • Cereals, oilseeds and sugar areas in the EU-28 are expected to decline in 2019/2020 to around 70.7 million ha. On the basis of historical trend yields, the EU cereals harvest would reach 308 million t.
  • Lower 2018/2019 sugar production results in lower EU exports. Sugar prices remain low despite balanced world market and EU sugar beet area is forecast to decrease by 4% in 2019/2020.
  • Due to the increase in EU olive oil production in 2018/2019, the strong world demand for olive oil and lower availabilities in non-EU countries are expected to lead to record high EU exports.
  • The EU raw milk price is supported by global demand and it is expected to lead to further production growth in 2019 (assuming normal weather conditions).   
  • EU beef production is expected to decline in 2019 (‑1.3%), following a drop in cow herds accelerated by the poor weather conditions in 2018. Beef consumption is likely to fall in 2019.  
  • The level of EU pigmeat exports in 2019 is uncertain and highly dependent on the magnitude of Chinese demand expansion, which currently pushes prices up.
  • Poultry production grew significantly in 2018 driven by reduced chicken breast imports, growth will moderate in 2019 as imports begin to recover and prices adjust.
  • Sheep meat production is expected to continue to fall in 2019 (-1%), following a decline in flocks and fewer lamb births amid weather conditions in 2018.

Related information

>> MARS Bulletins on crop monitoring and weather forecast (JRC-IES)

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